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70,000 More Americans Will Die Before Inauguration Day

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Jonathan Last wrote on December 4: “Well, we have had 3.4 million new cases in the 21 days since 12 November. If Trevor’s 1.6% CFR still holds, you end up with 54,000 deaths over the next 21 days. Merry Christmas.”

Here’s his update: “Our reported death total for that 21 day span from December 3 to December 24 was 52,584. Pretty close to the pin.”

“We got that projection by using a Case Fatality Rate of 1.6 percent and applying it to the new case count of the preceding three weeks. Now do the math looking three weeks out from here: Over the last 21 days we’ve had 4.38 million new cases. So we should expect roughly 70,000 more deaths between now and January 20.”

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goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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