First Read says there are two big questions that could determine how this looming shutdown plays politically:
Which party has more bipartisan cover? Do a handful of GOP senators (including Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Mike Rounds (R-SD) side with Democrats in rejecting the House stopgap measure? If so, that will make it MUCH harder for Republicans to argue Democrats are shutting down the government. Conversely, do more red-state Dems (Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) Claire McCaskill (D-MO) vote for the House CR?
How are the players conducting themselves? As the 1995-1996 shutdown proved, behavior (we’re looking at you, Newt Gingrich) can influence public opinion). So we ask again: Is Trump really going to Mar-A-Lago if the government shuts down?

