“Because of rules backed by New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), concerning third parties, the Working Families Party must garner at least 130,000 votes or 2% of the total vote—whichever is higher—on its party line for the presidential election in November, or it will lose its automatic ballot line in New York,” the New York Times reports.
“A Republican-backed effort to qualify Montana Green Party candidates for the general election has been rejected by the Montana Supreme Court,” the AP reports.
“The Montana Republican Party had bankrolled the $100,000 signature-gathering effort and violated campaign finance laws by not properly reporting the expenditure.”
“The pandemic may have robbed Donald Trump of a growing economy. It may have trapped Joe Biden in his basement. But it may yet do something even worse to the Libertarian and Green party nominees: keep them off the ballot in many of this year’s key states,” Politico reports.
“Several of the elusive ballot lines are in states that in 2016 were either narrowly won or flipped from red-to-blue.”
Echelon Insights looked at U.S. registered voter support in a hypothetical multi-party democracy.
Here’s what it might look like:
- 28% Labor (working class center-left)
- 21% Conservative (traditional-right, pre-Trump)
- 19% Nationalist (basically Trump)
- 12% “Acela Party” (socially liberal, globalist, fiscally centrist)
- 10% Green (basically AOC)
“It’s very freeing to not feel bound to a particular party.”
— Rep. Justin Amash (I-MI), in an interview with Time magazine.
“Lincoln Chafee, the Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat who served as Rhode Island’s governor and as a US senator, is now a member of the Libertarian Party,” the Boston Globe reports.
Said Chafee: “I bought property in Wyoming and registered to vote out there in my fourth party — I’m a Libertarian. It’s what I’ve always been — fiscally conservative and socially liberal.”
Joshua Spivak: “Democrats have long complained — with good reason — about the role of the Green Party in depriving Al Gore of the White House in 2000. Nader received 2.74% of the vote (he did not appear in all states), including 1.63 percent in the critical state of Florida that Gore lost by 537 votes. That 2.74% was a strong showing for a third party, but in 2016, the Libertarian Party topped that total.”
“The Libertarian Party had never before received more than 1.1% of the vote in a presidential election. But with New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson and former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld serving as their ticket, the party rocketed to 3.24% of the vote. In two of the critical states that Trump flipped, Michigan and Wisconsin, Johnson topped 3.6%. In Pennsylvania, the third normally Democratic stronghold that voted GOP, Johnson received 2.4%.”
“It is not clear from the polling, but one of the reasons for Trump’s surprise victory was the cratering in support for Johnson in the waning months of the election. In September, he was polling at 9%, which fell off heavily by Election Day.”
Ballot Access News: “Although the election returns for 2018 are far from complete, it is possible to know now that the minor party and independent vote for the top office in each state this year is only 2.8%. This is the lowest percentage since 1982, when it was only 1.8%. The highest percentage since World War II was 2010, when it was 5.4%.”
New York Times: ‘At the start of this year, barely a quarter of registered voters in California said they were Republicans, down from more than a third in 1997. At the same time, the number of voters in the state who say they have no party preference has more than doubled, to about 25 percent. This strongly suggests that most people who have left the Republican Party have not become Democrats and would be open to a center-right political party.”
“If a new California-based party can win votes and legislative seats, it could send a signal to politicians around the country that moderation can be a bankable political strategy, helping to break the vise grip of tribal politics that has turned so much of national politics into a blood sport and made it impossible for Congress to pass substantive bipartisan legislation.”
“If a third party has a chance anywhere in the United States, it’s in California. The state allows the two candidates who get the most votes in a so-called open primary, regardless of party affiliation, to advance to the general election.”
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“We may be beginning to see the end of a two-party system.”
— Gov. John Kasich (R), in an interview on This Week.
David Brooks: “All of this would be survivable if the mentality was going away in a few years. But it is not going away. The underlying conditions of scarcity are only going to get worse. Moreover, the warrior mentality builds on itself. As the right pulverizes the left, the left feels the need to pulverize back, and on and on. This is a generational challenge. Trump will be succeeded by some other warrior.”
“Eventually, conservatives will realize: If we want to preserve conservatism, we can’t be in the same party as the clan warriors. Liberals will realize: If we want to preserve liberalism, we can’t be in the same party as the clan warriors.”
“Eventually, those who cherish the democratic way of life will realize they have to make a much more radical break than any they ever imagined. When this realization dawns the realignment begins. Even with all the structural barriers, we could end up with a European-style multiparty system.”
A new NBC News/GenForward poll finds a strong majority of millennials — 71% — say the Republican and Democratic parties do such a poor job of representing the American people that a third major party is needed.
“Sixty-three percent of millennials disapprove of the way President Trump is handling his job as president. But millennials also hold a variety of political institutions in poor regard, and 65% think the country is on the wrong track overall.”
“Some disaffected Republicans and Democrats who say extreme views are co-opting their parties have decided to carve out a middle ground in Utah politics,” the Deseret News reports.
“Taking a centrist approach, the group announced the formation of the United Utah Party at the state Capitol on Monday… it is working to gather the 2,000 signatures needed to become a registered political party in the state. It hopes to have that done in time get a candidate on the ballot for the 3rd Congressional District special election to replace Republican Rep. Jason Chaffetz, who is stepping down June 30.”
“I do not want to talk about the pee pee.”
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Ultimately, what happened to Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party and Jill Stein of the Green Party is what happens to most third-party candidates: They fade at the end. Johnson flirted with 10% national support for much of the race but ended up with just 3.3% of the national vote, while Stein got 1% despite reaching nearly 5% in the RealClearPolitics average in early summer.”
Third party candidates want to be serious contenders, so John Oliver considers them seriously as potential presidents.
“Hillary Clinton and her Democratic allies, unnerved by the tightening presidential race, are making a major push to dissuade disaffected voters from backing third-party candidates, and pouring more energy into Rust Belt states, where Donald Trump is gaining ground,” the New York Times reports.
“With Mrs. Clinton enduring one of the rockiest stretches of her second bid for the presidency, her campaign and affiliated Democratic groups are shifting their focus to those voters, many of them millennials, who recoil at Mr. Trump, her Republican opponent, but now favor the Libertarian nominee, Gary Johnson, or the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein.”