Punchbowl News: “Florida Republicans brazenly carved up their congressional map to add four new red seats at the behest of President Donald Trump and GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis.”
”It’s not quite going as planned.”
”There’s a real possibility that Republicans end up winning just one of the four newly redrawn districts next month. Trump won all these new districts by nine points or more in 2024. But only Democratic Rep. Darren Soto’s central Florida district appears locked up for the GOP right now.”
“House Republicans are quietly scaling back hopes for the 10-seat boost they sought from redistricting nationwide, amid a souring political climate and polls showing a collapse in GOP support among Latino voters in Texas and Florida,” Axios reports.
“On their down days, Republicans privately worry that the great redistricting war of 2026 will net them only one seat nationwide, according to top GOP strategists.”
“For 86 years, Missouri has held on to a nonpartisan system of selecting its top judges. But after the state Supreme Court overruled the GOP’s redistricting push, some Republican lawmakers are calling for the system to be overturned,” ProPublica reports.
“All five districts Republicans targeted when they gerrymandered Texas’ congressional map at Donald Trump’s behest last year nonetheless remain in play, including two seats that had once looked all but impossible for Democrats to hold,” The Downballot reports.
CNN: James Talarico has Democrats dreaming big after decades of dashed hopes in Texas.
“Congressional Democrats and civil rights groups are concerned about a proposed Trump administration change to the U.S. census that would exclude noncitizens without permanent resident status, altering congressional representation and potentially how federal funding is distributed,” CNBC reports.
“Opponents warn the rule, which was posted in September, could have negative effects, potentially shifting congressional power to parts of the country where fewer immigrants live and underfunding education, healthcare, food assistance and emergency management programs.”
“Republicans’ unprecedented mid-decade redistricting push created 14 new strongly red districts,” Punchbowl News reports.
”But with less than a month until Election Day, the GOP is a sure bet to win only five of these races.”
”And here’s a crazy statistic: since Sept. 1, Republican candidates and super PACs have spent nearly $100 million on ads trying to flip the other nine districts.”
“House GOP leaders are now openly acknowledging that their mid-decade redistricting push didn’t work out as well as they’d hoped,” Axios reports.
“Republicans kicked off the redistricting wars hoping new maps would give them a bigger cushion against the historical headwinds facing the president’s party.”
“That advantage is looking a lot smaller than they envisioned.”
“For the third time this month, the Supreme Court rejected Missouri’s bid for one more Republican-leaning congressional district,” the Los Angeles Times reports.
“With no dissents, the justices upheld a state court order requiring the use of a 2022 election map, which favors Republicans in six of the eight districts.”
NBC News: Supreme Court for the third time rejects Republican redistricting push in Missouri.
“The legal drama over Missouri’s congressional districts reached the Supreme Court for a third time on Tuesday night, setting up the justices to deliver the final word on which map the state will use in the midterms,” the Washington Sun reports.
“The fight over Missouri’s congressional map returned to the U.S. Supreme Court for a third time late Tuesday, after an appeals court ordered the revival of new districts backed by President Donald Trump,” the Associated Press reports.
“The new map was drawn to help Republicans gain a U.S. House seat in the pivotal midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress. The Supreme Court has twice blocked efforts to use it in November.”
New York Times: Dispute over Missouri’s congressional map again returns to Supreme Court.
“A federal appeals court reinstated Missouri Republicans’ 7-1 House map to be used in time for the November elections, delivering a boost for several GOP candidates who wanted a more favorable map for the party to be used in the midterm elections,” The Hill reports.
“The ruling offers a temporary victory for Republicans who are looking to add pickup opportunities in the House ahead of November, though the decision is all but certain to be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.”
“A Trump administration proposal to exclude some types of immigrants from the 2030 census might not expand the congressional map for Republicans, and could even result in fewer House seats in red states,” the New York Times reports.
“If congressional seats were redistributed based on recent census figures, excluding undocumented immigrants and other noncitizens without green cards could cause Texas to lose a congressional seat it would otherwise have gained.”
“The unprecedented spate of mid-decade redistricting for the U.S. House has changed the congressional districts for one-tenth of Americans and significantly altered the makeup of at least one-fifth of districts, according to a new study,” the Associated Press reports.
The Atlantic: “Missouri jumped last year into the nation’s redistricting wars, pushing through a new congressional map backed by President Trump that would secure an additional Republican House seat in November. The plan has mostly collapsed, leading to a year of legal fights and confusion for voters. The partisan battle reached the Supreme Court last week and spurred a chaotic back-and-forth among the courts that changed the boundaries multiple times within a single hour.”
“For now, the old map, which was adopted in 2022, is back in effect, but Republican candidates are still battling. A hearing in a federal appeals court is set for tomorrow—one day before the state is required to start making absentee ballots available to overseas voters.”
“The mayhem in Missouri is the latest example of how uncertain and volatile the midterm elections have become.”
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Missouri reverting to its old House districts for 2026 slightly lessens the overall GOP improvement on the national House map, although the map is still more favorable to them than the map in place for 2024 was.”
“A state-by-state scorecard based on our House ratings shows the Republicans gaining between 2 to 6 seats from redistricting this cycle, although there is potential for the final tally to end up somewhere outside of that range.”
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Wall Street Journal: “As the high-stakes midterm elections approach, battles over redistricting and voting are intensifying nationwide. Republicans are trying to keep control of Congress, amid voter frustration with prices and an unpopular war with Iran. Democrats are seeking to gain majorities and restrain President Trump.”
“Nowhere has the fallout been greater than in Missouri, a heartland state that has large rural areas dominated by conservative Republicans—but also has urban areas, including St. Louis and Kansas City, dominated by Democrats.”
“Last year, at Trump’s urging, the GOP-led Missouri legislature redrew the state congressional boundaries mid-decade to benefit Republicans. Cleaver’s district, which for years centered on much of Kansas City and its suburbs, was set to include a swath of rural Missouri, making his chances of re-election much harder.”
“But a grassroots petition drive and legal challenges halted the plan. The Missouri Supreme Court recently ruled the state must hold a public referendum before changing district lines. Republican appeals to the U.S. Supreme Court failed, meaning the original 2022 congressional maps will be on the ballot in November—although Republicans are still trying legal strategies to change that.”
“The U.S. Supreme Court again rejected a push to use Missouri congressional maps backed by President Donald Trump on Thursday, a loss for Republicans trying to maintain control of the House in the fast-approaching midterm elections,” the Associated Press reports.
“The decision appears to clear the way for use of the old maps.”
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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