Brown Still Has Tough Road in Special Election

Nate Silver looks at new polling showing the recently-defeated Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) as the heavy favorite in a special election to replace Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) — who is likely to become Secretary of State — but notes “it is difficult to view Mr. Brown as much better than even money: he is a Republican in Massachusetts who lost an election by a reasonably clear margin just last month.”

“And if Mr. Brown wins, he could well face another competitive election in November 2014, when Democrats will have more chance to gear up from the race – and when Mr. Patrick will have finished his second term as governor and might be more likely to run for the Senate.

Harry Enten: “Even if Brown were to win in 2013, he’d face another election in
2014: the seat currently occupied by Kerry is due for its regular
election in 2014. A Republican winning a Senate seat in Massachusetts
three times in five years could be considered equivalent to Adam Sandler
winning an Oscar three times in five years.”