Undecided Voters May Decide the Election

New York Times: “Since the Democratic convention in late July, Mrs. Clinton has led in all but one live-interview poll in a combination of states worth a total of 272 electoral votes, two over the 270 needed to win. Her favorable states include those that went for the Democrats John Kerry in 2004 and Al Gore in 2000, minus Maine’s Second Congressional District, plus New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia and Colorado.”

“In a sense, this is reminiscent of 2012. President Obama had what was called a Midwestern firewall: a lead in the Kerry-Gore states, plus Nevada, New Mexico and Ohio — worth a total of 271 electoral votes. Like Mrs. Clinton’s edge, Mr. Obama’s lead in these states was occasionally quite narrow. But there was never a point where Mitt Romney was tied or ahead there, and the same is true for Mr. Trump.”

“But there’s one big difference: the number of voters who say they’re undecided or support a minor-party candidate. Strictly by the numbers, a three-point lead is not especially robust when 15 or even 20 percent of voters are either undecided or say they support a minor-party candidate.”

Wall Street Journal: Wavering voters are key to the race