A new New York Times/Siena poll in Alaska finds Mary Peltola (D) leading Dan Sullivan (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 43%.
The same poll in Alaska finds Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) leading Bernadette Wilson (R) in the governor’s race, 52% to 48%.
A new New York Times/Siena poll in Ohio finds Sherrod Brown (D) leading Jon Husted (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 46%.
The same poll in Ohio finds Amy Acton (D) leading Vivek Ramaswamy (R) in the governor’s race, 49% to 45%.
A new New York Times/Siena poll in Iowa finds Ashley Hinson (R) leading Josh Turek (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 47%.
The same poll in Iowa finds Rob Sand (D) leading Zach Lahn (R) in the governor’s race, 52% to 41%.
Nate Cohn: “On paper, the Democrats’ path to winning the Senate in November is daunting. They need to flip at least two seats that President Trump won by 11 percentage points or more — no party has pulled off a similar feat since 2008.”
“But in polls over the last month, the party’s path to the Senate hasn’t seemed daunting at all. Since Labor Day, Democrats have been tied or ahead in nearly every nonpartisan poll of not just two but five states that voted for Mr. Trump by between 11 and 16 points: Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas.”
“Senate Republicans are suddenly rushing to save a Senate seat in Kansas,” Politico reports.
”On Friday, the Senate Leadership Fund, Senate Republicans’ top super PAC, reserved over $8 million in ads starting this weekend to prop up GOP Sen. Roger Marshall, according to tracking firm AdImpact.”
“The spending in a state where Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in 94 years comes amid a deteriorating national political environment for the GOP. The impact of spiking diesel and fertilizer prices driven by the war with Iran, coupled with President Donald Trump’s trade wars, have been acutely felt in the heartland.”
“One key to victory in the midterm elections comes down to this question: How can each party win support from people who don’t like them?” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“More voters say they dislike both the Democratic and Republican parties than in other recent elections, the result of economic anxiety and deep dissatisfaction with politicians and government. Some 21% of the voter pool holds an unfavorable view of both parties, a recent Wall Street Journal poll found, significantly above the 13% in the 2022 midterms and about 12% in the past two presidential elections.”
“State Rep. Jennifer Balkcom, the Republican nominee for North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, struggled to answer a series of questions during a recent interview, repeatedly pausing and admitting she was ‘not sure’ where she stood on key issues,” Mediaite reports.
“Eleven years ago, Donald Trump arrived in Mobile in his Boeing 757, strode onto a football field to ‘Sweet Home Alabama’ and was greeted by a sight that revealed the scale of his fledging political movement: Tens of thousands of people had braved sweltering temperatures and snarled traffic to see him,” the Washington Post reports.
“An estimated 30,000 people had come to witness Trump on the ascent, proving that his brash, freewheeling political style could win over supporters even in the Bible Belt. The event marked the first time he had drawn such a large crowd, and it was a harbinger of the boisterous rallies that would come to define his more than decade in politics.”
“On Friday, he returns with his presidential approval ratings at historic lows and Republicans struggling to translate his power to mobilize their base into broader electoral support. With just a month to go before the midterms, Trump is returning to places where his movement remains strongest even as Republicans struggle in competitive districts across the country.”
ABC News: Trump heads to deep-red Alabama to “thank” loyal voters as GOP eyes a key House seat.
“Hispanic voters helped to power President Trump’s victory in 2024. Republicans thought they were watching a major, and permanent, realignment, one that would lock in their power in places like Texas and Florida for a generation,” the New York Times reports.
“Polling suggests, though, that these voters have quickly soured on Republicans. That could be one of the biggest stories of the midterm elections.”
A new CBS News/YouGov poll in Maine finds Troy Jackson (D) and Susan Collins (R) tied in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 50%.
The same poll in Maine finds Hannah Pingree (D) leading Bobby Charles (R) in the governor’s race, 56% to 44%.
“For America’s two major political parties, Nov. 3 is shaping up to be an Election Day of mutual distrust. The proof is in the deluge of litigation already filed in courthouses around the country,” the New York Times reports.
“The Trump administration is heading into the midterms fixated on the unfounded claim that voter registration by noncitizens is a widespread problem. The Democrats, noting that President Trump tried to overturn his 2020 election loss — and that he recently encouraged his followers to ‘cheat like hell’ in the midterms — are bracing for what they say will be an onslaught of Republican tactics, from the intimidation of voters to the potential seizure of ballots.”
“The specific contours of these anxieties are evident in the scores of election-related lawsuits filed by the two parties and their allies. They are concerned with matters as granular as the proper way to seal a ballot envelope in North Carolina, and as sweeping as the role of the federal government in an election system that is, per the Constitution, administered by the states.”
“The Democrats’ main Senate super PAC is turning an explosive ProPublica investigation into Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) into a 30-second, $3.4 million attack campaign in one of the closest Senate races of the midterms,” Axios reports.
A new Quantus Insights poll in Alaska finds Dan Sullivan (R) and Mary Peltola (D) tied in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 46%.
A new InsiderAdvantage poll in South Carolina finds Darline Graham (R) leading Annie Andrews (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 45%, with Mark Hackett (C) at 3% and Kasie Whitener (L) at 2%.
Sarah Fitzpatrick: “Earlier this year, FBI Director Kash Patel vowed before God, Fox Nation, and Donald Trump that he would punish the ‘deep state‘ for its manifold transgressions, especially the (actually nonexistent) conspiracy to steal the 2020 election.”
Said Patel: “I’ve been with the president nearly since day one on this. I can announce on your show that we’ve got all the information we need. We’re working with our prosecutors at the Department of Justice under Attorney General Todd Blanche, and we are going to be making arrests, and it’s coming, and I promise you, it’s coming soon.”
“That was five months ago. Patel has not yet delivered on his promise. But in interviews with more than 40 current and former administration officials, FBI employees, and members of Congress and their staffers, as well as others close to the White House, I’ve learned that it is not for lack of trying.”
“The Democratic fundraising organization ActBlue raised $833 million for the party’s candidates and causes in the third quarter, a record amount that will help narrow the financial advantage the GOP enjoys with big donors in what is projected to be the most expensive election in U.S. history,” Bloomberg reports.
“The total — which includes money raised for federal, state and local candidates as well as Democratic and progressive political and advocacy groups — surpassed the previous midterm record of $586 million in the second quarter, the organization said Friday.”
“Senate Republicans’ top super PAC is making a tactical change, pausing its ad campaign in North Carolina’s Senate race and launching a new one in Kansas,” Semafor reports.
“Senate Leadership Fund is plowing seven figures into Kansas to help incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall against Democrat Adam Hamilton. After spending more than $30 million in North Carolina’s Senate race, the super PAC is putting further spending there on hold.”
A new Global Strategy Group (D) poll in Kansas finds Adam Hamilton (D) leading Roger Marshall (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 43%, with David Graham (L) at 5%.
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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