A new UMass Lowell/YouGov poll in Texas finds James Talarico (D) and Ken Paxton (R) tied in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 45%, with Ted Brown (L) at 2%.
The same poll in Texas finds Greg Abbott (R) leading Gina Hinojosa (D) in the governor’s race, 48% to 44%, with Pat Dixon (L) at 1%.
“A midterm election exceeding the spending of a presidential election is a rare occurrence, but campaign spending is reaching astronomical levels ahead of the 2026 midterms,” NewsNation reports.
“According to AdImpact projections, about $11.6 billion is expected to be spent on the 2026 midterms, roughly $400 million more than the $11.2 billion spent during the 2024 general election.”
“Should the GOP sweep the midterms come November, President Donald Trump promised every American adult a $5,000 check in their mailbox,” Fortune reports.
“It’s not the first time the noted dealmaker offered such a deal, but what is fresh is new details of who will actually get the check, which seemingly change with every passing day as the election draws closer.”
“As a result, voters are taking Trump’s word with a grain of salt. An Economist and YouGov poll from September found that only 21% of registered voters think Trump would ‘definitely or probably would’ issue that $5,000 dividend if Republicans retain control of Congress, while more than half (57%) said he probably or definitely would not. Even among Republicans, less than half (45%) think Trump will follow through.”
“Republicans are in a dogfight to defend the Latino gains that had them dreaming of a lasting political realignment just two years ago,” Axios reports.
“Nowhere is that reversal of fortune more visible than in South Texas, where President Trump ran up historic numbers in 2024 — and Republicans redrew the map in 2025, assuming those Latino gains would last.”
“Trump won 55% of Texas Latino voters in 2024 exit polls, carried 14 of the 18 counties within 20 miles of the border and won all four Rio Grande Valley counties.”
“Polling shows Trump’s disapproval ratings have skyrocketed among Latinos in Texas since 2024.”
“Presidential races traditionally start in Iowa, where the state’s caucuses often produce bustling, energetic—and sometimes confusing—outcomes. It’s the beautiful backdrop of early political euphoria,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Novembers in Iowa don’t traditionally bring as much drama.”
“Republicans in recent years have tightened their hold on the state, controlling the governor’s mansion since 2011 and holding both U.S. Senate seats since 2015.”
“That could be about to change.”
Bloomberg: “In the country’s biggest swing state, two national figures are going in opposite directions — and potentially pulling their parties up (or down) with them.”
“President Donald Trump is on a steep decline in Pennsylvania, according to new polling, while Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro is climbing ahead of a nearly-certain White House run in 2028.”
“Their trajectories could ripple far beyond their own political fortunes. Pennsylvania hosts four critical House races this year — enough to give Democrats a majority — and Trump’s struggles (combined with Shapiro’s surging reelection run) are making it even harder for Republicans to hang on.”
“Democrats’ eyes may be bigger than their wallets,” Politico reports.
“Democrats across a slate of deep-red states are clamoring for more cash to fight for Senate seats that suddenly seem within reach, with polling showing them competitive across a swath of normally impregnable territory from Kansas to Florida and South Carolina to Mississippi prompting a sudden bump in late-stage spending from outside groups. The party’s main campaign groups have already begun spending in Texas, another state they once downplayed that’s come seriously into play.”
“But those same groups say they don’t have enough cash to protect the core battleground and also make significant investments beyond it — setting up Democrats for a series of difficult choices in the closing weeks of the midterms.”
“The biggest donors in the 2026 midterm election are breaking decisively toward Republican candidates and causes,” CNBC reports.
“Fourteen of the 20 largest donors and donor groups this election cycle have exclusively or nearly exclusively backed GOP candidates or aligned groups… Together, the 20 account for $1.2 billion, or about an eighth of the roughly $9.8 billion raised this election cycle.”
A new PIX11 News/Emerson College Polling poll in New York finds Kathy Hochul (D) leading Bruce Blakeman (R) in the governor’s race, 52% to 40%.
“This has opened the floodgates. The knives are now fully out for these two.”
— A person close to the White House, quoted by Politico, on revelations that Chris LaCivita and James Blair traveled to the Balkans to advise a Russia-friendly regime’s reelection effort while Republicans’ midterm prospects dwindle back home.
“Republicans have spent months griping privately to Fox News about coverage they argue is helping Abdul El-Sayed, Michigan’s Democratic nominee for Senate, moderate his image. The frustration boiled into public view Tuesday when President Trump lashed out at his favorite network,” Axios reports.
“Republicans worry that Fox is undercutting their efforts to brand the charismatic El-Sayed as a liberal who’s far outside the mainstream.”
“Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson pushed back on the suggestion by Democrat Josh Turek at the Iowa Senate debate on Wednesday that her husband is a ‘shadow lobbyist,'” the Washington Sun reports.
“Hinson, who is running for Senate against Turek, and her husband, Matt Arenholz, are deeply connected to the insurance industry. Past reporting by The Washington Sun revealed that Arenholz held a position at a top industry lobbying group during Hinson’s time as a member of the House of Representatives.”
A new CNN poll in Ohio finds Sherrod Brown (D) leading Jon Husted (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 43%.
The same poll in Ohio finds Amy Acton (D) leading Vivek Ramaswamy (R) in the governor’s race, 50% to 42%.
A new CNN poll in Iowa finds Ashley Hinson (R) leading Josh Turek (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 43%.
The same poll in Iowa finds Rob Sand (D) leading Zach Lahn (R) in the governor’s race, 51% to 42%.
“Republicans thought they had one of their best shots at flipping a Democratic Senate seat in purple New Hampshire this year after longtime Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announced her retirement. It’s looking less that way every week,” the Washington Sun reports.
“Party leaders did have reason to be hopeful, even in a difficult national environment for Republicans.”
“Republicans have a massive campaign cash advantage going into the final stretch before Election Day, but a new poll shows they aren’t yet capturing voters’ attention,” Politico reports.
“More than 70% of poll respondents who had seen ads said they’d either seen more spots in support of Democrats or an equal amount between the parties over the past week — including ads on television, social media, or any other platform. Only 24% said they’d seen more ads for Republicans.”
“The numbers are striking considering Republican-aligned groups had triple the amount of cash on hand compared to their Democratic rivals going into the final months of the campaign.”
“With just under a month to go until Election Day, financial decisions made by both parties appear to suggest the question being asked is not if Democrats take control of the House, but how large the majority may be,” NPR reports.
“Currently, Republicans hold a narrow 218-214 seat advantage. In February 2025, the Cook Political Report’s initial ratings for the midterms found a small slice of 39 races listed as competitive, with 18 classified as ‘toss-ups.'”
“That topline number has shifted, with Cook currently listing 43 districts as competitive, including 22 toss-ups. But beyond that, under the hood, Democratic and Republican groups are marshalling hundreds of millions of dollars to influence an electoral landscape that is much larger.”
“Across the country, Democrats running to flip some of the nation’s most high-profile House seats this cycle are offering a similar pitch: Vote for me to clean up corruption in Washington,” MS NOW reports.
“While the specifics may vary, candidate after candidate is offering their own plans to rein in malfeasance. Most hit on similar themes: ban stock trading by members of Congress, bar corporate dollars in politics, impose term limits — even on members of the Supreme Court — and restrict members of Congress from becoming lobbyists.”
“It’s part of a larger trend this cycle, with Democrats making corruption a central tenet of their ads and campaign messaging, often incorporating it into their broader argument about addressing the cost of living.”
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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