“Democratic turnout for House primaries in a majority-Black Tennessee county surged to the highest level in a decade Thursday, the latest sign that redistricting may be energizing Black voters across the South,” the Washington Post reports.
”A fifth of active registered voters cast a ballot in three Democratic U.S. House primaries held Thursday in Shelby County, which includes Memphis. That’s more than double the turnout percentage for similar contests in 2024.”
“Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD), the only Republican in Maryland’s congressional delegation, is accusing Gov. Wes Moore of backing an amendment to the state constitution that could eliminate his district through redistricting, arguing that the push is driven by the governor’s alleged presidential ambitions,” Fox News reports.
“The amendment, if approved by voters in November, would give the Democratic-controlled General Assembly far greater latitude to redraw the state’s congressional districts ahead of the 2028 election.”
“Democratic turnout for House primaries in a majority-Black Tennessee county surged to the highest level in a decade, the latest sign that redistricting may be energizing Black voters across the South,” the Washington Post reports.
“Maryland lawmakers took a first step toward redrawing their congressional map during a special session on Tuesday, passing a constitutional amendment that could open the door for Democrats to pick up the only Republican seat in the state’s nine-member congressional delegation ahead of 2028,” NOTUS reports.
NBC News: Democrats put redistricting amendment on Maryland’s midterm ballot.
“Missouri’s Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins said Tuesday that he wouldn’t certify a referendum seeking to undo the state’s new GOP-drawn congressional map, arguing that the effort was unconstitutional,” NBC News reports.
“The announcement is set to further fuel the legal battle over the new map Missouri lawmakers approved 11 months ago that carved up one of the state’s two Democratic-held districts.”
“The nation is set to have its least competitive congressional election cycle in years by some measures, with California partly driving the shift,” the Los Angeles Times reports.
“The redistricting carried out in California and nine other states since 2024 has left the nation with an unusually low number of truly competitive districts, narrowing the battle for U.S. House control in this year’s historically consequential midterms cycle to a few dozen races at best.”
“Former President Barack Obama will hold a fund-raiser in late August for the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, a fresh sign that Democrats intend to continue their aggressive push to gerrymander congressional districts ahead of the 2028 election,” the New York Times reports.
The Downballot released the latest update to their ‘hexmap’ of congressional districts that shows every district as the same size — including the new maps adopted by 10 states since the 2024 elections.
Why a new map? “Even though every member of Congress gets just one vote, traditional maps of congressional districts over-emphasize sprawling rural districts while rendering small urban districts almost invisible.”
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Republicans made the House map better for themselves compared to the 2024 map by winning this cycle’s expansive redistricting fight.”
“However, comparing this year’s map to the district lines in place in 2018—the last midterm held under President Trump—puts the 2026 House map in a different light.”
“By a number of metrics, the 2026 House map is no more favorable to Republicans than the 2018 map, and it may actually be a little less favorable.”
“The median House district by presidential performance is less Republican, the number of districts that voted to the right of the nation for president is smaller, and the number of plausible Democratic House targets based on history is comparable.”
“Rep. Cleo Fields — whose Louisiana district was at the center of the Supreme Court decision gutting a key part of the Voting Rights Act — announced Tuesday that he will not seek reelection and will instead run for his old state Senate seat,” NOTUS reports.
David Graham: “Trump has been remarkably successful in his push to gerrymander ahead of the midterms. Several Republican states have redrawn their districts to add GOP-leaning seats, the Supreme Court’s April decision in Louisiana v. Callais allowed other states to move forward with their own maps, and a state court in Virginia shot down retaliatory gerrymandering that would have assisted Democrats. In all, this has given Republicans several more likely seats.”
“But nearly everything else has faltered, including the president’s signature legislative initiative to overhaul elections by, in part, requiring voters to provide proof of citizenship.”
Wall Street Journal: “The unprecedented mid-decade redrawing of maps by both parties has shaken voters across the country, but it is having an amplified impact in many Southern states where Black voters are set to lose power. Those states, including Alabama as well as Tennessee and Louisiana, have new freedom to draw maps without having to carve out majority-minority seats under rules that emerged from the civil-rights era.”
“Redistricting already reshaped the House map for the 2026 midterms. But for House Democrats, it means fewer incumbents are paying dues to the party’s campaign arm, and some are worried it could cause a cash crunch,” NOTUS reports.
Politico: “It’s no secret Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is spearheading a mid-decade redistricting drive to win control of the House. But the results of last week’s primaries in New York City add a new wrinkle to that project: How will he handle foes from within his own party?l
”On June 23, a trio of far-left congressional candidates routed establishment Democrats aligned with the Brooklyn lawmaker. Come 2028, when New York officials hope to redraw those three seats along with the rest of the state’s congressional boundaries, Jeffries would be one of the people influencing the process.”
“The Colorado Supreme Court dealt a significant blow to Democratic hopes to redraw the state’s congressional maps ahead of the 2028 election, finding that the twin ballot initiatives they had sought in order to redistrict in an off year had violated the state constitution,” the New York Times reports.
“The Democrats behind a 2028 redistricting push in Colorado have grown increasingly concerned that the state Supreme Court’s delay in ruling on the validity of their ballot measures could endanger the effort,” the New York Times reports.
“Colorado is one of Democrats’ top targets in the next phase of the national redistricting wars, which resulted in a flurry of redrawn maps for the 2026 midterms but have now moved on to what more can be done in time for 2028.”
Nathaniel Rakich: “It’s possible to imagine nearly three dozen states redrawing their congressional lines by 2030. That would reshape the battleground for House control, though not in the way some Democrats fear. It’s unlikely that Republicans would be able to construct for themselves a large, permanent structural advantage in House elections.”
“If both parties maxed out all the gerrymandering opportunities before them, the number of Democrats and Republicans sent to Congress might not change much. The number of competitive districts, however, would shrink to a mere handful. That would change American politics radically — and for the worse.”
Republican lawmakers in Georgia said Wednesday that they won’t redraw congressional and state legislative districts for the 2028 elections during a special session called by GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, the AP reports.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.