Midterm Forecasts Still Vary Widely

The Upshot says Democrats have a 58% chance of retaining control of the U.S. Senate after the midterm elections. Meanwhile, Election Lab says Republicans have a 77% chance to win control.

Why the big difference?

Vox: “If you’ve been following elections in recent years, it’s probably been drilled into you that averages of polls are usually quite accurate near the end of the campaign. But the election is still 6 months away, and polling is infrequent in many races — which presents a problem for anyone trying to forecast election results now. To address this, election forecasters incorporate broader political factors called ‘fundamentals’ into their models.”