Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “We can’t necessarily assume that the shape of the race would be much different if the alignment of candidates changed. If Bloomberg or Pete Buttigieg or Elizabeth Warren or Amy Klobuchar or other candidates dropped out today, it’s not a sure thing that their supporters would completely flock to non-Sanders candidates.”
“Sanders is well-liked by Democrats, and recently he has been leading other contenders in hypothetical one-on-one matchups. An Associated Press-NORC poll conducted in the aftermath of the New Hampshire primary showed Sanders with the best favorability among Democrats of any of the candidates. While Democratic elites are starting to sound the alarms about Sanders and his potential weaknesses against Donald Trump, the Democratic rank and file seems fairly comfortable with him as the nominee.”
“The other candidates, and party leaders who are worried about Sanders’ ability to lead the Democratic ticket, have precious little time to make Democratic voters as uncomfortable with Sanders as some of them seem to be. Otherwise, he’s going to be the nominee, and Republicans will work to turn Democratic fears about Sanders’ far-left politics into realities.”
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