A new Public Policy Institute of California poll finds Xavier Becerra (D) leading Steve Hilton (R) in the governor’s race, 61% to 37%.
Governor’s Race
Xavier Becerra (D) 61%
Steve Hilton (R) 37%
Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 193
The Magnificent Seven
Trial Balloon · Ep. 193: The Magnificent Seven
Ocasio-Cortez Defies GOP Boogeyman Expectations
“Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez is defying Republicans’ midterm boogeyman expectations, according to none other than Republicans themselves,” Politico reports.
“The progressive standard bearer’s final midterm blitz through Nevada, Maine, Michigan and Florida showcase appeal that’s ‘better than a lot of politicians,’ said a senior Republican operative working on midterm races… ‘Better than most Republicans.'”
“The Republican authority on star power agrees.”
Said President Trump: “Somehow I don’t mind AOC that much. I don’t know why she doesn’t bug me too much.”
Another Poll Shows Tight Race in South Carolina
A new South Carolina Policy Council poll in South Carolina finds Darline Graham (R) leading Annie Andrews (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 46%.
South Carolina Senate Race
Darline Graham (R) 47%
Annie Andrews (D) 46%
Trump’s Election-Denying Strategy Is Back
Stephen Collinson: “When President Donald Trump signals he might not accept the result of an election, he’s worth taking seriously.”
“By now, in his fifth national election as Republican Party leader, Trump has an established MO. He spends months whipping up doubts about the voting system and the integrity of election officials while suggesting Democrats may cheat.”
“Then, he weaponizes the vortex of mistrust he created and implies before votes are counted that the election may not be fair.”
Trump Admits Mar-a-Lago Isn’t for Price-Conscious
“President Donald Trump joked that the $5,000 payments he’s promised U.S. adults would buy little more than ‘a hamburger and maybe a small dessert’ at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida, a week before midterm elections dominated by voters’ concerns over affordability,” CNBC reports.
Said Trump: “I’m not even sure you could buy that. No, don’t go there. That’s not a good place if you’re price-conscious.”
Democrats Heading for a Wave Election in the House
Aaron Blake: “House Democrats appear to be flirting with one of the biggest popular vote wins in decades.”
“The CNN Poll of Polls shows them leading the so-called ‘generic ballot’ by 9 points, thanks in large part to President Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity. The last time either party won the House popular vote by at least 10 points in a midterm was in 1986.”
Dead Heat in South Carolina Senate Race
A new The New York Times/Siena University poll in South Carolina finds Darline Graham (R) and Annie Andrews (D) tied in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 48%.
South Carolina Senate Race
Darline Graham (R) 48%
Annie Andrews (D) 48%
The same poll in Minnesota finds Peggy Flanagan (D) leading Michele Tafoya (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 54% to 40%.
Minnesota Senate Race
Peggy Flanagan (D) 54%
Michele Tafoya (R) 40%
The same poll in Florida finds Ashley Moody (R) leading Angie Nixon (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 44%.
Florida Senate Race
Ashley Moody (R) 50%
Angie Nixon (D) 44%
Senate Control Could Hang in Limbo for Weeks
“Senate leaders could be guessing who will control the chamber well into November, thanks to a slew of tight races and state-specific voting rules,” Axios reports.
“A GOP majority would ease the pressure on Senate Majority Leader John Thune to move quickly on nominations, while a Democratic majority would give Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer more leverage in the lame-duck session.”
”If the chamber splits 50/50, leaders will have to start negotiating their power-sharing agreement.”
Quote of the Day
“I have had tough races always, but this is the first time where there have been nonstop lies about me and my record—character assassination.”
— Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), quoted by the Wall Street Journal.
RFK Jr. Makes Bigoted Remarks About Arabs
“Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. falsely claimed on Monday that Arabs did not win major global awards and ‘don’t produce literature,’ remarks that came as President Trump and his allies step up anti-Muslim messaging in the final days of the midterms,” the New York Times reports.
Fox’s Trump Fatigue
Status: “According to Nielsen ratings obtained by Status in advance of their release, October 2026 will be Fox News’ lowest-rated month since December 2023, with the network averaging 1.1 million total day viewers. Among viewers in the advertiser-coveted 25-54 demographic, the picture is even worse. Fox News will post its lowest-rated month in that category in 25 years, averaging just 98,000 viewers in the 25-54 demo.”
”Those figures represent a steep 27% drop compared to last October in total viewers, and a 32% plunge in the 25-54 demo…”
”The Fox News ratings indicate that conservatives are tuning out ahead of the high-stakes elections. While television ratings are not a scientific measure of voter enthusiasm, the eye-popping decline in Fox News’ audience should be a flashing warning sign for Trump and his Republican allies as voters prepare to head to the polls. In comparison to Fox News, the progressive MS NOW is averaging 588,000 total day viewers, a 16% spike compared to last year, suggesting enthusiasm has shifted to the Democratic side of the aisle.”
Jon Stewart Makes Final Midterms Plea
“Election Day draws near, and Jon Stewart has one final plea for his ‘Weekly Show’ podcast listeners: ‘Please, please for the love of God, get out there and vote,'” The Wrap reports.
“But that plea came with some conditions on Tuesday.”
“‘I’d like to frame it as a, ‘However you’ll vote,’ but I don’t mean that,’ he said. ‘I mean it as, please send a message to this reckless s–tshow of an administration that enough is enough, that we have had it, that it is time for someone to step up and provide, I believe the framers referred to them as checks and balances, on this utterly imperious administration.'”
The Style Gulf Splitting the Democratic Party
“For Democrats, the midterms have been a test of which ideological wing of the party has more juice: the progressive left, which notched high-profile wins during the primaries, or the moderate middle,” the New York Times reports.
“But, as the general election draws near, there’s also a stylistic gulf emerging, most notably in the purple and red states that have become major Senate battlegrounds. And it poses another big question for the party.”
“Should a candidate thrill an audience and light the world on fire? Or is being a little bit boring actually a secret weapon?”
“What works in November could shape the way the Democratic Party thinks about 2028.”
The Most Racist Election Cycle in a Generation
Rolling Stone: “In 2010, a splinter group of far-right Republicans known as the Tea Party summoned a red wave of Republican voters in Barack Obama’s first midterm elections, capitalizing on the remnants of the global financial crisis and troop surges in Afghanistan to help the GOP win 63 seats in Congress. The Tea Party wanted to be known as fiscal conservatives, but their darkest power was abject, open fury that the United States had dared to elect a Black man as president.”
“But 2010 was not, somehow, the most racist election in recent memory. It’s the 2026 midterms, thanks to the invective spewed by the man in the White House and the worst dregs of his movement around the country. With a war in Iran, skyrocketing gas prices, rampant inflation, and a burgeoning housing crisis, the GOP has no claim to fiscal conservatism this election cycle. Instead, all they have is race.”
Murkowski Endorses Democrat for Alaska Governor
“Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) has endorsed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins,” KTUU reports.
Graham Leads Andrews in U.S. Senate race for a full term
A new Citadel poll in South Carolina finds Darline Graham (R) leading Annie Andrews (D) in the U.S. Senate race for a full term, 43% to 39%.
South Carolina U.S. Senate race for a full term
Darline Graham (R) 43%
Annie Andrews (D) 39%
Could Iowa Swing Back to Democrats in 2028?
“Before President Donald Trump won Iowa three times in a row, Democrats took the state in six of the seven presidential races between 2012 and 1988,” Semafor reports.
“Next week, Iowa Democrats are competitive in a Senate race, gubernatorial race, and three House races; if they win, Democrats think it might put Iowa back in the mix as a presidential swing state.”
The Next Campaign Begins in 8 Days
I joined Julie Mason this afternoon to discuss the final week of the 2026 midterms — and the opening moves of the 2028 presidential race.
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Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
More about Taegan Goddard →