Democratic pollster Mark Mellman writes that on the fundamentals, “this should be at best a very close race, with at least a slight Republican lean. But candidates can make a difference, and surely are in this instance.”
“Trump’s concerted efforts to alienate large swaths of America have consequences. His repeated dishonesty matters. The fact that most voters believe his character and temperament disqualify him from the highest office in the land is significant. He is the most unpopular major party candidate for president in the history of polling, by far.”
“Models tell us what happens on the average, in the main. But Donald Trump has ensured that this is not an ‘average’ election. He has turned what could have been an opportunity for Republicans into not just an uphill but an up-mountain climb.”
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