How 2014 Isn’t Like 2010

Charlie Cook: “President Obama’s job-approval rating–generally bouncing around between 43 percent and 45 percent–is about where it was going into the 2010 midterms, when Democrats suffered devastating losses of 63 seats in the House and six seats in the Senate.”

“But many other current circumstances aren’t quite like 2010. In 2006, Democrats picked up 31 House seats, and then another 21 in 2008, setting the party up for big House losses in 2010. Since those 2010 losses, Democrats picked up only eight House seats in 2012, so in 2014 they aren’t carrying a huge number of seats in difficult districts. Putting aside the fact that 96 percent of Democratic House members are in districts that Obama carried in 2012, a basic axiom in politics is that you can’t lose a seat that you’ve already lost. Having lost so many seats in 2010, Democrats can’t lose them again.”