Could There Be a Wave in 2014?

Charlie Cook: “Republicans have made no progress in
improving their party’s standing with the electorate overall, or for
that matter with minorities, women, young voters, and those
self-described moderates. Social and cultural issues continue to plague
their party among many young and some women voters. Intransigence among
conservatives in the party seems to be preventing the GOP congressional
leadership from trying to lance the immigration boil. Even deeper cuts
in discretionary domestic spending are providing considerable cannon
fodder for Democratic media consultants, who are preparing ads for next
year. Not to mention that a government shutdown would be considerably
more likely to damage Republicans than Democrats.”

“On the other hand,
voters increasingly seem to have hit the mute button on President Obama.
They are no longer listening to him, and his approval numbers seem to
be dropping by about a point every three weeks. This does not seem to be
because of any of the so-called scandals that got Republicans so worked
up during the winter and spring, but more because voters have a
perception of Obama as a not particularly effective leader. They tend to
give him points for having good intentions on most issues, but they see
him as ineffectual. Add to that growing concern over the Affordable
Care Act, with only a third of Americans telling pollsters that it will
help the nation’s health care situation, and less than a quarter who
believe that it will help their own family’s health care.”