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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 193

The Magnificent Seven

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 193: The Magnificent Seven

Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens Haven’t Spoken

October 28, 2026 · 1:02 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“With under a week to go in what many polls are showing as a still tight Senate race in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed hasn’t called his former primary opponent Rep. Haley Stevens in months — and there are no plans for that to change before Election Day,” CNN reports.

“Stevens narrowly lost to El-Sayed in August after polls showed him far ahead. She appeared with him at unity events in the days immediately after, including a hug at a state party unity breakfast, but conversations quickly dried up after.”

2026 Campaign

Another Bonus Quote of the Day

October 28, 2026 · 12:55 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“He’ll still be president for two more years. But the minute the election, the votes, are counted … the 2028 election campaign begins, and if Trump has a bad night, as polls show, then he’s a super-lame duck.”

— Nate Silver, quoted by MS NOW.

2026 Campaign, White House

Rick Jackson Pours More Than $200 Million Into His Race

October 28, 2026 · 12:45 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Republican billionaire Rick Jackson has poured more than $200 million of his personal fortune into Georgia’s race for governor, a staggering sum that has shattered state records but hasn’t given him a clear lead over Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms,” the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.

2026 Campaign, Campaign Finance, State House

Ramaswamy’s Attack Ad Backfires Amid New Claims

October 28, 2026 · 12:41 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Ohio gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton’s (D) long-lost stepsister “has come forward saying she believes Acton’s account of her turbulent childhood, saying the candidate’s claims about sexual abuse by her stepfather and the family living in a tent are true,” the Daily Mail reports.

Said the woman, who asked that her name be withheld: “Yes, he raped her, and it was more than once.”

2026 Campaign, State House

Kamala Harris Warns Dems Against Impeaching Trump

October 28, 2026 · 12:01 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Former Vice President Kamala Harris has cautioned Democrats against impeaching President Trump for a third time if they regain control of the House of Representatives in next week’s midterm elections,” the New York Post reports.

Said Harris: “I think that going in the direction of impeachment is not a good idea, just to be honest with you, just because we have limited resources.”

She added: “I think the energy and the resources need to be put into accountability, need to be put into investigations. And that’s where the time should be spent.”

2026 Campaign

Inside Democrats’ Secret Effort to Stack Alaska’s Ballot

October 28, 2026 · 10:52 am ET · Leave a Comment

“In the summer of 2025, a staffer for Mary Peltola, the Alaska Democrat who was eyeing a run for Senate, received unusual instructions from top campaign aides: Find as many people named Dan Sullivan in Alaska as you can,” the New York Times reports.

“This was no random request. Dan S. Sullivan is the name of the state’s Republican senator. And if the Peltola campaign or its allies could track down and persuade another Dan Sullivan to run for Senate, the confusion could cost the senator crucial votes on the state’s unusual, four-person ballot.”

“The plan worked. This spring, a retired teacher from a tiny fishing village along the Alaska Panhandle, reachable only by air and sea, announced his candidacy for Senate. His name was Dan J. Sullivan.”

“The Peltola campaign has repeatedly denied any involvement in his candidacy. But The Times has found, based on interviews and text messages, along with documents prepared for a potential lawsuit against the campaign, that not only did Ms. Peltola’s team work with people trying to recruit Mr. Sullivan to run for Senate, but the effort was much broader. The group worked to coax other would-be spoilers into the race, to dilute the incumbent’s support and help catapult the Democrat to victory.”

2026 Campaign, Dirty Tricks

Which Indicator Do You Trust the Most?

October 28, 2026 · 10:20 am ET · Leave a Comment

Nearly every indicator points to Democrats having a very good midterm election next week.

No matter what you look at — the polls, special election results, primary turnout, early voting numbers, campaign spending decisions, presidential approval — they’re all pointing in the same direction.

But which one do you put the most faith in?

Whip Count

Which pre-election indicator do you think is most predictive?

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2026 Campaign

Congress at Record Low Approval

October 28, 2026 · 10:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

Gallup: “Ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, record-low shares of U.S. registered voters say they would reelect their own representative or most members of Congress. For the first time in a final pre-midterm reading, less than half of voters (43%) think their own representative deserves another term, while 15% say the same for most members of Congress.”

2026 Campaign, Polling

Democrats Hold Leads in Ohio

October 28, 2026 · 9:55 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll in Ohio finds Sherrod Brown (D) leading Jon Husted (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 44%.

Ohio Senate Race
Sherrod Brown (D) 47%
 
Jon Husted (R) 44%
 
USA Today/Suffolk University poll · likely voters · ±4.4%

The same poll in Ohio finds Amy Acton (D) leading Vivek Ramaswamy (R) in the governor’s race, 48% to 44%.

Ohio Governor’s Race
Amy Acton (D) 48%
 
Vivek Ramaswamy (R) 44%
 
USA Today/Suffolk University poll · likely voters · ±4.4%

2026 Campaign

Donalds Barely Ahead in Florida Governor’s Race

October 28, 2026 · 9:54 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new Florida Politics/St. Pete Polls poll in Florida finds Byron Donalds (R) leading David Jolly (D) in the governor’s race, 48% to 46%.

Florida Governor’s Race
Byron Donalds (R) 48%
 
David Jolly (D) 46%
 
Florida Politics/St. Pete Polls poll · likely voters · ±3.2%

2026 Campaign

Ramaswamy Was Warned Over His ‘Rapist Protector’ Ad

October 28, 2026 · 9:51 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Before Vivek Ramaswamy’s now-infamous attack ad on his Democratic opponent leaked last week, multiple Republicans on and close to his campaign warned the Trump-endorsed Ohio GOP gubernatorial nominee that running this ad was a terrible idea – explaining it would very likely backfire on him, make Democrat Amy Acton seem more sympathetic to crucial median voters, and make him look cruel and desperate,” Zeteo reports.

Said a Trump adviser: “It’s siding with the rapist protector mom. This was never a good idea.”

2026 Campaign, Political Advertising

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

October 28, 2026 · 9:50 am ET · Leave a Comment

“And just, for all of you, I know that Husted gets a ton of attention, but I think Bernie’s kind of eye candy too.”

— Sen. John Thune (R-SD), quoted by Mediaite, at a rally with Sens. Jon Husted (R-OH) and Bernie Moreno (R-OH).

2026 Campaign

GOP Defense Hawks Break with Trump

October 28, 2026 · 9:20 am ET · Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump may have finally alienated the faction key to delivering his colossal defense budget: Republican hawks,” Politico reports.

“The president will need almost unanimous support from Senate and House Republicans to enact his $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget after the midterm elections, especially if the GOP is about to lose one or both chambers of Congress.”

“But Trump’s recent receptiveness to Russia — including allowing the sale of Russian diesel fuel, waiving sanctions on Moscow and the still-unexplained slowdown of Ukraine’s satellite defenses — has alarmed the very people pushing for more military spending. And they warn that his agenda won’t survive if the embrace of Moscow continues.”

2026 Campaign, National Security, White House

How Ticket-Splitting Could Impact the Midterms

October 28, 2026 · 8:35 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The fate of the Senate could come down to a fading practice: ticket splitting,” Bloomberg reports.

“At least eight critical Senate races are running alongside governor’s contests this year, adding local political winds to the national atmosphere.”

“In several of those states, the candidates leading in polling for governor and Senate represent different parties. It suggests voters may buck a decadeslong decline in ticket-splitting.”

2026 Campaign

Member feature

Trump Heads Into Midterms with Truly Dismal Approval

October 28, 2026 · 8:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

Talking PointsDonald Trump is heading into the midterm elections with one of the lowest approval ratings of any president in modern American history.

As Doug Sosnik’s presentation shows, Trump’s 33% approval rating is tied with Harry Truman’s in 1946 for the lowest recorded in a midterm election year over the past eight decades.

Read the rest of this column

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2026 Campaign, Members, Talking Points

Majority Now Oppose California Billionaire’s Tax

October 28, 2026 · 7:58 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new Public Policy Institute Poll in California finds 52% of voters would oppose the proposed one-time “billionaire’s tax” in next week’s referendum.

2026 Campaign

The Real Election Tech Vulnerabilities in 2026

October 28, 2026 · 7:47 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Some of the biggest vulnerabilities in election security are lying in plain sight,” Axios reports.

“There’s no credible evidence that voting-system vulnerabilities have been exploited to change election results. But researchers have found isolated flaws that threaten ballot secrecy, accurate vote recording and independent verification of results.”

2026 Campaign, Election Administration

Kathy Hochul Appears Headed for Solid Win

October 28, 2026 · 7:40 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new Marist poll in New York finds Kathy Hochul (D) leading Bruce Blakeman (R) in the governor’s race, 53% to 42%.

New York Governor’s Race
Kathy Hochul (D) 53%
 
Bruce Blakeman (R) 42%
 
Marist poll · likely voters · ±3.9%

2026 Campaign

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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