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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192

November Surprises

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 192: November Surprises

Russia Pounds Kyiv Hours After Agreeing to Peace Talks

October 22, 2026 · 5:16 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Russian attacks on Ukraine’s capital with ballistic missiles and drones overnight into Thursday killed one person and wounded 22, Ukrainian authorities said. The strikes in Kyiv came hours after the Kremlin agreed to restart U.S.-brokered talks aimed at ending the war,” MS NOW reports.

Foreign Affairs

Peter Thiel Breaks with Trump Over Iran War

October 22, 2026 · 12:05 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Billionaire technology investor Peter Thiel said he’s skeptical of the U.S. war with Iran and does not believe the United States should have launched it, putting the major Republican donor at odds with President Donald Trump over one of the administration’s defining foreign policy decisions,” Politico reports.

Said Thiel: “I’m skeptical of the war, I think we should not have done it. There were a lot of mistakes that were made.”

Foreign Affairs, White House

Iran’s Fleet of Shadow Tankers Has Run Out of Oil

October 21, 2026 · 11:32 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“For most of the war, Iran had an invaluable cushion: dozens of oil tankers holding millions of barrels of crude sitting safely in waters in Asia. Tehran steadily sold the oil to China, bringing in billions of much-needed cash,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Now, that floating storage is gone. By mid-October, the reserves were fully depleted, according to analysts at Kpler, as a U.S. naval blockade prevented Iran from replacing the crude it normally sells to Chinese refineries.”

“The drop in oil revenue is a further blow to Iran’s struggling economy, already facing runaway inflation and widespread shortages.”

Energy, Foreign Affairs

Trump Denies Ordering Starlink Slowdown in Ukraine

October 21, 2026 · 7:28 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump on Wednesday insisted that he had nothing to do with a slowdown of SpaceX’s Starlink in Ukraine, and does not know if Elon Musk was responsible for speed-capping the critical satellite service,” CNBC reports.

Said Trump: “I wasn’t involved.”

Bloomberg: How Musk’s Starlink and U.S. spy satellites support Ukraine’s defense.

Foreign Affairs, White House

Pentagon Builds Spy Program for Economic Warfare

October 21, 2026 · 7:10 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The Pentagon is looking to build a more robust deep-cover spying program to conduct economic warfare against China and other U.S. competitors,” the Washington Post reports. 

“This new next-generation spying program — in which U.S. operatives would go undercover as businesspeople or other private-sector personnel, without any overt U.S. government affiliation — is intended to be a covert prong of the Pentagon’s larger economic warfare campaign.”

Foreign Affairs, National Security

U.S. Troops and Diplomats Evacuating Middle East Posts

October 21, 2026 · 5:46 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The U.S. military has quietly been scaling back its troop presence at bases across the Middle East in recent days, and the State Department is ordering a further reduction in staff at multiple diplomatic posts in the region,” NBC News reports.

“The reduction of American forces and diplomatic personnel is similar to drawdowns at bases and embassies that the Pentagon and State Department initiated around the start of the war with Iran in February, the sources said. They said the moves are in response to ongoing threats in the region, including from Iran.”

Mediaite: Trump to order families home from Gulf embassies amid war worries.

Foreign Affairs, National Security

In Trump’s Diplomacy, Insults Are a One-Way Street

October 21, 2026 · 2:45 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The rules of the road when it comes to President Trump’s relations with foreign leaders are clear: He may trash you. But woe unto you if you whack back,” the New York Times reports.

“No one knows that better than President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, who has been through this particular diplomatic wringer more than once. But he got a pointed reminder during a closed-door meeting in Oslo this week with Mr. Trump’s negotiators.”

“Steve Witkoff, the president’s special envoy, and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, reproached Mr. Zelensky on Tuesday for his sharp comments responding to Mr. Trump’s sharp comments about him, telling the Ukrainian leader that the way he had conducted himself had infuriated the president.”

Bloomberg: Zelensky’s feud with Trump endangers his plan to defend Ukraine.

Foreign Affairs, White House

Trump Claims the U.S. Now Owns Greenland

October 21, 2026 · 1:18 pm ET · Leave a Comment

President Trump claimed in the Oval Office that NATO was “nice enough to give us Greenland. We got Greenland.”

“‘Oh, he’s not going to get it,’” Trump added, mocking his critics. “We got it; we got Greenland.”

Foreign Affairs

The Secret Terms of Trump’s Venezuelan Oil Deal

October 21, 2026 · 12:43 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“In late August, President Donald Trump announced what he called the ‘biggest oil deal in world history.’ Since then, the full text of the accord — which grants the U.S. sweeping access to Venezuela’s oil reserves — has been one of the most sought-after secrets in Washington, D.C,” ProPublica reports.

“ProPublica has reviewed a copy of the 18-page strategic partnership agreement signed for the United States by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The document reveals carefully constructed terms that favor U.S. interests at every turn and cements the power of a small group of people handpicked by the Trump administration to govern and profit from the deal. The role of the Venezuelan government and the potential benefits to its people are largely absent from the text.”

Energy, Foreign Affairs, White House

Why Trump Is Furious at Ukraine

October 21, 2026 · 11:18 am ET · Leave a Comment

The Atlantic: “Trump’s war in Iran has appeared to throttle Republicans’ chances in the midterms; the unending conflict, and the resulting surge in oil and gas prices, has eroded the GOP’s poll numbers and fueled Democrats’ hopes of taking both chambers of Congress.”

“Stymied in his efforts to bring that war to a close, Trump recently shifted his focus to resolving the Ukraine conflict, in part to bring fuel prices down. But the way he’s chosen to try to do that has provided his fellow Republicans with a nasty October surprise. In a first for a U.S. president, Trump has sided with a traditional adversary, Russia, over a democracy that is not only fighting for its existence but also acting as a bulwark against a wider war. Trump’s diesel deal with Putin will have a negligible impact on American energy prices, but it’s a financial lifeline for Moscow.”

“Trump has demanded an energy cease-fire—he even announced one earlier this month that had no basis in reality—yet has focused his ire entirely on Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries. He blames those strikes for the rise in energy prices while ignoring the real culprit, Iran’s ability to defy the United States and close the Strait of Hormuz. He’s convinced himself, three people close to him have told us, that Ukraine’s attacks on the refineries are, in part, meant to undermine Republicans’ chances next month—and, by extension, Trump.”

Foreign Affairs, White House

Democratic Candidate Detained by Israeli Authorities

October 21, 2026 · 9:05 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Brad Lander, an ally of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani who is a Democratic candidate for the ​U.S. Congress, was among 90 volunteers detained by Israeli forces in the occupied West Bank ‌on Wednesday,” Reuters reports.

2026 Campaign, Foreign Affairs

Trump Envoy Calls Putin a ‘Humanitarian’

October 21, 2026 · 8:17 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Praising President Vladimir Putin as a ‘humanitarian,’ the Trump administration envoy Steve Witkoff on Wednesday thanked the Russian leader in St. Petersburg for releasing an American man held for over four years on what the State Department called fabricated charges,” the New York Times reports.

Foreign Affairs, White House

Macron Accuses Foreign Leaders of Exploiting Riots

October 21, 2026 · 7:13 am ET · Leave a Comment

“French President Emmanuel Macron said recent riots are being used abroad for political purposes, accusing foreign leaders of disliking France,” Bloomberg reports.

Said Macron: “There is no visible foreign interference in the events that took place, but there has been foreign manipulation of information in the aftermath.”

“Without naming them, Macron suggested that President Donald Trump, whose party is struggling ahead of mid-terms elections, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is facing a general election in the coming days, are campaigning at France’s expense.”

Foreign Affairs

Russia Releases American Stephen Hubbard From Prison

October 21, 2026 · 5:46 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Russia on Wednesday released an American man who was held for four years on what the State Department called fabricated charges that he was a Ukrainian mercenary,” the New York Times reports.

”The release came after President Trump made a direct appeal to President Vladimir V. Putin to let the 74-year-old teacher, Stephen James Hubbard, return to the United States.”

Foreign Affairs, White House

Trump Says He Asked Putin to Release Jailed American

October 20, 2026 · 5:24 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“President Trump said on Tuesday that he had asked President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to release Stephen James Hubbard, a Michigan teacher who was seized from his home in Ukraine months after Russia invaded that country in February 2022,” the New York Times reports.

“The United States has maintained that the charges against Mr. Hubbard are fabricated. Accused of being a mercenary, he was sentenced to more than six years in a penal colony.”

Foreign Affairs, White House

Elon Musk Ordered Ukraine Starlink Slowdown

October 20, 2026 · 4:34 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Elon Musk ordered the slowdown of a military-grade version of Starlink relied on by Ukraine, a decision that sparked panic in Kyiv and confusion inside the Trump administration,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Both Musk and President Trump have expressed anger at Ukraine for attacking Russian diesel refineries in recent weeks, which the president blames for high energy prices. Last week, Musk capped the speeds at which Ukrainian hardware could stay connected to the satellite-based network, rendering some offensive drones and interceptor drones virtually useless.”

“Musk and Trump discussed the Starlink decision in a call soon after the slowdown became public, while the president was campaigning last week.”

Foreign Affairs, White House

Don Jr. Privately Breaks with His Father

October 20, 2026 · 4:10 pm ET · Leave a Comment

The Atlantic: “Trump Jr. has repeatedly voiced his opposition to the ongoing Iran war in private conversations… The president’s son opposed the war from its outset and made his opposition known to his father. He has long been skeptical of foreign intervention and believed the U.S. should not enter another Middle East war.”

Said a person close to the president’s son: “Don has kept his views on the subject private, as he would never publicly break with his dad on an issue like this, but I can’t imagine anyone who knows Don would be surprised by his personal views on the subject.”

Foreign Affairs, White House

Mark Carney’s Focus Turns Back to Global Stage

October 20, 2026 · 3:27 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Prime Minister Mark Carney hailed the results of the Alberta referendum as a ‘great day for Canada,’ declaring that the province has now chosen unity over the prospect of separation,” Bloomberg reports.

“The decisive result — which saw the ‘remain’ side win roughly 75% of support — allows Carney to put a pressing domestic issue to rest and refocus on the international stage, where major events loom in the coming weeks.”

Foreign Affairs, Foreign Elections

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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