A Really Tough Election to Forecast

Stuart Rothenberg: “I’ve seen more than a few election cycles, but I’m not certain I have seen many that are more confusing than the one we are now in…”

“It has been relatively easy to handicap individual races and entire election cycles when nothing out of the ordinary happens. In those cases, the old rules still apply. But it’s more difficult to sketch out the trajectory of an election when outlandish events occur — and outlandish events seem to have occurred each day since Donald Trump announced he was running for president in 2016…”

“Yes, I know what the old rules of thumb say is going to happen in the 2022 midterms. And I haven’t given up entirely on those old rules. But we live in such a crazy time that I have no idea where the country is headed.”