Political Wire

Price of Ken Paxton Rescue Mission Has GOP Panicking

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“Republicans know they have to spend big to save Ken Paxton. They’re increasingly worried MAGA Inc. won’t throw down in time,” Politico reports.

”In private conversations over recent weeks, senior Hill Republicans and GOP officials have nudged President Donald Trump’s team to start spending more on the Texas Senate race before it’s too late.”

“Those fears escalated after audio leaked of Paxton privately trashing Trump’s midterm convention, with some worrying it could impact whether MAGA Inc. continues spending after a current wave of GOP ad bookings run out Oct. 12.”

Trump Says Republicans ‘Will Shove It’ Up Democrats’ Ass

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“President Donald Trump said he doesn’t care what the polls and the ‘fake news’ are showing: he is confident the Republicans are going to shock the world — and the Democrats, in particular — and perform much better than expected in the 2026 midterm elections,” Mediaite reports.

Said Trump: “They’re in for a big surprise. It’s very simple: You gotta get out and vote. You gotta get out. You gotta vote for these guys. If you do that, we’re gonna win and we’re gonna win big.”

He added: “And we’re gonna shove it up their ass.”

Byron Donalds Walks a Tightrope of Trump Loyalty

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“Rep. Byron Donalds had a problem,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“President Trump had learned that the campaign of the man he’d endorsed to become Florida’s next governor had scrubbed prominent mentions of him from Donalds’s website. To calm Trump down, aides showed him a tweet where Donalds minimized the change and appeared beaming alongside the president inside the Oval Office, according to people familiar with the events. That satisfied Trump, who went on to warn that Donalds risked losing if he dropped him.”

“The incident last month shows the conundrum facing Republicans who owe their political careers to Trump. A worsening environment for the GOP is tightening midterm races across the country and prompting a number of Republicans to distance themselves from the president.”

Quote of the Day

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“If the Democrats win, you will have an economic depression, much like 1929. If the Republicans win you will each have $5,000 in your pocket.”

— President Trump, quoted by the Wall Street Journal, once again promising to pay voters to vote Republican in the midterm elections.

Trump Urges Republicans to Vote by Mail

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“President Trump, who has long staged a rhetorical and legal assault against voting by mail even as he used the method himself to cast his ballots, released a video on Saturday urging Republicans to vote early and by mail in the midterm election,” the New York Times reports.

Said Trump: “Vote early. Vote by mail. Or vote in person on Election Day.”

“It was the latest contortion from Mr. Trump on mail balloting. He has for years promoted unfounded claims that mail voting is rife with fraud, while working to restrict the practice for Americans, an effort that has been stymied by lawmakers and the courts. As recently as July, he said ‘mail-in ballots are inherently corrupt.'”

Ken Paxton’s Wife Urges Texans to Vote for Him

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“Angela Paxton wants to clear the air,” the New York Times reports.

“Mrs. Paxton, the estranged wife of Ken Paxton, a conservative firebrand locked in a fierce battle for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas, is urging voters in a new ad to back the entire Republican ticket when they go to the polls next month.”

“While Mrs. Paxton doesn’t mention her husband — whom she is divorcing, alleging adultery — by name in the ad, she addresses ‘the elephant in the room’ by telling voters they should look past their qualms with any single candidate and think about the future of the Republican Party.”

Mediaite: Republicans sound alarm on Ken Paxton’s “slow-moving car crash” of a campaign.

Democrats Gain On Most Important Issues

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“Voters are deeply dissatisfied with President Donald Trump and his Republican Party heading into the Nov. 3 midterm elections, according to an Associated Press-NORC poll, and Democrats have built a clear advantage on pressing issues such as the cost of living and healthcare over just a few months.”

“But the survey also points to a bigger problem for both parties: Few registered voters think either party is able to solve important problems or help Americans like them.”

Democrats Are Underfunding Key Races

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Politico: “Major Democratic contributors and small-dollar givers are flooding Senate hopefuls with cash, but in some of the most politically crucial states they could lose winnable gubernatorial races because they’re being so dramatically outspent by Republican nominees and their allied groups.”

“In former and future presidential battlegrounds Florida, Texas, Ohio, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada, the gubernatorial advertising gap is yawning. For the remainder of the campaign, Republicans are on track to outspend Democrats on television about 6-to-1 in Florida, more than 3-to-1 in Texas, 2.5-to-1 in Georgia, more than 2-to-1 in Wisconsin, and only slightly more narrowly in Ohio and Nevada.”

Many House Republicans Believe They Won’t Win House

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“Four weeks to Election Day, a growing number of House Republicans privately fear their chances of holding onto the majority are vanishing and have begun focusing on how to limit the size of a potential Democratic wave,” CNN reports.

“Inside the House GOP, Republicans have watched with alarm as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have sunk in their own internal polling — including on traditionally red turf — over the last two weeks.”

“Now, the House GOP is entering triage mode. Republicans are discussing pulling money from once-competitive races they see as too difficult to win, including Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa, Rep. Tom Keane in New Jersey, and an open seat in Nebraska.”

James Talarico Leads in Texas Senate Race

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A new New York Times/Siena poll in Texas finds James Talarico (D) leading Ken Paxton (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 51% to 45%.

Texas Senate Race
James Talarico (D) 51%
 
Ken Paxton (R) 45%
 
New York Times/Siena poll · likely voters
Texas Governor’s Race
Gina Hinojosa (D) 49%
 
Greg Abbott (R) 46%
 
New York Times/Siena poll · likely voters

Mary Peltola Leads in Alaska Senate Race

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A new New York Times/Siena poll in Alaska finds Mary Peltola (D) leading Dan Sullivan (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 43%.

Alaska Senate Race
Mary Peltola (D) 50%
 
Dan Sullivan (R) 43%
 
New York Times/Siena poll · likely voters
Alaska Governor’s Race
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 52%
 
Bernadette Wilson (R) 48%
 
New York Times/Siena poll · likely voters

Sherrod Brown Holds Small Lead in Ohio Senate Race

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A new New York Times/Siena poll in Ohio finds Sherrod Brown (D) leading Jon Husted (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 46%.

Ohio Senate Race
Sherrod Brown (D) 49%
 
Jon Husted (R) 46%
 
New York Times/Siena poll · likely voters
Ohio Governor’s Race
Amy Acton (D) 49%
 
Vivek Ramaswamy (R) 45%
 
New York Times/Siena poll · likely voters

Ashley Hinson Just Ahead in Iowa Senate Race

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A new New York Times/Siena poll in Iowa finds Ashley Hinson (R) leading Josh Turek (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 47%.

Iowa Senate Race
Ashley Hinson (R) 48%
 
Josh Turek (D) 47%
 
New York Times/Siena poll · likely voters
Iowa Governor’s Race
Rob Sand (D) 52%
 
Zach Lahn (R) 41%
 
New York Times/Siena poll · likely voters

Democrats May Have Recipe for Flipping Red Senate Seats

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Nate Cohn: “On paper, the Democrats’ path to winning the Senate in November is daunting. They need to flip at least two seats that President Trump won by 11 percentage points or more — no party has pulled off a similar feat since 2008.”

“But in polls over the last month, the party’s path to the Senate hasn’t seemed daunting at all. Since Labor Day, Democrats have been tied or ahead in nearly every nonpartisan poll of not just two but five states that voted for Mr. Trump by between 11 and 16 points: Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas.”

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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