The Senate Battleground

Karl Rove: “The four most critical contests are the GOP defense of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and the Republican offense in Nevada and Georgia. To win, the GOP candidates don’t need to be the most popular, just more in tune with what voters care about. Victory depends on raising the negatives of Democrats on vital issues. Polls say that’s happening. But is there enough time and sufficient resources to get the job done? And who feels truly confident in the polls? Anyone?”

“The three most plausible scenarios are a 50-50 Senate, 51-49 Republican or 51-49 Democrat. A 52-48 Senate either way is possible but unlikely. My gut tells me the GOP will prevail 51-49 because of the political climate, issues and midterm swing. That may be my natural optimism, but then again, it’s tempered by my Norwegian heritage. Key races are still up in the air. The next 4½ weeks will be rocky, and Nov. 8 a long night.”