Joshua Green: “When Cruz declared he was running for president last year, he was as unpopular in Washington as Clinton was popular at the outset of her first run. The certainty about their respective prospects was also about the same — Jeb Bush was the candidate whom Washington insiders expected to win the GOP nomination this cycle; Cruz was regarded as a fringe candidate of the far right.”
“But as they often do in politics, events have a way of interfering with our preconceptions. Bush flopped, and, until recently, Trump looked like the strongest candidate in the field… In the end, it may not matter. If Trump can’t secure the 1,237 delegates necessary to win the nomination by June 7, Republicans will probably head to an open convention in July. Trump will start out in the lead, but after the first ballot, many of his delegates will be free to support another candidate. Were the candidate to be chosen by Washington Republicans, it would almost certainly be a figure like Bush — or, more likely, House Speaker Paul Ryan.”
“But by and large, these delegates are state and local party officials from around the country who don’t see things the way their counterparts in Washington do. By piling up wins in states like Wisconsin, Cruz gains strength, support, and credibility in the eyes of these Republicans. If Trump comes up short, they’re likely to back Cruz and deliver the same kind of rebuke to their party’s Washington establishment as Democrats did by choosing Obama eight years ago.”
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