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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192

November Surprises

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 192: November Surprises

DOJ Seeks to Preemptively Block Alaska Senate Result

October 23, 2026 · 11:24 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The Justice Department has moved to preemptively block certification of the results of Alaska’s Senate race if Republican incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan loses his tight race against Democrat Mary Peltola next month,” the Washington Post reports.

“In a lawsuit filed in federal court Thursday, department officials described the candidacy of a third contender in the race — another Republican named Dan J. Sullivan Jr. — as a bid to mislead supporters of Sen. Sullivan into voting for the wrong candidate.”

Washington Sun: Trump administration lays out path to challenge Alaska’s Senate results.

2026 Campaign, Election Administration

Supreme Court Says Student IDs Can’t Be Used to Vote

October 22, 2026 · 6:48 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“In a win for Republicans, the Supreme Court said Thursday that student IDs cannot be used in New Hampshire for the midterm elections,” NBC News reports.

“The justices granted an emergency request filed by the state, which had the backing of the Republican National Committee.”

New York Times: Supreme Court allows blanket ban on student IDs at polls in New Hampshire.

2026 Campaign, Election Administration, Judiciary

More Democrats Are Voting in Person

October 22, 2026 · 5:46 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Data from this fall’s early balloting and interviews with officials and voters suggests Americans, particularly Democrats, are moving away from mailing ballots and toward in-person voting and drop boxes, following President Donald Trump’s relentless attack on voting by mail,” the Washington Post reports.

“Requests for mail ballots are down compared with the last midterm election in six of eight states analyzed by Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor who is the leading authority on early voting data. In Georgia, he found, requests for mail ballots are down 40 percent, while in-person early voting is ‘through the roof.'”

2026 Campaign, Election Administration

Armies of Lawyers Prepare to Stop Election Interference

October 22, 2026 · 3:26 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Hundreds of U.S. lawyers have agreed to work for free on efforts to monitor next month’s midterm elections in what voting rights groups say is the biggest effort of its kind to prevent meddling at the polls,” the Financial Times reports.

“The attorneys are volunteering for non-profit groups that specialise in election integrity, with work that ranges from answering voters’ questions on election hotlines to preparing to sue the government over any alleged interference, including if immigration enforcement agents are sent to voting sites.”

2026 Campaign, Election Administration

Election Deniers Could Hold Key Posts in 2028

October 22, 2026 · 1:30 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Wired: “A review has identified a slate of GOP attorney general candidates in more than half a dozen states, including key swing states, who have repeatedly expressed their belief that the 2020 election was stolen.”

“If elected, several have said, they are willing to relitigate 2020 once again—and all will potentially play a key role in the 2028 presidential election.”

2026 Campaign, Election Administration

Federal Judge Curbs Hunt for Noncitizen Voters

October 22, 2026 · 11:18 am ET · Leave a Comment

“A federal judge on Wednesday restricted the Department of Homeland Security from election-related investigations in nine states, finding that error-prone government lists could sweep U.S. citizens into the effort,” the Washington Post reports.

Election Administration, Judiciary

Democrats Sue Trump for ‘Intimidating’ Election Officials

October 21, 2026 · 6:31 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Top Democrats and allied organizations filed a lawsuit on Wednesday against President Donald Trump and his administration over their attempts to stymie the midterm elections, including by removing voters from state rolls,” MS NOW reports.

2026 Campaign, Election Administration

New Rules in North Carolina Threaten Thousands of Ballots

October 21, 2026 · 5:52 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“New mail ballot rules in North Carolina may lead to the rejection of thousands of ballots, left-leaning voting rights groups warned this week. The groups urged voters to check the status of their mail ballot or vote in person to make sure their votes count,” the New York Times reports.

“At issue is a requirement that voters seal not only the outer envelope of their mail ballot but also an inner envelope that contains the ballot itself.”

Election Administration

Democrats Prepare for Trump to Claim Foreign Meddling

October 21, 2026 · 5:07 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The top Democrats on the House and Senate intelligence committees say they are operating under the presumption that President Trump and his allies will allege fraud related to this year’s midterms in order to justify election interference,” NPR reports.

Said Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT): “We start with the premise that the president is going to do that. It would be irresponsible not to, speaking as somebody who was in the chamber on January 6, 2021. We’re making the assumption that the president is not going to accept the results of what looks to be a very challenging election for him and his party.”

2026 Campaign, Election Administration

Feds Knock On Doors to Track Down Noncitizen Voters

October 21, 2026 · 1:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Armed and in uniform, federal agents from the Department of Homeland Security have been knocking on doors in several states to ask residents about their immigration status — and to inquire if they have registered to vote or cast votes in past elections,” CBS News reports.

“The operation is part of an effort to root out potential noncitizen voters ahead of the midterms. DHS has alleged that there could be as many as 250,000 citizens illegally registered to vote, although election experts have disputed the accuracy of this figure. Just 156 people have been charged with voting-fraud related offenses since the beginning of the Trump administration.”

2026 Campaign, Election Administration, White House

Most Americans Are Confident the Election Will Be Fair

October 20, 2026 · 7:04 am ET · Leave a Comment

“About 6 in 10 Americans are confident that the midterm elections will be conducted fairly and accurately, rising to over two-thirds of registered voters. But that means nearly 4 in 10 Americans and about 3 in 10 voters are not confident elections will be conducted fairly and accurately,” according to an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll.

2026 Campaign, Election Administration, Polling

Georgia Election Chief Rejects Trump’s Claims

October 19, 2026 · 2:05 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The Republican state official in charge of Georgia’s elections rebutted false claims by President Donald Trump that sought to cast doubt on the integrity of vote-counting in the state with early voting already underway in the midterm elections,” Bloomberg reports.

“Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger told Bloomberg Television that he expects the state’s election results by midnight on Election Day, calling the process ‘free, fair and fast.'”

Said Raffensperger: “We are very confident that at the end of the day you can trust the results.”

2026 Campaign, Election Administration

Trump Appointees Wanted a Voting Machine Hacked

October 19, 2026 · 9:40 am ET · Leave a Comment

“A few months into President Donald Trump’s second term, political appointees at the Department of Homeland Security made an unusual request of its agency focused on cybersecurity: Secretly acquire a voting machine and hack it,” ProPublica reports.

“The appointees wanted the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency to procure the machine, examine it and report back the findings so they could be given to the White House, according to two former administration officials with knowledge of the request.”

“The proposition was shocking to CISA’s career staffers, according to one of the former officials. CISA typically worked to thwart hackers. Moreover, the agency had been directed not to alert the voting machine company if it uncovered flaws, contrary to its standard practices. The request made the CISA employees fear they were being asked to take part in political interference.”

Election Administration, White House

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

October 18, 2026 · 10:27 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“In the past two elections that I oversaw as lieutenant governor, the threats were all external: non-state actors, cyber security threats and other things. But now we also have threats coming from within our own government.”

— Utah Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson (R), quoted by CBS News.

Election Administration

How Claims of Widespread Noncitizen Voting Fall Apart

October 16, 2026 · 10:25 am ET · Leave a Comment

“While President Trump has claimed that noncitizens voted en masse and even tipped the scales in recent elections, research from partisan and nonpartisan groups alike has shown that instances of noncitizen voting are so rare that they have never been significant enough to change the outcome of an election,” the New York Times reports.

“Investigations into noncitizen voting have historically followed a pattern. First, state or federal election officials report that hundreds or thousands of noncitizens may be on their voter lists. After further review, the figures often shrink to dozens. Each inquiry ends with few, if any, prosecutions.”

Election Administration

GOP States Have Made It Harder to Vote

October 16, 2026 · 5:36 am ET · Leave a Comment

CNN: “Republican lawmakers and officials around the country have taken steps at the state and local level to make it harder to vote this November, from enacting stricter registration requirements to adding ID restrictions to dramatically reducing early voting sites, polling places and ballot drop-boxes.”

“These changes, pushed through state Capitols and county boards of election, have not received the same attention as President Donald Trump’s dramatic attempts to curb mail voting and assert control over voting rolls, but they could have just as significant an impact on turnout in key races to control Congress.”

2026 Campaign, Election Administration

Justice Department Sues California Over ‘Noncitizen Voters’

October 15, 2026 · 3:53 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The Department of Justice on Thursday sued the top election officials in California and Los Angeles County, claiming they were planning to count ballots from more than 20,000 alleged noncitizens in next month’s midterm elections,” the Washington Post reports.

2026 Campaign, Election Administration

Glitch Delays 600,000 Voter Registrations in Texas

October 15, 2026 · 8:34 am ET · Leave a Comment

“A computer error caused a backlog of hundreds of thousands of voter registrations in Texas, sending election workers scrambling to process them before early voting starts on Monday,” the New York Times reports.

“The backlog of nearly 600,000 applications stemmed from a glitch in software run by the Texas Department of Public Safety, according to a lawsuit filed last week by voting rights groups. They accused the agency, as well as the secretary of state, who serves as Texas’ chief election officer, of failing to to maintain a reliable online voter registration system.”

Election Administration

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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