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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 193

The Magnificent Seven

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 193: The Magnificent Seven

Crowley Leads Tiffany in Wisconsin Governor’s Race

October 29, 2026 · 11:26 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new League of American Workers poll in Wisconsin finds David Crowley (D) leading Tom Tiffany (R) in the governor’s race, 48% to 45%.

Wisconsin Governor’s Race
David Crowley (D) 48%
 
Tom Tiffany (R) 45%
 
League of American Workers poll · likely voters

2026 Campaign

Abdul El-Sayed Faces Heat From Former Primary Rival

October 29, 2026 · 10:55 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Representative Haley Stevens of Michigan, who lost to Dr. Abdul El-Sayed in a bitter Democratic primary for Senate in August, has grown increasingly critical of him as the election draws near, injecting unusual intraparty tensions into the final days of a pivotal midterm contest,” the New York Times reports.

“While Ms. Stevens reiterated Wednesday night that she plans to vote for Dr. El-Sayed, she did so through seemingly gritted teeth in a televised interview just hours after her fiancé said that he would be voting for former Representative Mike Rogers, Dr. El-Sayed’s Republican rival.”

2026 Campaign

Florida Is a Political Battleground Again

October 29, 2026 · 10:25 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Florida, the onetime swing state Republicans spent a generation transforming into a conservative stronghold, is looking like a political battleground once again,” Bloomberg reports.

“After writing off the state as too red to win for nearly a decade, some of the Democratic Party’s biggest names are making a last-minute push they hope will pay off with major upsets on Nov. 3.”

2026 Campaign

Democrats Hold Big Lead on Named Ballot

October 29, 2026 · 10:16 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new Tufts University Public Opinion Lab poll finds Democrats leading Republicans nationwide in congressional races, 52% to 40%.

The survey had an interesting twist: “Unlike most polls which use a generic house ballot question that only provides the party labels, our House vote question piped in candidate names (with their party labels) to more accurately reflect how people actually vote in these races.”

Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrats 52%
 
Republicans 40%
 
Tufts University Public Opinion Lab poll · likely voters · ±4.6%

2026 Campaign

Trump’s Speeches Take On Darker Tone

October 29, 2026 · 9:55 am ET · Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump has traveled 22 of 28 days in October, appearing in a total of 19 states. His remarks have averaged 1½ hours. At 80 years old, this frenzied pace is testing his stamina and his ability to deliver a compelling rationale for preserving the Republicans’ slim majority in Congress,” NBC News reports.

“But between messages about the economy — during which he has touted numbers without substantiation — viewers are getting profanity, physical objectification and ethnic stereotyping.”

2026 Campaign, White House

Transgender Ads Again a Dominant Republican Theme

October 29, 2026 · 9:49 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Republicans have spent an estimated $183 million on television ads focused on transgender-related attacks against Democrats in the final phase of this year’s midterm elections, betting that struggling GOP candidates can leverage the divisive cultural issue to overcome voters’ concerns about President Donald Trump’s leadership and the state of the economy,” the Associated Press reports.

2026 Campaign, Political Advertising

Trump’s Anti-Muslim Attacks Dominate Michigan’s Election

October 29, 2026 · 9:37 am ET · Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump and Republicans are ratcheting up their efforts to brand Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a Michigan-born Muslim whose parents emigrated from Egypt, as an ‘extremist’ in the final days of the state’s critical Senate race,” Politico reports.

“It has sparked concern among some El-Sayed supporters, who fear the deluge of attacks could break through to some undecided voters. It has infuriated some of the president’s one-time Muslim and Arab allies in the state with the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the country, who view the comments as Islamophobic and racist. And it has caused some of them to lose hope in Republicans.”

2026 Campaign

White House Actions Spur Worry Among FBI Agents

October 29, 2026 · 9:14 am ET · Leave a Comment

“As Election Day nears, recent events have prompted some FBI agents to express concern, that they may be ordered to seize voting machines or take other actions that disrupt election results,” MS NOW reports.

2026 Campaign, Election Administration, White House

A Kansas Megachurch Pastor Might Decide the Senate

October 29, 2026 · 9:03 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Adam Hamilton’s campaign tests whether Democrats can find religion,” the New Yorker reports.

2026 Campaign

In Final Push, Trump Offers Rosy and Off-Script Message

October 29, 2026 · 8:55 am ET · Leave a Comment

“In the final days before an election that will decide control of Congress, President Trump’s closing argument — buoyant, digressive and characteristically off-script — is at times running headlong into the economic anxieties of the voters Republicans most need,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“With a war in Iran driving up gas prices for Americans, Trump is boasting to supporters that the conflict is making the country rich. At a rally in Georgia, he said his aides had urged him not to brag about the billions of dollars the United States was earning on oil from the war, since Americans are ‘paying a little higher’ in costs because of it. But he did it anyway.”

Said Trump: “I said, I don’t give a damn. We are making a freaking fortune. Our country is getting stronger and stronger all the time. And those pump prices are going to come down.”

2026 Campaign, White House

Bonus Quote of the Day

October 29, 2026 · 8:27 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The ground you have is the ground you have, and you have to fight on it.”

— A Trump strategist, quoted by The Atlantic.

2026 Campaign

Pappas Solidly Ahead in New Hampshire Senate Race

October 29, 2026 · 8:25 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new UMass Lowell/YouGov poll in New Hampshire finds Chris Pappas (D) leading John E. Sununu (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 41%, with Edmond LaPlante (CONS) at 4%.

New Hampshire Senate Race
Chris Pappas (D) 48%
 
John E. Sununu (R) 41%
 
UMass Lowell/YouGov poll · likely voters · ±5%

2026 Campaign

James Talarico’s Final Sprint

October 29, 2026 · 8:01 am ET · Leave a Comment

New Yorker: “Talarico has an uncanny ability to say the same things over and over again. His memorized speeches sound as if he is reading from a teleprompter, without false starts or stutters—he repeats himself only when trying to speak over the crowd’s applause.”

“Now, in the final stretch, his closing message attempts to cover everything, from the etymology of the word ‘Texas’ to the mythos of Beyoncé and Selena.”

2026 Campaign

How Much Are the Parties Spending On Ads?

October 29, 2026 · 7:57 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Many things look grim for Republicans in the final stretch before the midterm elections: President Donald Trump’s approval rating is at all-time low. Polling shows Democrats ahead in key races in red states. High fuel prices are fanning voters’ affordability concerns,” Bloomberg reports.

“Yet the GOP remains competitive in part thanks to one extremely powerful weapon: A massive cash pile that far exceeds Democrats’ fundraising haul.”

“The Republican party and three super PACs tied to Trump or House and Senate leaders have raised $2.1 billion, compared to $1.4 billion for their Democratic counterparts. Allied conservative groups, like Elon Musk’s America PAC, have raked in hundreds of millions more.”

2026 Campaign, Campaign Finance

Talarico Maintains Edge in Texas Senate Race

October 29, 2026 · 7:50 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new Texas Southern University poll in Texas finds James Talarico (D) leading Ken Paxton (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 47%, with Ted Brown (L) at 3%.

Texas Senate Race
James Talarico (D) 49%
 
Ken Paxton (R) 47%
 
Texas Southern University poll · likely voters · ±2.19%

The same poll in Texas finds Greg Abbott (R) leading Gina Hinojosa (D) in the governor’s race, 50% to 47%, with Pat Dixon (L) at 2%.

Texas Governor’s Race
Greg Abbott (R) 50%
 
Gina Hinojosa (D) 47%
 
Texas Southern University poll · likely voters · ±2.19%

2026 Campaign

Mike Johnson Signals Intent to Stay Even if House Is Lost

October 29, 2026 · 7:23 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) recent hints that he intends to remain GOP leader even if Republicans lose the House have rattled the party’s leadership outlook and raised fresh new questions about the GOP’s future heading into the next Congress,” The Hill reports.

“Most House Speakers in recent decades have stepped out of Congress after losing the gavel. And Reps. Steve Scalise (R-LA), the majority leader, and Jim Jordan (R-OH), a conservative icon, are both expected to launch bids to lead House Republicans if Democrats flip the chamber.”

2026 Campaign, House of Representatives

Trump’s Bizarre Closing Message to Voters

October 29, 2026 · 7:03 am ET · Leave a Comment

Jonathan Lemire: “Modern political history offers few examples of closing arguments that appear more out of touch, self-defeating, or downright bizarre than what Donald Trump has offered his fellow Republicans ahead of next week’s midterm elections. In 1980, when Ronald Reagan told voters to consider Jimmy Carter’s presidency and ask themselves, ‘Are you better off than you were four years ago?,’ it helped turn a tight race into a Reagan landslide.”

“But many stretch-run messages prove deeply ineffective and are quickly forgotten. Ahead of the 1998 midterms, Republicans went all in on investigations that led to the impeachment of President Bill Clinton only to be rebuked by voters. President Obama’s insistence in 2010 that the country was coming out of the financial crisis led to his party enduring a ‘shellacking.’ And during the 2018 midterms, Trump and his fellow Republicans tried to stoke fears about an alleged caravan of migrants headed toward the United States, only to have skeptical voters hand the House of Representatives to Democrats.”

“This time around, Trump’s primary rationale for why voters should support the GOP, as best I can tell, is that the affordability crisis is a ‘hoax,’ Bill Maher is a ‘loser,’ and Senator Jon Husted of Ohio has a nice physique. That easy-to-mock message has been accompanied by a staggering number of missteps.”

2026 Campaign, White House

House Battleground Expands to 70 Districts

October 29, 2026 · 6:49 am ET · Leave a Comment

“In the final week of the 2026 midterm election, ad spending data suggests the core battle is less about stopping a Democratic wave in the House, and more about figuring out how high it crests,” NPR reports.

“An NPR analysis finds the final competitive House landscape is expansive, including 70 districts where both parties are investing at least six figures per district into their final days of messaging.”

2026 Campaign

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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