Bloomberg: “States will soon learn if they’re going to gain or lose ground in the House of Representatives and in presidential elections.”

“By the end of next week, the U.S. Census Bureau will release the first official results of the 2020 Census: the state population counts that will redistribute the 435 House seats, and lock in that configuration for the next five congressional elections, from 2022 to 2030.”

“Danny Moore, the chair of Colorado’s Independent Congressional Redistricting Commission, was removed as the chairman of the commission on Monday after posting election conspiracy theories and derogatory statements regarding the coronavirus on social media,” KMGH reports.

“More than half of the states in the U.S. are at ‘extreme risk’ of congressional districts being drawn to unfairly favor one party, according to a new analysis of state redistricting processes by RepresentUs, a non-partisan advocacy group focused on election reform,” Axios reports.

“Stymied by delayed census data needed for redistricting, some states are considering postponing their 2022 primaries or turning to other population estimates to start the once-a-decade task of redrawing voting districts used for U.S. House and state legislative elections,” the AP reports.

“The U.S. Census Bureau was supposed to provide redistricting data to the states by March 31, but after setbacks from the pandemic, it won’t be ready until mid- to late August and might not be available in an easy-to-use format until Sept. 30. That’s later than the legal deadlines to complete redistricting in some states and could mean less time for court challenges, candidate filing and ballot creation.”

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Though new congressional lines are typically put into effect for election years ending in ‘2’, four states adopted new maps at later points during this last decade.”

“In North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, Republican-friendly maps were thrown out mid-decade in favor of plans that were more amenable to Democrats.”

“If those pro-Republican maps were still in place, there’s a good chance that House Republicans would be in the majority now.”

Arizona Mirror: “The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission made its first staffing decision and saw its first notable partisan split, hiring Brian Schmitt, chief of staff to a Republican Phoenix City Council member.”

“The partisan showdown over redistricting has hardly begun, but already both sides agree on one thing: It largely comes down to the South,” the AP reports.

“The states from North Carolina to Texas are set to be premier battlegrounds for the once-a-decade fight over redrawing political boundaries. That’s thanks to a population boom, mostly one-party rule and a new legal landscape that removes federal oversight and delays civil rights challenges.”

“It’s a collision of factors likely to tilt the scales in the GOP’s favor with dramatic impact: Experts note the new maps in the South alone could knock Democrats out of power in the U.S. House next year — and perhaps well beyond.”

“A six-month delay holding up the data that states use to draw their legislative districts is mangling plans for the 2022 elections, as states discuss postponing primaries and navigating legal deadlines for redistricting that some are now almost certain to miss,” Politico reports.

“At least nine states have constitutional or statutory deadlines to redraw their maps, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, that won’t mesh with such a profound delay in the data delivery. Election officials in some states, such as North Carolina, have recommended moving back early primary dates to make more time for drawing new districts. And both political parties will have to grapple with how to recruit candidates to run for districts that may not exist until just before election season begins.”

“The next round of congressional redistricting is shaping up to be a mess, beset by even more complications and lawsuits than usual,” Axios reports.

“This process will likely help Republicans pick up seats in the House in 2022. Beyond that, though, the pandemic and the Trump administration’s handling of the Census have made this round of redistricting especially fraught — and states will be locked into the results for a decade.”

“Huge states with diversifying and expanding populations — including Texas, Florida and North Carolina — will likely feel some of the most significant impacts.”

“As the once-a-decade redistricting conflicts heat up across the country, both Republicans and Democrats are wrestling with how far to press their advantage in a fight as consequential as any election. For Republicans that means building on the success of 10 years ago — even as some population and political trends work against them. For Democrats, it’s a test of their commitment to the changes they’ve long argued are needed to create a level playing field,” the AP reports.

“The stakes are particularly clear now. Some experts note Republicans could win control of the House in 2022 based on redistricting alone. Three of the states where the GOP has complete control of the map-making — Texas, Florida and North Carolina — are expected to gain a total of six seats. A GOP sweep of those seats would flip the House.”

“But packing Republican voters into new districts in the growing states won’t be easy. Much of the population growth in those states has come in cities, inner-ring suburbs and places with large Black and Latino communities — all key Democratic constituencies.”

“The 2020 census data needed for the redrawing of voting districts around the country are extremely delayed and now expected by Sept. 30,” NPR reports.

“Dogged by the coronavirus pandemic and the Trump administration’s interference with the census schedule, the latest expected release date — six months past the March 31 legal deadline — could throw upcoming elections into chaos in states facing tight redistricting deadlines for Congress, as well as state and local offices.”

Ron Brownstein: “Democrats face a daunting future of severe Republican gerrymandering that could flip control of the House in 2022 and suppress diverse younger generations’ political influence for years to come, according to a new study released today. Those findings underscore the stakes in Democrats’ efforts to pass national legislation combatting such electoral manipulation.”

“The four big states to watch are Texas, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, where the GOP enjoys complete control over the redistricting process.”

Said study author Michael Li: “Those four states, which are seat-rich and where Republicans control the process, could decide who controls the next Congress.”

This is a great site: Professor Justin Levitt‘s guide to drawing electoral district lines.

“With the election over and Democrats in control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, officials in both parties are bracing for a bruising new battle with a different balance of power: the redrawing of congressional maps, where Republicans hold the advantage in many state legislatures across the country, including in key battlegrounds,” the New York Times reports.

“Republicans hold total control of redistricting in 18 states, including Florida, North Carolina and Texas, which are growing in population and expected to gain seats after the 2020 census is tabulated. Some election experts believe the G.O.P. could retake the House in 2022 based solely on gains from newly drawn districts.”