Robert Pape: “The two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran is being described as a pause in hostilities. That description is misleading. What has occurred is not simply a halt in bombing. It is the clearest indication yet of a shift in power.”

“By the core standard of international politics—who can shape the behavior of others—the outcome is unmistakable. Iran has demonstrated the ability to impose costs on the global system and force adjustment across multiple actors. The United States, despite overwhelming military superiority, has accepted a halt under conditions it cannot fully dictate.”

“This is not equilibrium. It is a reversal.”

Playbook: “For doomster-minded NATO leaders, the redeployment of U.S. troops within the alliance might feel like a win at this point. But in truth, the damage is done. NATO is essentially a confidence trick — it’s worked for 80 years because successive Russian leaders have been left with no doubt that an attack on a single member in Europe would be treated as an attack on America. That certainty is gone, regardless of what Trump does next.”

“Some on the left talk wistfully about rebuilding old alliances once a Democrat regains the White House, but Europe is moving on. It would appear a tall task for a future Democratic or traditionally minded Republican president, elected on a four-year term, to convince a traumatized continent that the old America is back. U.S. politics is not about to become less volatile. European leaders are increasingly convinced they must build a solo future.”

Carolyn Kissane: “There is an old Russian line: a pessimist is a well-informed optimist. This moment calls for that posture. Yes, the ceasefire reduces some risk and buys time. It creates space for negotiations, potentially beginning in Islamabad on Friday. But it does not resolve the underlying drivers of the conflict, nor does it restore confidence in the systems that underpin global energy flows.”

“The takeaway is straightforward. The Gulf is more exposed than it was six weeks ago, and energy security, despite the current sense of relief, remains deeply vulnerable. Markets may welcome the reprieve, but a system this disrupted does not normalize quickly.”

Reuters: “Iranian authorities see the truce with the United States and Israel as a strategic victory, but they emerge battered and isolated with an economy in tatters, little prospect of rapid recovery and an impoverished, embittered population.”

“After weeks of U.S. and Israeli strikes, many Iranians have lost their jobs. Prices have surged. Factories, power ​plants, railways, airports and bridges have been destroyed. And the critical trading relationship with Gulf states has been severed – maybe for decades.”

“The Reuters Iran Briefing newsletter keeps you informed with the latest developments and analysis of the Iran war. Sign up here. “Even as Iran appears emboldened on the regional stage after exerting its control over crucial energy supplies, ‌it faces mounting internal problems that might ultimately pose a greater threat to the Islamic Republic than Israeli or U.S. bombs.”

Bloomberg: “It’s the biggest moment yet of JD Vance’s vice presidency.”

“The VP (who has been conspicuously quiet for much of the Iran war) is suddenly center stage for peace talks.”

“His work turning a shaky ceasefire into a lasting peace could determine the course of the conflict – with all the related human and economic consequences – not to mention his own future, and that of MAGA. No pressure.”

Playbook: “It’s the second day of the ceasefire. Israel is still bombing Lebanon, killing nearly 200 people in downtown Beirut yesterday… Hezbollah is firing rockets straight back. The Strait of Hormuz is still highly restricted, with Iran charging crypto fees for limited access. And there’s no clarity at all on Iran’s nuclear material.”

“The White House insists it’s all going well — though Trump made clear last night the U.S. military remains on standby should it be required.”