Assessing the Battle for the Senate

Reid Wilson: “Here’s the rough consensus on Democratic seats (the higher the rank, the more likely a seat is to change control): Montana will flip by the widest margin. West Virginia. South Dakota. Louisiana. Arkansas. Alaska. Iowa. Colorado. Michigan. North Carolina. Minnesota. Oregon (Some Democrats say North Carolina should come before Iowa and Colorado). The consensus among Republican seats: Kansas is the most likely to change control. Then Georgia. Then Kentucky.”

“The shorthand takeaway: Alaska is the Republicans’ 51st seat. If Kansas flips, it’s all about Iowa.”

Charlie Cook: “My hunch is that this is not a year when Democrats are likely to get a disproportionate share of the breaks. I’m sticking with the 60 percent chance of a Senate turnover that I’ve held for several months.”

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