2016 Is All About Hillary

Morning Line: “In many ways, the 2016 election is all about Hillary Clinton. She leads in all the polls. Republicans have been taking aim at her since she stepped down as secretary of state. The day after the midterm elections, Republicans were saying that her policies were on the ballot, too. Some in the media want to create drama in a Democratic primary, because why not? So there will be lots of coverage of Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb and the mysterious candidate who could ultimately derail Clinton’s nomination (will Elizabeth Warren re-think it, etc.) Problem with that narrative is there’s no Barack Obama this year, and Warren has said definitively she won’t run this year. The only wildcard is if Clinton has a change of heart or has a prohibitive health issue. And then, what do Democrats do?”

“The Republican race, on the other hand, is setting up to be another long, drawn-out primary process. The GOP has a good problem — unlike Democrats, they have a deep bench. But they also have a continued presidential primary problem — the internecine conflict between the conservative and establishment wings. What’s happened predictably in the last two elections is the establishment candidate has won out, but gets pulled to the right (see John McCain on immigration, Mitt Romney on, well, almost everything). That is going to continue to play out.”