A new NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 52% to 44%.
The same poll finds President Trump’s approval at 40%, while 59% disapprove.
“Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has been giving troops a day off to vote, but those votes may not help Republicans as much as Hegseth would like,” MS NOW reports.
“The secretary is urging service members to cast their ballots as he ramps up efforts to turn out the vote ahead of November’s midterm elections.”
“But historically low voter turnout among active-duty military members and frustrations over the war with Iran may put a damper on Hegseth’s hopes for how the military will vote —- if its members vote at all.”
“Johnny Garcia asked Hakeem Jeffries to join him here in deep-red Texas to help flip a GOP seat. After the midterms, the House Democratic leader may need Garcia even more,” Semafor reports.
“Jeffries can win back the majority without the former deputy sheriff, who’s trying to prevail next week in a district that President Donald Trump won by 10 points in 2024. But a Garcia win could prove essential to Jeffries for two other reasons: to prove that Trump’s mid-decade congressional redistricting has backfired, and to create a Democratic majority that’s easier to govern.”
“Cracks in the GOP redistricting maneuver are showing in other red states, too — a top party super PAC has pulled out of Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz’s reelection race in Florida after making his district redder. Yet Democrats’ hopes of neutralizing the Trump power play are particularly strong in Texas, where Republicans initially dreamed of gaining five House seats.”
For members: How Republicans Made Safe Seats Competitive
Washington Sun: “Texas state Rep. James Talarico is attempting to gain ground with Texas’ 2.7 million Black voters, who are strongholds in cities like Houston and Dallas, as he seeks to become the first Democrat elected statewide in Texas in more than three decades.”
“But some strategists and local lawmakers think Talarico is falling short — criticism that has plagued him since the primary — and that an enthusiasm gap from Black voters could make the difference on whether he is able to beat state Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican candidate, next week.”
“Super PACs closely aligned with Democratic and Republican congressional leaders have disclosed record donations from affiliated ‘dark money‘ groups, obscuring the source of hundreds of millions of dollars influencing House and Senate midterm elections next week,” the Washington Sun reports.
“This torrent of secret money exploits a provision in federal election law that allows super PACs, which must publicly disclose the identities of their contributors, to accept donations from certain nonprofits, trade groups, unions and shell corporations, which themselves are generally exempt.”
Punchbowl News: “Most Republicans and Democrats agree on one thing (at least privately) — Democrats will take control of the House. The size of that majority remains uncertain, however.”
”But the Senate is up for grabs. Democrats see multiple paths to victory, although Republicans are pouring staggering amounts of money into close races in red states. Republicans are counting on that final blitz of TV ads to blunt the Democratic tide.”
“Republicans are confronting a grim reality about their fundraising: Trump is by far their biggest online rainmaker, and others in the party aren’t even close,” Politico reports.
“The GOP’s cash advantage over Democrats this cycle has been thanks to a small group of megadonors like Elon Musk. But when it comes to the grassroots donor base, there’s a stark contrast between the parties.”
“The number of federal donors giving through WinRed, the major GOP online fundraising platform, is down about 30% versus 2022. Meanwhile, the number of donors has increased by about one-third on ActBlue, the dominant Democratic platform, from 4.9 million to roughly 6.6 million, according to analyses of reports from both groups submitted to the FEC.”
“Earlier this month, the Supreme Court blocked an executive order from President Donald Trump restricting voting by mail in ways that could have thrown the upcoming midterms into chaos. But the White House originally had far more disruptive plans,” ProPublica reports.
”According to several people knowledgeable about the discussions, the administration initially floated an idea that would have virtually shut down mail voting: requiring all ballots to be delivered exclusively through certified mail. The proposal — which would have required voters to be home and sign for delivery of their ballots — was ultimately abandoned, after vehement Postal Service objections that it would have been impossible to execute.”
A new Targoz Market Research poll in South Carolina finds Darline Graham (R) leading Annie Andrews (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 46%, with Kasie Whitener (L) at 2%.
Punchbowl News: “Democrats are seizing on a new attack on GOP candidates for House and Senate seats as colder weather sweeps into the Northeast, knocking their opponents over the high cost of home heating oil.”
“High gas and diesel prices have been dominating Democrats’ messaging in races around the country. But President Donald Trump’s war with Iran is now creating more political fallout for Republicans as the winter months approach. The cost of home heating oil spiked dramatically this year, hitting an average of $6.19 per gallon as of Oct. 19, according to the Energy Information Administration. It was $3.60 per gallon last year, meaning it’s increased by more than 70%.”
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 53% to 44%.
Rolling Stone: “All around America, voters are fed up with the short-sighted, destructive policies of Donald Trump’s second administration. But rather than addressing those concerns, the president today decided to try a new tactic in shifting the balance of America’s fragile democracy: offering a boat load of cash to anyone who could catch a fraud.”
“In a Truth Social post on Monday afternoon, Trump said that ‘anybody reporting Voter Fraud in the past Elections, or the upcoming 2026 Midterm Election, will be paid $1,000,000 upon the arrest and conviction of those that created the Fraud!'”
“America’s political class is hurtling toward an election that some fear could turn into yet another public opinion polling flop,” Politico reports.
“Enter the prediction markets.”
“Wall Street’s buzziest startups — Kalshi and Polymarket chiefly among them — have long held themselves up as paragons of the forecasting business, arguing that voters will be more truthful with money on the line. Now, the midterm elections are about to test whether their predictive chops hold up when on display.”
Washington Post: “As Trump’s approval rating plummets, Silicon Valley companies that ingratiated themselves with Trump’s Washington are bracing for the possibility of a Democratic Congress — and with it congressional investigations targeting their dealings with the president and his administration.”
“Democrats are preparing to investigate some defense technology firms, as well as manufacturing and mining companies that serve the military supply chain, according to conversations with nearly a dozen congressional staffers, political lobbyists, lawyers, investors and executives.”
“The firms make a tantalizing target for Democrats because of their close ties to the Trump administration and mounting public anger over unregulated AI, autonomous weapons and data centers.”
“Americans’ concern with what they view as government corruption is defining midterm races across the country, as voters from both parties consistently rank the issue second only to the economy and high prices,” the Washington Post reports.
“Corruption has particularly animated the crucial Senate battleground of Texas, where Republicans are scrambling to prevent the first Senate Democratic victory since 1988 as state Rep. James Talarico (D) pounds Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) with tens of millions of dollars in advertising calling him corrupt.”
New York Times: Ken Paxton’s state-funded jet-setting draws campaign scrutiny.
“President Trump will campaign with three football stars in Texas on Tuesday, leaning into America’s favorite sport as Republicans scramble to turn out voters in the final week before the midterms, Axios has learned,” Axios reports.
“Trump is trying to mobilize the low-propensity voters who helped return him to the White House in 2024 — but who may be less inclined to vote when he isn’t on the ballot.”
A new Quantus Insights poll in North Carolina finds Roy Cooper (D) leading Michael Whatley (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 51% to 43%.
“President Trump faces an uncomfortable political dilemma ahead of the impending midterm elections: how to stand by the tariffs at the heart of his economic agenda when Republican voters are less convinced of their benefits,” Axios reports.
“Since returning to the White House, Trump has moved more aggressively than any modern president to remake the global trading system, with sweeping tariffs at the center of that effort.”
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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