Nate Silver: “I had written a post on Tuesday that challenged the
notion that there was a true ‘anybody but Romney’ constituency among
Republican voters… But now I’m wondering if that is the right
interpretation. Mr. Gingrich’s gain in the polls has occurred so rapidly
that few political writers have taken a step back to analyze it. What’s
interesting, however, is that in each of the first three voting states,
there is a different “not Romney” candidate who has surged late in the
race: Mr. Santorum in Iowa, Jon M. Huntsman Jr. in New Hampshire, and
now Mr. Gingrich in South Carolina… Where I think things become
potentially dangerous for Mr. Romney is when he plays into this tendency
by playing prevent defense, and behaving as though the nomination is
his to lose… Our forecasts now say that Mr. Gingrich has become the
slight favorite to win in South Carolina. We will see whether that comes
to fruition, but Mr. Romney’s prevent defense has allowed Mr. Gingrich
to drive to his 30-yard line.”
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