Nate Cohn: “Very few incumbent senators lose re-election in states as favorable as Kentucky, period. Since 1956, only one incumbent senator has lost re-election in a state more favorable than Kentucky under any circumstance. That senator was Ted Stevens, who was convicted on seven counts of corruption just one week before the 2008 election, in a tough year for Republicans. Despite all of that, he lost by only one percentage point. He is the exception that seems to prove the rule.”
“Mr. McConnell, of course, is not a convicted felon. And unlike Mr. Stevens, Mr. McConnell comfortably won re-election in worst-case circumstances in 2008, just one month after shepherding TARP, the bank bailout package, to passage in the Senate. Since then, Mr. Obama has alienated eastern Kentucky’s coal country, traditionally the most Democratic-leaning stretch of the state. Without those voters, it is unclear whether there’s still a path to victory for Democrats seeking federal office.”
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