No Wave Coming in 2014

John Sides: “Prognostications about the upcoming midterm election are coming fast and furious. The bullishness about the Democrats’ prospects, so frequently expressed (and exaggerated) during the government shutdown, is gone. Current forecasts typically range from ‘a midterm headache for Democrats’ to ‘a midterm nightmare’ for Democrats and possibly even another Republican wave. But at this moment, what’s most likely is something less dramatic, at least as far as the House of Representatives is concerned. An early version of this blog’s forecasting model suggests that there will be only a small shift in House seats in 2014 — one more likely to advantage Republicans than Democrats, but one that will fall far short of a wave.”

For another perspective on 2014, listen to our recent conversation with Larry Sabato:

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