70,000 More Americans Will Die Before Inauguration Day

Jonathan Last wrote on December 4: “Well, we have had 3.4 million new cases in the 21 days since 12 November. If Trevor’s 1.6% CFR still holds, you end up with 54,000 deaths over the next 21 days. Merry Christmas.”

Here’s his update: “Our reported death total for that 21 day span from December 3 to December 24 was 52,584. Pretty close to the pin.”

“We got that projection by using a Case Fatality Rate of 1.6 percent and applying it to the new case count of the preceding three weeks. Now do the math looking three weeks out from here: Over the last 21 days we’ve had 4.38 million new cases. So we should expect roughly 70,000 more deaths between now and January 20.”