Nate Cohn: “The Democrats of 2006 did well in Republican-leaning districts with help from scandals that brought down members of Congress who otherwise would have been unlikely to lose re-election. The list is not short: Tom DeLay, Mark Foley, Bob Ney, Don Sherwood — for starters. Democrats can’t count on the same thing this year, and Republicans in 2010 did not do as well in Democratic-leaning areas.”
“With these underlying advantages, it would not be surprising if the Republican House majority lasted for at least a decade. The structural advantages underpinning it are that strong. The odds of a Clinton presidency are strong, too — and a Democratic White House would probably strengthen the Republican hold on the House, given the tendency for the president’s party to struggle down-ballot. If Democrats are going to retake the House anytime soon, November would probably be their best shot, and as of now it’s not happening.”
Related for members: Clinton Could Face Even Worse Gridlock
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