Charlie Cook: “In trying to figure out who is likely to win an election, it’s important to remember that one is trying to predict human behavior about something that is certain to be affected by events that have yet to occur. At least in the old days, it was easier for pollsters to be confident that they had reached a reasonably fair cross section of the electorate; now that is not so clear either, despite plenty of methodological tweaking. It is with this in mind that I marvel at those who seem to be supremely confident that they know what will happen on Nov. 8, or Dec. 6 if a runoff is needed in Georgia’s Senate race…”
“The unprecedented situation of this midterm election and the volatility we have seen over the last few months demand a bit of humility employed in this year’s prognostication. It isn’t a bad thing any year, but this year in particular.”
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