“Eleven years ago, Donald Trump arrived in Mobile in his Boeing 757, strode onto a football field to ‘Sweet Home Alabama’ and was greeted by a sight that revealed the scale of his fledging political movement: Tens of thousands of people had braved sweltering temperatures and snarled traffic to see him,” the Washington Post reports.

“An estimated 30,000 people had come to witness Trump on the ascent, proving that his brash, freewheeling political style could win over supporters even in the Bible Belt. The event marked the first time he had drawn such a large crowd, and it was a harbinger of the boisterous rallies that would come to define his more than decade in politics.”

“On Friday, he returns with his presidential approval ratings at historic lows and Republicans struggling to translate his power to mobilize their base into broader electoral support. With just a month to go before the midterms, Trump is returning to places where his movement remains strongest even as Republicans struggle in competitive districts across the country.”

ABC News: Trump heads to deep-red Alabama to “thank” loyal voters as GOP eyes a key House seat.

“Hispanic voters helped to power President Trump’s victory in 2024. Republicans thought they were watching a major, and permanent, realignment, one that would lock in their power in places like Texas and Florida for a generation,” the New York Times reports.

“Polling suggests, though, that these voters have quickly soured on Republicans. That could be one of the biggest stories of the midterm elections.”

A new CBS News/YouGov poll in Maine finds Troy Jackson (D) and Susan Collins (R) tied in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 50%.

The same poll in Maine finds Hannah Pingree (D) leading Bobby Charles (R) in the governor’s race, 56% to 44%.

A new Quantus Insights poll in Alaska finds Dan Sullivan (R) and Mary Peltola (D) tied in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 46%.

A new InsiderAdvantage poll in South Carolina finds Darline Graham (R) leading Annie Andrews (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 45%, with Mark Hackett (C) at 3% and Kasie Whitener (L) at 2%.

A new Global Strategy Group (D) poll in Kansas finds Adam Hamilton (D) leading Roger Marshall (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 43%, with David Graham (L) at 5%.

Paul Krugman: “So where are we as we head into the final month of the midterm campaign? Election models based on political polls are almost surreally favorable to the Democrats, who Elliott Morris gives a 99 percent chance of winning the House. But it’s not just the polls. Even though the U.S. economy looks OK by some measures, the overall economic environment looks really bad for Trump and his party.”

“Oh, and there’s the small matter of that disastrous war.”

“Yet the Trump administration insists that this troubled environment is a Golden Age. This isn’t just bad politics. It’s an indication that Trump is living in a bubble of fantasy and sycophancy, in which nobody dares suggest — even as a matter of cynical political strategy — acknowledging that things are less than perfect.”