David Wasserman calculates that Republican candidates for New Jersey State Senate outperformed the 2020 Biden/Trump results in the districts by a median 10.8 points.
In races for Virginia’s House of Delegates, the GOP beat the 2020 by a median 12.4 points.
“If Republicans were to outperform the 2020 Biden/Trump margin by 10.8 points (New Jersey) in all 435 House seats in 2022, they would pick up 44 House seats for a 257R-178D majority.”
“If they were to outperform by 12.3 points (Virginia), they would pick up a mammoth 51 seats for a 261R-174D split — and that’s not even factoring redistricting, which could help boost GOP fortunes even more.”

