A new Marist poll in Maine finds Troy Jackson (D) leading Susan Collins (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 47%.
Maine Senate Race
Troy Jackson (D) 49%
Susan Collins (R) 47%
The GOP’s Big Small Donor Problem
Politico: “Outside of Donald Trump, Republicans still haven’t figured out how to raise money online.”
“Roughly 1.5 million donors this cycle gave through WinRed, the major GOP online fundraising platform, compared to 2.2 million in 2022. So how big is the gap? Texas Democrat James Talarico alone had about the same number of donors on Democratic platform ActBlue as all Republican candidates and committees combined.”
Why Trump’s Rally Tour Is a Gift to Democrats
Dan Pfeiffer: “Donald Trump also has the lowest approval rating of any president entering a midterm election since Harry Truman.”
“Most presidents this unpopular would try to help their party by staying at the White House and out of the news. That’s what Joe Biden, Barack Obama, and George W. Bush did when their numbers were down and their party was in trouble. It’s the obvious move. The less voters focus on the President with whom they are unhappy, the greater the chance that other members of their party can survive.”
“Not Donald Trump.”
“The deeply unpopular president who started the unpopular war that raised everyone’s costs in an election where prices are the number one issue has decided to be omnipresent on the campaign trail. In October, Trump has held 21 rallies and has at least half a dozen more scheduled before the election.”
Kathy Hochul Already Eyeing a Third Term
Jonathan Martin: “Hochul knows her history and, should she win next week, she told me she intends to seek a full third term as governor in 2030. If she prevails, she’ll match the likes of Rockefeller, Dewey and Cuomo. Mario, that is.”
Trump Returns to South Texas
“President Donald Trump is returning to Texas for the fourth time in recent weeks, with rallies in Lubbock and Corpus Christi on Tuesday — and a major question hanging over the final stretch of the midterm campaign: Can Republicans hold on to Hispanic voters?” NewsNation reports.
“Trump’s visits come one week before Election Day, as Republicans fight to keep a decadeslong winning streak in the Lone Star State.”
Massive Groups of Volunteers Are Ready to Face Down ICE
Abdul El-Sayed Leads in Michigan Senate Race
A new The Detroit News/WDIV-TV (Channel 4)/Glengariff Group poll in Michigan finds Abdul El-Sayed (D) leading Mike Rogers (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 51% to 45%.
Michigan Senate Race
Abdul El-Sayed (D) 51%
Mike Rogers (R) 45%
Incomes Lag in 42 of 46 Swing Districts
Washington Post: “Incomes have not kept up with rising costs in 42 of the 46 most competitive midterm election districts. But the problem is marginally worse in Republican-held districts, according to Post analysis of family budget data between 2019 and 2024.”
”As voters decide which party can best rescue their chance at the American Dream, political experts say prolonged economic hardship is the defining feature influencing voters in the midterms.”
Trump Allies Flood Zone with Election Doubt
“President Donald Trump and his allies have spent the final weeks before the midterms showering his supporters with a relentless stream of doubt about the legitimacy of the election, priming them to question results if Republicans lose,” the Washington Post reports.
Election Officials Fear Federal Interference in Voting
“State and local elections officials regularly plan for floods, fires and computer glitches,” the New York Times reports.
“This year, they are teaching poll workers what to do if immigration enforcement officers show up. They are drilling them about the statute that bars federal agents from voting places. They are running through the limits of what federal monitors may and may not do on Election Day.”
“Much of the preparations for Nov. 3 can be distilled into one overarching concern — that the Trump administration will somehow attempt to meddle with the voting process or the results. The tricky part, officials said, is predicting what shape that interference might take while also recognizing that it might not materialize at all.”
Democrats Hold Clear Lead Nationally
A new NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 52% to 44%.
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrats 52%
Republicans 44%
The same poll finds President Trump’s approval at 40%, while 59% disapprove.
Trump Approval
Approve 40%
Disapprove 59%
Hegseth Gives Troops a Day Off to Vote
“Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has been giving troops a day off to vote, but those votes may not help Republicans as much as Hegseth would like,” MS NOW reports.
“The secretary is urging service members to cast their ballots as he ramps up efforts to turn out the vote ahead of November’s midterm elections.”
“But historically low voter turnout among active-duty military members and frustrations over the war with Iran may put a damper on Hegseth’s hopes for how the military will vote —- if its members vote at all.”
Why Top Democrats Are Heading to Red States
“Johnny Garcia asked Hakeem Jeffries to join him here in deep-red Texas to help flip a GOP seat. After the midterms, the House Democratic leader may need Garcia even more,” Semafor reports.
“Jeffries can win back the majority without the former deputy sheriff, who’s trying to prevail next week in a district that President Donald Trump won by 10 points in 2024. But a Garcia win could prove essential to Jeffries for two other reasons: to prove that Trump’s mid-decade congressional redistricting has backfired, and to create a Democratic majority that’s easier to govern.”
“Cracks in the GOP redistricting maneuver are showing in other red states, too — a top party super PAC has pulled out of Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz’s reelection race in Florida after making his district redder. Yet Democrats’ hopes of neutralizing the Trump power play are particularly strong in Texas, where Republicans initially dreamed of gaining five House seats.”
For members: How Republicans Made Safe Seats Competitive
Talarico Struggles to Energize Black Voters
Washington Sun: “Texas state Rep. James Talarico is attempting to gain ground with Texas’ 2.7 million Black voters, who are strongholds in cities like Houston and Dallas, as he seeks to become the first Democrat elected statewide in Texas in more than three decades.”
“But some strategists and local lawmakers think Talarico is falling short — criticism that has plagued him since the primary — and that an enthusiasm gap from Black voters could make the difference on whether he is able to beat state Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican candidate, next week.”
Super PACs Still Awash in ‘Dark Money’
“Super PACs closely aligned with Democratic and Republican congressional leaders have disclosed record donations from affiliated ‘dark money‘ groups, obscuring the source of hundreds of millions of dollars influencing House and Senate midterm elections next week,” the Washington Sun reports.
“This torrent of secret money exploits a provision in federal election law that allows super PACs, which must publicly disclose the identities of their contributors, to accept donations from certain nonprofits, trade groups, unions and shell corporations, which themselves are generally exempt.”
One Week Out
Punchbowl News: “Most Republicans and Democrats agree on one thing (at least privately) — Democrats will take control of the House. The size of that majority remains uncertain, however.”
”But the Senate is up for grabs. Democrats see multiple paths to victory, although Republicans are pouring staggering amounts of money into close races in red states. Republicans are counting on that final blitz of TV ads to blunt the Democratic tide.”
Republicans Face a Small Donor Problem
“Republicans are confronting a grim reality about their fundraising: Trump is by far their biggest online rainmaker, and others in the party aren’t even close,” Politico reports.
“The GOP’s cash advantage over Democrats this cycle has been thanks to a small group of megadonors like Elon Musk. But when it comes to the grassroots donor base, there’s a stark contrast between the parties.”
“The number of federal donors giving through WinRed, the major GOP online fundraising platform, is down about 30% versus 2022. Meanwhile, the number of donors has increased by about one-third on ActBlue, the dominant Democratic platform, from 4.9 million to roughly 6.6 million, according to analyses of reports from both groups submitted to the FEC.”
Trump Planned to Sharply Restrict Mail-In Voting
“Earlier this month, the Supreme Court blocked an executive order from President Donald Trump restricting voting by mail in ways that could have thrown the upcoming midterms into chaos. But the White House originally had far more disruptive plans,” ProPublica reports.
”According to several people knowledgeable about the discussions, the administration initially floated an idea that would have virtually shut down mail voting: requiring all ballots to be delivered exclusively through certified mail. The proposal — which would have required voters to be home and sign for delivery of their ballots — was ultimately abandoned, after vehement Postal Service objections that it would have been impossible to execute.”
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Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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