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You are here: Home / Archives for Redistricting

Redistricting Isn’t Over Yet

January 24, 2023 at 11:04 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Ron Brownstein: “As many as a dozen or more states could redraw the lines governing their congressional elections again before the 2024 election, more than enough to shift the balance of power in a House where the two parties have only managed to eke out mirror image five-seat majorities over the past two elections.”

“Experts agree it’s unprecedented in modern times for this many House seats to remain in flux this long after the decennial redrawing of Congressional districts that last occurred following the 2020 Census.”

With such narrow margins, these fights could decide control of the House.

Filed Under: Redistricting

Judges Strike Down South Carolina Congressional District

January 6, 2023 at 2:43 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A panel of federal judges rules that South Carolina lawmaker drew the 1st Congressional District held by Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) “in such a way that it discriminates against Black voters and must be recrafted by the end of March,” the Charleston Post & Courier reports.

“Mace’s hold on the office is not immediately affected by the decision issued Jan. 6 but it likely means a much different congressional map will be in place in 2024.”

Filed Under: Redistricting

Redistricting Didn’t Hurt House Democrats Overall

January 6, 2023 at 9:43 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Cook Political Report: “Our analysis, using an approach similar to the Cook PVI, arrives at a similar conclusion: Republicans wouldn’t have won the House without gerrymanders in Florida, Georgia, Tennessee and Texas. But overall, Democrats fared slightly better than they would have under old maps thanks to their own gerrymanders in Illinois, Nevada, New Mexico and Oregon and a temporary court-drawn map in North Carolina.”

“Whereas Republicans focused on locking in as many safe GOP seats as possible (some of which have produced McCarthy detractors), Democrats embarked on a riskier strategy of drawing as many Democratic-leaning seats as possible — and it paid off. Democrats won 24 of the 25 seats they set out to draw for themselves in Illinois, Nevada, New Mexico and Oregon — including five seats by less than five points.”

Filed Under: Redistricting

Minority Districts Drop After Redistricting

November 27, 2022 at 1:46 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The number of state legislative districts where racial or ethnic minorities make up a majority or a near majority of the population dropped substantially after the latest round of redistricting, even as those minority groups accounted for virtually all of the population growth the nation experienced over the last decade,” Pluribus reports.

Filed Under: Redistricting

Redistricting Gave Republicans Control of the House

November 25, 2022 at 1:36 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “After a shockingly disappointing election night, Republicans will have a razor-thin majority of no more than five seats (and maybe as small as four). A margin that small means that the GOP could not have reclaimed control without their redistricting advantage.”

“Republicans drew several red districts in states where they controlled the redistricting process: one each in Tennessee, Texas and Georgia, and three in Florida. Without them there would be no GOP majority.”

Filed Under: 2022 Campaign, Redistricting

Gerrymandering Likely Cost Democrats the House

November 14, 2022 at 11:08 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

It may take several more days to count the votes, but it appears that Republicans are on track to win 221 seats, just three more than needed for the majority in the House of Representatives.

As President Biden told reporters: “I think we’re going to get very close in the House. I think it’s going to be very close, but I don’t think we’re going to make it.”

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Filed Under: 2022 Campaign, Members, Redistricting

Supreme Court Dismisses Challenge of New Michigan Map

November 7, 2022 at 3:17 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday dismissed the appeal of Michigan Republicans who had challenged the state’s new congressional map as drawn by the redistricting commission last year,” the Detroit News reports.

“The Republicans had argued that the congressional map unjustifiably deviated from constitutional requirements for apportionment by failing to have more equal population among the 13 districts, pointing to a roughly 1,200-person difference between the largest and smallest districts by population.”

Filed Under: Judiciary, Redistricting

DeSantis Redistricting Plan May Have Broken Florida Law

October 11, 2022 at 1:29 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

ProPublica finds evidence contradicting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) claim that his plan to redraw the state’s congressional districts wasn’t driven by partisanship.

“The new details show that the governor’s office appears to have misled the public and the state legislature and may also have violated Florida law. DeSantis aides worked behind the scenes with an attorney who serves as the national GOP’s top redistricting lawyer and other consultants tied to the national party apparatus.” A former state Supreme Court chief justice calls it “significant evidence of a violation of the constitutional amendment.”

Filed Under: Redistricting

Gerrymandering Isn’t Giving the GOP a Huge Edge

September 30, 2022 at 7:13 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nate Cohn: “You might assume that the House map is heavily gerrymandered toward Republicans, especially after Republicans enacted aggressive gerrymanders in critical states like Texas and Florida. Many of you might even presume that this gerrymandering means that the House isn’t merely likely to go to the Republicans, but that it’s also out of reach for Democrats under any realistic circumstances.”

“In reality, Republicans do have a structural edge in the House, but it isn’t anything near insurmountable for the Democrats. By some measures, this is the fairest House map of the last 40 years.”

Filed Under: 2022 Campaign, Redistricting

Partisan Gerrymandering Actually Peaked In 2012

August 26, 2022 at 12:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sam Wang: “From press coverage, you might think that partisan gerrymandering is the worst it’s ever been. But a look at the data suggests that at a federal level, the problem is actually getting better – enough to make a difference in Congress.”

“All that coverage tends to overlook the gains that reformers have made in the last decade at the level of individual states.”

Filed Under: Redistricting

Top Ohio Senate Republican Seeks to Appeal Map

August 17, 2022 at 4:11 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Ohio Senate President Matt Huffman (R) wants to take the state’s congressional map to the U.S. Supreme Court, arguing that the Ohio Supreme Court overstepped by meddling in mapmaking,” the Cincinnati Enquirer reports.

Filed Under: Redistricting

Illegal Maps in Four States Are Being Used Anyway

August 8, 2022 at 10:23 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Since January, judges in Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana and Ohio have found that Republican legislators illegally drew those states’ congressional maps along racial or partisan lines, or that a trial very likely would conclude that they did. In years past, judges who have reached similar findings have ordered new maps, or had an expert draw them, to ensure that coming elections were fair,” the New York Times reports.

“But a shift in election law philosophy at the Supreme Court, combined with a new aggressiveness among Republicans who drew the maps, has upended that model for the elections in November. This time, all four states are using the rejected maps, and questions about their legality for future elections will be hashed out in court later.”

Filed Under: Redistricting

Memos Show Trump’s Secret Strategy for Census Question

July 20, 2022 at 9:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Former President Donald Trump’s administration spent years trying to add a census citizenship question as part of a secret strategy for altering the population numbers used to divide up seats in Congress and the Electoral College,” NPR reports.

“Long kept from the public, the Trump administration memos and emails were disclosed by lawmakers following a more than two-year legal fight that began after Trump officials refused to turn them over for a congressional investigation.”

Filed Under: Redistricting, Trump Legacy

Ohio Supreme Court Strikes Down Congressional Maps

July 19, 2022 at 11:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Ohio Supreme Court struck down the state’s Republican-drawn congressional map Tuesday, ruling that districts used in the May primary violate anti-gerrymandering rules in the state Constitution,” the Columbus Dispatch reports.

“In a 4-3 decision, the Supreme Court rejected Ohio’s 15-district congressional map and ordered Ohio lawmakers to redraw a new one for the 2024 elections within 30 days. If they can’t, the Ohio Redistricting Commission will have 30 days to adopt a congressional map.”

Filed Under: Redistricting

How Redistricting Gives Republicans New Political Power

July 9, 2022 at 7:24 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Republicans are favored to take control of the House in this year’s midterm elections, and redistricting has given them a built-in advantage that could span the next 10 years,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The GOP is expected to net a handful of seats based solely on new district lines drawn to reflect population changes captured by the 2020 census. Perhaps more important, the party will start with a larger base of safe seats than Democrats. Such an advantage, which could stretch over the next five election cycles if the new maps survive court challenges and the country’s political polarization remains largely unchanged, will allow the Republican Party to direct more resources at fewer seats in seeking a majority. It will also make the party less vulnerable to suffering a large loss of seats in a single election.”

Filed Under: Redistricting

Nebraska Quirk Used New Map to Fill House Vacancy

July 6, 2022 at 9:22 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Some voters in last month’s special election to replace former Rep. Jeff Fortenberry in Nebraska’s 1st District won’t be represented by the Republican who won, Mike Flood, until January — and only if Flood wins again in November,” Roll Call reports.

“Meanwhile, it’s an open question whether anyone, besides the state’s two senators, represents them in Congress for the remainder of this year.”

“That’s because the Cornhusker State’s redistricting law called for using new district maps enacted last year for the June 28 special election to fill the remainder of Fortenberry’s term. But congressional rules define lawmakers’ constituents for the remainder of this year using the maps that were in place for the 2020 election, when Fortenberry last won.”

Filed Under: 2022 Campaign, Redistricting Tagged With: NE-1

Supreme Court Revives Louisiana Voting Map

June 28, 2022 at 4:20 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Supreme Court on Tuesday reinstated a congressional voting map in Louisiana that a federal judge had said diluted the power of Black voters,” the New York Times reports.

“The court’s three liberal members dissented.”

Filed Under: Judiciary, Redistricting

Federal Judge Will Draw New Louisiana Maps

June 18, 2022 at 5:36 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A federal judge will draw a new Louisiana congressional map with a second Black district after the Legislature failed to draw new boundaries of its own in a Special Session that ended Saturday without the passage of any bill,” the Lafayette Daily Advertiser reports.

Filed Under: Redistricting

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Follow me on Twitter, Mastodon and Post.News.

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