Political Wire

‘I Never Thought I Would Write This Piece’

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Robert Rubin: “The economy has been voters’ top issue in four of the six midterm elections this century — and 2026 appears all but certain to make it five of seven. Beyond the cost of living, the war in Iran and tariffs, America faces a series of daunting longer-term economic challenges, from mounting federal debt to the effects of artificial intelligence.”

“Yet many Americans continue to underestimate one particular potential threat to our economic future: President Trump’s clearly expressed desire to interfere with and even usurp the midterm elections. Nov. 3 could be a defining test for the rule of law in this country, and both our democracy and our prosperity are on the line.”

MS NOW: Democrats are preparing for Trump to try disrupting voting on Election Day.

Justice Kagan Says Rulings Have Intensified Polarization

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“Justice Elena Kagan on Tuesday criticized the Supreme Court’s conservative majority for a series of election-related decisions in recent years that she said have led to more polarization and a dysfunctional democracy,” the New York Times reports.

“Justice Kagan, one of the court’s three liberals, delivered the sharp critique two weeks before hotly contested midterm elections and in front of an ideologically mixed crowd of law students and professors.”

Americans Are Losing Faith in Their Fellow Voters

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“Americans’ trust in their fellow citizens’ democratic judgment has fallen to its lowest recorded level in more than five decades, according to a new Gallup survey,” Axios reports.

“Americans’ growing distrust of political leaders and institutions now extends to one another, with Democrats and Republicans showing similar levels of skepticism.”

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Winning the Midterms Is Not Enough

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William Kristol: “In three weeks, we’re likely to see a Democratic wave breaching—perhaps overwhelming—Republican electoral fortifications. In present circumstances, that Democratic wave will be a pro-democracy wave, and that will be something to celebrate.”

“Yes, I acknowledge that gas prices and other material concerns are probably more important to the voters than the theory and practice of liberal democracy. And, yes, I realize that this election will be more of a referendum on the failures of President Trump and his party than a deep reflection on the principles and institutions of a free society. Still, a thoroughgoing defeat for Trump and Trumpism will be a crucial victory for liberal democracy.”

“But it won’t be a decisive victory. It won’t even guarantee success in 2028—though, as Ron Brownstein noted in our conversation yesterday, there are very few instances in American history of a party retaining the White House when its outgoing president is strikingly unpopular.”

Elected Officials Report Surge in Death Threats

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New York Times: “Serving in public office in the United States is dangerous. From state and local government to Congress, an unending river of violent threats is washing through the mailboxes, offices, voice mail and texts of those who govern the nation. Thousands of public servants are living, working and, in the final weeks of election season, campaigning in a state of fear.”

“And it’s getting worse, officeholders said in dozens of interviews.”

“An investigation by The New York Times examining hundreds of records obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests, court documents and law enforcement logs has found that, over a two-year period from 2024 to August of this year, thousands of violent threats inundated the lives of elected officials in unprecedented ways.”

The Many Ways AI Could Disrupt the Midterms

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Toluse Olorunnipa: “Around the same time that the world learned that swarms of autonomous AI agents were escaping their testing environments and carrying out sophisticated hacking attacks this past summer, researchers who focus on election security were running tests of their own. They wanted to see whether the safeguards that top AI companies had enacted to prevent their technology from disrupting the upcoming midterms would work in the real world. The results were ominous.”

“In response to sample prompts designed to create misinformation, several chatbots produced realistic photos of a man stuffing ballots into a mailbox, a man holding a foreign passport while trying to vote, and FBI agents investigating a voter-registration organization. The chatbots also created fraudulent government documents and deepfake videos of government officials purporting to substantiate election-conspiracy theories.”

Lawmakers Seek Promises They’ll Accept Midterm Results

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“Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans have grown increasingly anxious that the current GOP-controlled Congress could thwart the seating of Democrats in January. A bipartisan group of lawmakers is trying to take the tactic off the table,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Reps. Don Bacon, a Nebraska Republican, and Josh Gottheimer, a New Jersey Democrat, are seeking written pledges from their colleagues to accept the midterm election results.”

Using the Power of the Government to Win Elections

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Paul Rosenzweig: “The principle that government ought to be administered for the benefit of all citizens, not on behalf of one political party, lies at the core of America’s democratic enterprise. The Trump administration couldn’t care less: It appears to see the federal government not as something to steward on behalf of all Americans, but as an opportunity—a set of levers it can pull on to protect its reign.”

“America’s adherence to this principle of executive neutrality has never been perfect, but as a norm it has been honored more than breached.”

The Doomsday Scenario

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Jonathan Last: “When people in my world talk about 2028, there seems to be a baseline assumption that Democrats will retake the White House, probably with a trifecta.”

“That’s what all of the ‘how do Democrats fix things post-Trump’ talk is predicated on. And this isn’t a crazy assumption. Trump is drifting down toward 30 percent approval right now. There are no precedents for a colossally unpopular second-term president suddenly becoming more popular during his last two years.”

“But this morning we got a headline from Brazil that snapped my head back… That’s right. Brazil is about to elect the son of its convicted former would-be dictator. This could absolutely happen here.”

Hundreds of Election Deniers Will Be On the Ballot

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Wired: “On November 3, when voters across the U.S. go to the polls, almost 200 election deniers will be on the ballot. Many of them have repeatedly undermined the very process they are participating in, and they will be looking to win some of the most powerful elected positions in the country—positions that would help determine how voting goes in future elections.”

“Following the primaries, there will be 197 election deniers on the ballot for congressional and statewide races in the midterms across 43 states.”

Ex-Judge Warns Trump Will Challenge Midterm Results

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“Retired federal Judge J. Michael Luttig is sounding the alarm ahead of November’s midterm elections, warning that the country might be ‘sleepwalking’ into another insurrection,” MS NOW reports.

Said Luttig: “That’s exactly what I envision, which is the next Jan. 6, 2021. This time, however, it will be Donald Trump and Mike Johnson refusing to peacefully transfer power to the next Congress of the United States.”

Increased Belief in Voter Fraud Is a Scary Prospect in 2026

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“President Donald Trump messing with the 2026 midterms beforehand — as he’s trying to do by sharply restricting mail ballots — is only part of the potential threat he’s posing to U.S. elections,” CNN reports.

“The other is his demonstrated tendency for claiming elections have been stolen after the fact, which resulted in the largest attack on the U.S. Capitol in 200 years.”

“New polling suggests Trump has kept that soil fertilized with a large portion of the country. Indeed, the president on Friday posted on social media the 5-year-old video of him telling January 6, 2021, rioters to go home and repeating his false claim that he won in 2020.”

Guide for Judges if Law Enforcement Try to Seize Ballots

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“The idea of federal law enforcement seizing ballots in the middle of an active election would have once been considered impossible,” NPR reports.

“Now, as President Trump continues his unprecedented hunt for voter fraud, ballot seizures and search warrants are scenarios voting officials and the legal community are actively preparing for.”

“UCLA’s Safeguarding Democracy Project released a guide Wednesday to help judges navigate search warrant affidavits related to the voting process.”

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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