Why Hillary Clinton Will Win

Tom Toles: “Because the Republican party is not the same as the U.S. population. Yes there is overlap, and yes everyone feels the goosebumps of an idiot breaking all the rules and getting applause for it, but We’re Not There Yet. The American public, for all its waywardness and depravity and reality-show slumming, has not yet thrown in the towel on trying to have a republic and make it work, the Republican party notwithstanding.”

“Donald Trump is a charlatan and a dangerous one, and this will become abundantly clear as the rest of the campaign unfolds. He can threaten the media and wave his whatever-sized hands all he wants, but it is no big mystery as to what he really is, and barring a level of economic and social dysfunction significantly greater than what we have now, he will go down, and go down in flames.”

For members: New Model Forecasts a Clinton Blow Out

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  • YvonneofNC

    Trump forgot a cardinal rule: don’t pick fights with people who buy ink by the barrel.

    As soon as the press stops transcribing and starts reporting, he’s done. Of course, this won’t matter to his supporters. Good thing there aren’t enough of them to elect a president.

    • Alki

      You’re 100% right. I’m just sad we’ll miss a good political fight. We’ll always have the primaries…

    • Inkan1969

      But will they stop?

    • Chammy

      I agree. I think he has picked the wrong fight. He actually called the ABC newsperson sleazy. The press hates when you insult them and get very defensive.

      • L2thaL

        ABC will also want to protect their integrity. Calling one of their reporters a sleaze just did the exact opposite. I love it.

        • And other journalists and media outlets will also do the same, both to defend their institution, even their competitition, and because now their competition will be writing the compelling stories that they will have to match. 🙂

    • lookolook

      “As soon as the press stops transcribing and starts reporting, he’s done”.

      Like that phrase or sentence a lot.

  • Pierre Musson

    Well said and a refreshing screed of sense opposed to the pathetic conformist narrative permeating the media.

  • Krusher

    I wish I had Tom Toles’ faith in my fellow citizens. Logically, Trump SHOULD go down in flames, but I’m afraid logic is no longer a quality that a lot of people have.

    • Chammy

      They voted for Obama twice and Romney was a much more palatable candidate. I do have faith in the american voter – the 42-42% of the republican base aside. He cannot win with their votes alone

      • Trajan8

        I have faith that there are virtually no individuals who voted for Obama in 2008/2012 yet this cycle will vote for the most vocal proponent of the birther conspiracy.

        • bruin1953

          Soft Obama voters in ’08 may vote for Trump in ’16, but they probably have already voted R in ’12.

          • RG 5626

            I don’t worry about Obama voters switching votes as much as I worry about Obama voters staying home on election day. Hillary does not excite the way Obama does.

          • Curt Richardson

            Obama is planning on campaigning heavily to make sure that doesn’t happen.

    • Allan Williams

      I share your concern. In a sane and just world, Trump would have been booed, jeered, and laughed off the stage long ago.

      • lostintheswamp

        he was in a primary where too many gop primary voters think exactly what trump said out loud … the other primary candidates went too easy on him – bush being the only one really who took trump on early – because they wanted to make sure that they didn’t alienate his voters … the dems have no such issue, thankfully …..

      • Kevin Rusch

        Well, the reason he wasn’t booed off the stage is that he’s no less qualified than the rest of the GOP field. Policy-wise they’re all the same, all stomping over each other to say they’d bomb Iran, kill muslims, and round up immigrants. The only difference is that trump said it in a more entertaining style. Hopefully that won’t fly with the rest of the country, but we’ll see.

  • spiff

    And the Right in their reality bubble will no doubt refute this as a liberal commie pinko bias. In other words exactly where we want them, thinking they can win.

  • mhandrh

    I really enjoy Toles’ comics and his comments today are most encouraging. I hope he proves to be correct.

  • dionysus_finch

    This will likely be attacked, and I know who by, but one negative for the Donald that I don’t think has been talked about a lot yet is the type of person who makes up the alleged “political newcomers” supporting him. Now, if traditional Republicans really do coalesce around him as Enten has suggested that will be important, but I don’t know if it’s enough unless he can also motivate these supposed “previously apathetic” blue collar whites in the Rust Belt. I could be wrong but I don’t see these people as having lengthy attention spans, these voracious consumers of reality TV and competitive hand-to-hand combat. It could be just me but I feel like his weekly rants will grow stale to them over the next five months and he’ll be hard-pressed to say something ever more outrageous than the last to keep them engaged. Trump Fatigue could be a real thing.

    • embo66

      My understanding is that Trump is NOT bringing in many “political newcomers.” All the available data indicates that what Trump did was get a lot of regular Republicans to vote in the primaries for the first time. But they are not new to politics or to voting Republican.

      • Curt Richardson

        According to one pollster who analyzed the data from the primaries, Trump only brought in new voters in one state. NH-about 6%

  • Inkan1969

    His word to God’s ear…

  • timpundit

    I agree, of course. And I will also eat every pixel if I am wrong and Trump is elected. Hopefully, those pixels will be poisonous.

  • Stephen Evermore

    Didn’t Trump win all of the open primaries? Would that run counter to the argument above?

    • moderatesunite

      1. Conald Trump didn’t win all the open primaries he lost several of them(like Ohio).
      2. No it wouldn’t even if true Primary and general elections are entirely different animals

      • Stephen Evermore

        Ok, so he won *most* of the open primaries. And yes, I get that primaries and the general are different, but why wouldn’t similar statistics apply?

        • DKDC

          First sentence.

          “Because the Republican party is not the same as the U.S. population.”

          • Stephen Evermore

            Yes, that’s why my comment is about the open primaries.

          • nor are people who vote in GOP primaries regardless of registration.

          • Stormageddon Bloodstar

            It’s a legitimate concern on some level. But there are a few caveats. One, what was his winning percentage in those states? Under 50%? Two, there is a chunk of Republican leaning ‘independents’ that vote republican 90+% of the time, they would tend to vote outsider. And they did. Three: Trump has been operating with low information voters, that will change once it’s down to the Democrats, Republicans, and the libertarians, greens, And maybe France for minor parties.

            When the debate is just two or three people, Trump will have more difficulty hiding his ignorance and volatility.

          • Marc83

            It helps when his opponents are from the same party and can’t attack crazy ideas that are orthodoxy in the party. Try that on a stage with Clinton. She’ll go into the nuts and bolts of why his tax plan is fantasy and will bankrupt us. She’ll put a cost to his ideas. Meanwhile, he’ll engage in some non sequitur or rambling character attack on his opponent. Hint: it won’t look very dignified, let alone presidential. Every exchange will go like this, the key is that the follow up needs to involve Clinton reframing, “So, to repeat. You have no concrete answer as to how you’re going to make this happen. We should just trust you to shower us in wealth like the Trump university students.”

        • JamesInCA

          Democrats and Democratic-leaners were busy voting for Democrats in the open primaries. I suppose if you wanted to, you could go compare absolute vote numbers for all candidates on both sides in those primaries, and provisionally allocate voters for the previous candidates to the two nominees, but you’re still left with the problem that the primary electorate is different than the general.

  • Stormageddon Bloodstar

    If Daesh wants to bring down America, a massive terror attack in October on US soil is the ticket.

    President Trump would further their goal faster than anything else they could do.

    • BarryR

      That is the great fear – the one thing that could turn things around.

      • Curt Richardson

        Who would you want in charge if that were to happen?

    • The interests of terrorist groups and the American right-wing have been disturbingly aligned for some time now.

  • 802walker

    God I hope so! I haven’t lost hope yet.

  • Vera

    Hope you’re right, Boo-Boo, I hope you’re right.

  • Chammy
  • bpai99

    Hitler was similarly dismissed before being elected democratically.

  • APV

    If he continues down this path, how many elected Republicans will stand next to him after the convention and after the debates? How many mainstream Republicans will still be motivated to come out and vote for him if it becomes obvious that he is going to lose (either because they are too embarrassed or he does not stand for the party orthodoxy) by big margins in the blue/blue-leaning states? Running a scorched earth, ‘stop Hillary/stop Obama’s 3rd term’ negative campaign will only bring in limited dividends for the Republicans. Can Congressional Republicans distance themselves enough without Trump & his supporters turning on them too?

    • ryp

      With polls indicating that 85% of Republicans are now on board with Trump, very few up for re-election will distance themselves fully from him.

      The Democrats should work hard to remind voters that Trump is the Republican party.

      • APV

        But for Republican senate candidates running in states like PA, OH, NH, and FL, they cannot win with just Republican votes. Even in those same polls, Trump is under performing 2012 Romney by 9-11 points among white married women and suburban voters.

        • ryp

          That is their dilemma. I’m sure these purple state senators would rather ignore Trump, but Trump will be campaigning in their states, and if they are not there at the rallies, he will be sure to mention it. If they distance themselves too much, the Trump voters will get angry with them, but if they get too close, independents will be turned off, and many of these candidates lack the personality to run as their own man or woman.

          • APV

            Many of these Republicans have subpar approval ratings and ‘deserves to be reelected’ numbers, so cannot afford to lose any Republican votes. But they have to answer to cross-over and independent voters why Trump has the temperament and judgement to appoint Scalia’s replacement when Obama, who was elected twice from their states, should not make that appointment.

  • LarryBurt

    I hope, along with all Trump’s negatives, we start to see better coverage of Clinton’s positives. No one is perfect in every way (well, maybe Mary Poppins), but Hillary is probably the most highly qualified to-get-the-job-done candidate we’ve seen in very many years, if not ever.

    • Chammy

      And that will become more clear after HRC is the nominee and our convention. The big ammo hasn’t even been launched yet.

    • lostintheswamp

      i think even mary poppins measured herself as ‘practically’ perfect … can’t really remember if that’s the exact term, but she left a little room for imperfection …

  • littlejohn

    Whatever-sized hands…I love it!

  • docb

    Well and accurately put! The ladies at CNN are kicking it and shutdown the tRump liars daily! Fact checking the lies and deflection daily…

  • GatorLegal1

    Toles’ op-ed is pretty short, which is unfortunate, as he could have included a laundry list of any number of reasons why he’s probably right that Trump won’t win, but he mentions only a few of them.

    • Pat52

      Even shorter: Clinton will win. It won’t be close.

      • GatorLegal1

        I sure hope you and Toles are right, but I’ve seen too many strange things happen to take the outcome for granted.

        Gonna do my part like I’ve done every two years since Kerry ’04, and pound the pavement to meet and greet voters. I have a feeling this year will be harder than those years. Kerry, while not victorious, had generally OK favorability; and Obama won twice. For whatever reasons, people don’t like Hillary as much, so I’m preparing for a lot of doors shut in my face! 😛

        • Pat52

          That’s the nature of the beast. You can count on 40% of voters being for the other gentleman/lady no matter what the match up.

          Trump’s personality won’t allow him to do what he needs to do to win. The Clintons have their own issues, but they’re nowhere near as great an impediment to doing what needs to be done.

          Barring something truly extraordinary (Strange is a given.) Trump loses badly.

  • growe

    Three day homecoming tour of Arkansas.
    Hillary loves farmers tour of the Great Plains.
    Enjoy your cornbread but have a New York income tour of the South.

    So many novel avenues Hillary could travel on the Dump Trump campaign tour.
    I hope her advisers are thinking damn big, this is a golden opportunity.

    Let Trump sit Tweeting on his 24 carat shitter calling into lame news shows.
    Iron those pantsuits, shine the sensible shoes, hit the ground running hard, Mrs Clinton!

  • growe

    I’d love to see a poll quizzing how many voters have even started to clue in on Conald Dump, even start to know why his candidacy is and will end as a joke.

    How many have heard of Trump University lawsuits? 20, 30 percent?
    How many heard him drooling he would date his own daughter? 15, 20 percent?
    Muslim ban? Mass deportations? Abuse of bankruptcy? Hidden tax records?

    Guess what folks? I bet none of Conald Dump’s Biggest Bullshit is known by 50%, yet.
    I do believe Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton will lead the pack spreading the word.

  • jgrillo

    Really, I need a Tom Toles (whoever the heck he is) to tell me Hillary is going to win? That’s a brilliant piece of crap article and if there was ever such a thing as Capt. Obvious, Tom Toles would get the first promotion.

  • Tom’s considered opinion overlooks the inherent stupidity of the American people. To his detriment. If Reagan can get elected, you can bet your sweet bippy that Bozo sure in hell can, too.

  • realnrh

    Because there’s an entire campaign season for knee-jerk Republicans who aren’t entire insane to back away once they realize what Trump is saying. Because Trump isn’t going to win any states that went for Obama, and makes several red states vulnerable. Because, basically, Don the Con is looking for absolutely anything he can do that will create an ‘outside event’ that he can blame for his inevitable collapse.