“President Donald Trump’s tariffs will cost global businesses upward of $1.2 trillion in 2025, with most of the cost being passed onto consumers,” CNBC reports.
Analysis from S&P Global “says that just one-third will be borne by companies, with the rest falling on the shoulders of consumers, under conservative estimates.”
“The military commander overseeing the Pentagon’s escalating attacks against boats in the Caribbean Sea that the Trump administration says are smuggling drugs is stepping down,” the New York Times reports.
“The officer, Adm. Alvin Holsey, is leaving his job as head of the U.S. Southern Command, which oversees all operations in Central and South America, even as the Pentagon has rapidly built up some 10,000 forces in the region in what it says is a major counterdrug and counterterrorism mission.”
“It was unclear why Admiral Holsey is leaving now, less than a year into his tenure, and in the midst of the biggest operation in his 37-year career.”
“Billionaires are donating heavily in the waning days of the New York City mayor’s race to stop Democratic frontrunner Zohran Mamdani,” USA Today reports.
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“Long before Republicans and Democrats reached the stalemate that has shut down the government, President Trump made it clear that he was willing to ignore Congress’s constitutional power to allocate federal spending,” the New York Times reports.
“So as the shutdown enters its third week with no resolution in sight, it has become increasingly evident to lawmakers in both parties that one serious obstacle to striking a spending deal to reopen the government is the possibility — maybe even certainty — that Mr. Trump will simply turn around and ignore it, as he has repeatedly ignored Congress’s will on spending this year.”
“When presidential contenders or congressional hopefuls flame out and abandon their campaigns, they often prepare to fight another day or simply fade away,” NOTUS reports.
“But a few of these old campaigns experience a different fate, morphing into deadbeat zombie operations — technically still alive and functioning, but unable to pay their numerous bills to various creditors.”
“New filings with the Federal Election Commission show just how much some politicos owe for old campaigns, including those of a current Trump administration official and an an MSNBC television host.”
“The Democrat Party’s main constituency is made up of Hamas terrorists, illegal aliens, and violent criminals.”
— White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, on Fox News.
The Federalist obtained a voicemail from then Sen. Joe Biden to Justice Clarence Thomas’ answering machine praising him as a “person of character” just after his confirmation to the Supreme Court.
“Three B-52 bombers took off from Barksdale AFB in Louisiana on Wednesday and flew for hours near the coast of Venezuela, according to flight tracking data, in what appears to be a major show of force by President Donald Trump,” ABC News reports.
“Senate Democrats on Thursday turned an annual Pentagon funding bill into the collateral damage of a fierce shutdown battle, blocking the legislation as they pressed for an agreement that includes their domestic priorities,” Politico reports.
“The defense funding bill — including a military pay raise — fell far short of the 60 votes needed to advance. All but three Democrats opposed the move by Republicans to open debate on the bill. It failed in a 50-44 vote, as many Democrats argued the Senate should instead focus on a deal to end the shutdown.”
Time: “While Democrats in races across the country are bracing for Mamdani to come up in opponents’ attack ads and fundraising ploys, it’s unclear how much of it will resonate outside of the Big Apple. Conversations with players in both parties reveal that Republicans’ drive to lash Mamdani’s brand of politics to Democratic contenders thus far has been a mixed bag.”
“Some Republicans quietly concede that Mamdani is tough to cast as the architect of Democrats’ national strategy. The sharp 33-year-old state legislator may be in the center of the media universe, but no one looks at New York Mayors as the deciding force inside the Democratic Party…”
“Another rub: even New Yorkers don’t know who Mamdani is, let alone most voters beyond the boroughs. In a Quinnipiac poll released last week, 19% of likely New York City voters said they hadn’t heard enough about him to even have an opinion of him. Nationally, he’s even less known.”
“The White House’s political operation is telling congressional Republicans to hold firm on the government shutdown, citing internal and external polling that show Democrats’ numbers are eroding,” Axios reports.
“Since the shutdown started Oct. 1, Democrats have boasted that public opinion is on their side. But the trend line appears to be shifting, according to internal White House polling data.”
Said one White House aide: “Democrats are taking on water. And we have a higher pain tolerance.”
A new Baltimore Banner poll in Maryland finds Gov. Wes Moore (D) leading in a possible match up with former Gov. Larry Hogan (R), 45% to 37% with another 14% undecided.
Hogan, who served two terms as governor, has dropped social media hints suggesting that he is weighing another campaign.
A new AP-NORC poll shows fairly similar proportions of Americans placing significant onus for the shutdown on Donald Trump at 58%, congressional Republicans at 58% and congressional Democrats at 54%.
President Trump on Truth Social: “If Hamas continues to kill people in Gaza, which was not the Deal, we will have no choice but to go in and kill them.”
“President Donald Trump said Thursday that he’ll meet with Russia’s Vladimir Putin in Hungary to try to resolve the war in Ukraine, but a date has yet to be determined,” the AP reports.
“The top four congressional leaders spent Thursday trading accusations about the existence — or lack thereof — of a formal offer to end the government shutdown, now in its 16th day,” Punchbowl News reports.
“The high-level back-and-forth shows that each side — facing growing pressure to do something as the shutdown grinds on — is still more intent on blaming the opposition for the stalemate than finding a solution.”
One interesting takeaway: “Republicans are bending over backwards to speak to Democratic audiences and present themselves as the reasonable party in the standoff.”
Playbook: “And though there are some glimmers of movement around the edges, both parties continue to look pretty dug in — so the shutdown will likely stretch to at least three full weeks when the Senate reconvenes early next week.”
“President Trump plans to announce a policy proposal on Thursday to make in vitro fertilization more accessible, the first concrete step from the White House on an issue that Mr. Trump repeatedly promised to address on the campaign trail,” the New York Times reports.
“As the government shutdown drags on, many congressional Republicans are in the dark about the Trump administration’s decisions over which federal workers are being laid off and which federal contracts are being cancelled,” CNN reports.
“Multiple GOP lawmakers told CNN they are only finding out about the decisions – which have far-reaching consequences for the constituents they represent – after they’ve been made public.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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