“Ukraine’s military attacked the large Taneco oil refinery and the ZapSibNeftekhim petrochemical plant deep inside Russia on Monday, adding to the pressure on the country’s downstream industry,” Bloomberg reports.
Bonus Quote of the Day
“We are only semi-negotiating with them.”
— President Trump, quoted by Axios, no ceasefire negotiations with Iran.
New Rival Forces Italy’s Meloni Back to Her Far-Right Roots
“Giorgia Meloni doesn’t want to be beaten at her own game,” Politico reports.
“With an election approaching next year and a new far-right rival emerging, the Italian prime minister — whose political origins lie in Italy’s post-fascist right — is putting aside the moderate image she has built over her four years in office and hardening her tone on migration and security.”
Why Is Iran Acting Like It Is Holding All the Cards?
Wall Street Journal: “Trump often looks at negotiations in the frame of a power dynamic: Who has the cards? Who has the leverage?”
“The U.S. and Israeli militaries have pounded Iran hard for more than five months, destroying much of its military and killing numerous top leaders. Iran is using the Strait of Hormuz as its final point of leverage.”
“This is somehow proving effective, because there isn’t an easy way to replace this waterway in terms of global trade in the Middle East. Just a few missiles and drones can create a lot of havoc in that waterway. And Iran knows the U.S. has been reticent to send in ground troops to clear out the Strait of Hormuz (not to mention the continuing questions about how many missiles the U.S. military has available).”
Trump Has a Jimmy Carter-Style Iran Problem
Stephen Collinson: “President Donald Trump is staring down two stark liabilities that threaten to damage his Republican Party in the midterms and to ruin his second term-legacy.”
“Somehow he’s maneuvered himself into a more vulnerable spot regarding Iran than any president since Jimmy Carter. As in the 1979-80 hostage crisis, the Islamic Republic is exerting political pressure that it can dial up on the U.S. leader ahead of a national election. A week ago, Trump’s team predicted a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was imminent. But Tehran, now dictating terms to the U.S. global superpower, has imposed tough new conditions.”
“At the same time, Trump faces a separate but related problem at home. The war’s impact on energy prices is further souring voter perceptions of the economy. He’s entered the doom loop in which presidents and officials scan data for silver linings but voters see only indifference to their plights. Twists like Friday’s bad jobs report are untimely for the GOP with November fast approaching.”
NPR: Haunted by Hoover, Trump searches for an endgame in Iran.
Trump Is Still Searching for a Way Out of Iran
“President Donald Trump is struggling to find a way out of the conflict with Iran, as voters lose patience with the war and weapons stockpiles dwindle,” Semafor reports.
“The path forward remains unclear, even as Trump has privately weighed dropping his long-held requirement for a nuclear deal.”
Bloomberg: Trump hints U.S. will let economic pressure on Iran do the work.
Trump’s Foreign Licensing Income Surged
“President Donald Trump’s foreign real-estate licensing business boomed during his first year back in office, generating $59.5 million in 2025 as international developers paid a premium to brand luxury towers, golf courses and coastal resorts with the Trump name,” CNBC reports.
“Foreign licensing revenue, including for the use of the Trump name on properties around the world, rose 71% from 2024. The sum was nearly 10 times higher than in 2023.”
Iran Taps Longtime IRGC Commander to Top Security Post
“Iran is replacing its top national security adviser with a longtime military commander whose appointment could represent a further consolidation of power by the country’s old-guard security establishment,” the New York Times reports.
“Mohsen Rezaei, who led Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, will be the new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.”
Russian Online Retail Giant Bombarded by Ukraine
“Two years ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin blessed an effort to turn Wildberries, a company founded by a young mother on maternity leave, into a global online retail behemoth designed to compete with the likes of Amazon.com,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Now, Wildberries is under assault from Ukrainian drones, as Kyiv seeks to use the company’s size against it and knock another chunk out of Russia’s economy. The latest drone barrage Friday started a fire at one of its warehouses in Yekaterinburg.”
“Based in Moscow, Wildberries sits at the intersection of business and power in Russia. Ukraine’s attacks against it are an example of how firmly the company’s fortunes have become tied to the state.”
Trump Says U.S. Is ‘Low-Keying It’ with Iran
“President Donald Trump signalled on Sunday he is prepared to let economic pressure mount against Iran, apparently backing away from ordering more military strikes even as Tehran issues tough demands,” AFP reports.
Said Trump: “We are low-keying it.”
Israel Rejects Trump Plan for Hamas Disarmament
“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected President Trump’s plan for disarming Hamas, a key plank of the Gaza peace process that also requires Israel to withdraw from the enclave,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The Israeli leader issued a statement in a government meeting Sunday spelling out his rejection of the plan, in an unusual public break with Trump. The move risks angering the president, who hailed what he called ‘a historic agreement’ to disarm Hamas late last month.”
Bloomberg: Netanyahu rejects U.S.-backed proposal for Hamas disarmament.
Trump Thought Opening the Strait Was Imminent
“For weeks, President Trump had been laying the groundwork to declare victory in the Iran war should Tehran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even floating the idea privately to senior aides that he’s willing to walk away without a nuclear deal,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“But that scaled-back objective became more difficult when Iran insisted Saturday on its highest price yet for permitting the free flow of traffic in the waterway, seeking billions of dollars in U.S. payments, the removal of American troops from the region and an end of the U.S. naval blockade, among other things.”
“This rapid chain of events suggests Trump’s options for walking away from the conflict have again narrowed.”
Iran Makes Dramatic New Demands Around Strait
“Iran’s politburo-like body known as the Supreme National Security Council said the Strait of Hormuz will not open until the United States ‘corrects its behavior,’ issuing new demands that could shake up talks on a deal to manage the waterway and traffic on it,” Politico reports.
”Iran’s state broadcaster published the statement by the council’s secretary, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, who is also a commander in the powerful Revolutionary Guard.”
“The United States must never threaten Iran again, the statement said, and must permanently end the war with Iran and its armed allies in the region. The U.S. must lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports and withdraw its military from the area. It also must ‘completely compensate’ Iran for war damage, lift sanctions and ‘unconditionally’ release frozen assets.”
Bloomberg: Wait for Hormuz deal stretches on as Iran says terms must be met.
The U.S. Is Burning Through Weapons in Iran
“President Trump’s war against Iran has depleted U.S. weapons stockpiles to troubling levels, siphoning supplies from Asia and Europe, according to senior officials,” the New York Times reports.
“The rapidly shrinking supply of air-defense missiles and other critical weaponry in Europe and Asia not only leaves the U.S. military less equipped, but could also leave Russia and China feeling emboldened should they contemplate a potential conflict with the United States, experts said.”
Iran Issues List of Demands on the Strait of Hormuz
“A top Iranian national security official delivered a sweeping set of demands on Saturday that he said the United States must meet before the Strait of Hormuz can reopen to maritime traffic, throwing the fate of the critical trade waterway into question,” the New York Times reports.
“Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, issued a statement carried by state media laying out multiple requirements for reopening the strait. He called for the United States to lift its naval blockade and sanctions on Iran, withdraw the U.S. military from around Iran, pay war reparations and release frozen Iranian assets, as well as end attacks on Iran’s allies in the region and threats against the country.”
“The Trump administration is unlikely to agree to those demands.”
Trump Envoys May Visit Kyiv, Moscow Next Week
“Key members of President Donald Trump’s foreign policy team — special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner — may visit Kyiv and Moscow within the next seven to 10 days, Russian state-run Tass news agency reported,” Bloomberg reports.
“The possible trip would mark a renewed push by Trump’s two main intermediaries in the Russia-Ukraine talks after earlier negotiations to end the conflict stalled, and the U.S. pivoted to the situation in the Middle East.”
Iran Says Hormuz Deal ‘Very Close’
“Iran said it’s ‘very close’ to a deal with Oman on a new maritime transit route in the Strait of Hormuz, after expectations grew this week that an announcement may soon be made,” Bloomberg reports.
“Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Saturday that negotiators are closing in on temporary lanes for ships entering and exiting the Persian Gulf. He cautioned that any agreement won’t result in an immediate reopening of the strait, signaling that any respite for energy supplies may be limited.”
Associated Press: Iran thinks the U.S. will let it keep the Strait of Hormuz.
Drones Sighted Over German Military Base
“Two drones were sighted flying over a key military base in western Germany late on Thursday, just days after an armed unmanned aircraft was discovered at a major cargo hub in the country’s east,” Bloomberg reports.
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