October, 2014

A new Quinnipiac University poll in Florida finds Charlie Crist (D) inching in front of his Gov. Rick Scott (R) in the gubernatorial race, 43% to 40%.

“It’s not so much about what could be passed but setting the agenda and debate for the next presidential race.”

— Rep. Steve King (R-IA), quoted by the Daily Beast, on the advantage of the GOP taking control of the U.S. Senate.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “While many races remain close, it’s just getting harder and harder to envision a plausible path for the Democrats to retain control of the Senate. Ultimately, with just a few days to go before the election, the safe bet would be on Republicans eventually taking control of the upper chamber.”

“We say eventually because there’s a decent chance we won’t know who wins the Senate on Election Night. Louisiana is guaranteed to go to a runoff, and Georgia seems likelier than not to do the same.”

“In the final days before the election, Democrats in the closest Senate races across the South are turning to racially charged messages — invoking Trayvon Martin’s death, the unrest in Ferguson, Mo., and Jim Crow-era segregation — to jolt African-Americans into voting and stop a Republican takeover in Washington,” the New York Times reports.

“The images and words they are using are striking for how overtly they play on fears of intimidation and repression. And their source is surprising. The effort is being led by national Democrats and their state party organizations — not, in most instances, by the shadowy and often untraceable political action committees that typically employ such provocative messages.”

A new EPIC-MRA poll in Michigan finds Gov. Rick Snyder (R) has only a two-point lead over challenger Mark Schauer (D), 45% to 43%.

With undecideds put into the mix, the race is a 46% to 46% tie.

A new Marquette University Law School Poll in Wisconsin finds Gov. Scott Walker (R) opening a lead over challenger Mary Burke (D) among likely voters, 50% to 43%.

The previous poll found the race tied at 47%.

A new Monmouth University poll in Georgia finds David Perdue (R) leading Michelle Nunn (D) by a solid margin, 49% to 41%.

In the race for governor, Gov. Nathan Deal (R) leads challenger Jason Carter (D), 48% to 42%.

A new Harvard IOP poll finds that 51% of young Americans who say they will “definitely be voting” in November prefer a Republican-run Congress with 47% favoring Democrat control – a significant departure from IOP polling findings before the last midterm elections.

“I’m not like really freaking out about this decision, to be honest with you.”

— Jeb Bush, quoted by the Tennessean, on running for president in 2016.

New Orleans Times-Picayune: “Political observers say even if he never bothered to leave his house in Gonzales, the inclusion of ‘Edwin Edwards’ on the ballot in such a crowded field of Republicans with low-to-moderate name recognition would propel the ex-governor and former federal inmate into the runoff for Senate candidate Rep. Bill Cassidy’s seat.”

“But Edwards hasn’t stayed home. He’s been on the road at voter doorways, shaking hands with restaurant patrons on the way to his table, dropping one-liners and platform ideas at candidate debates and popping by council chambers and church fairs with regularity.”

Maine candidate for governor Eliot Cutler (I) will hold a press conference this morning to address his chances in the race, the Portland Press Herald reports.

“The independent, who narrowly lost to Gov. Paul LePage four years ago, has been unable to make any gains in public polls to date and also has scaled back on advertising in recent weeks. Supporters of Democrat Mike Michaud have been calling on Cutler to drop out of the race for weeks over fear that he will only help re-elect LePage if he stays in.”

Public Policy Polling: “The biggest factor in this race remaining so close is that Cutler, consistently in a distant third place, is continuing to siphon off enough of the anti-LePage vote to keep the contest in toss-up range.”