A Ceasefire in Name, Not in Practice

Carolyn Kissane: “There is an old Russian line: a pessimist is a well-informed optimist. This moment calls for that posture. Yes, the ceasefire reduces some risk and buys time. It creates space for negotiations, potentially beginning in Islamabad on Friday. But it does not resolve the underlying drivers of the conflict, nor does it restore confidence in the systems that underpin global energy flows.”

“The takeaway is straightforward. The Gulf is more exposed than it was six weeks ago, and energy security, despite the current sense of relief, remains deeply vulnerable. Markets may welcome the reprieve, but a system this disrupted does not normalize quickly.”