Ron Brownstein: “As many as a dozen or more states could redraw the lines governing their congressional elections again before the 2024 election, more than enough to shift the balance of power in a House where the two parties have only managed to eke out mirror image five-seat majorities over the past two elections.”

“Experts agree it’s unprecedented in modern times for this many House seats to remain in flux this long after the decennial redrawing of Congressional districts that last occurred following the 2020 Census.”

With such narrow margins, these fights could decide control of the House.

A panel of federal judges rules that South Carolina lawmaker drew the 1st Congressional District held by Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) “in such a way that it discriminates against Black voters and must be recrafted by the end of March,” the Charleston Post & Courier reports.

“Mace’s hold on the office is not immediately affected by the decision issued Jan. 6 but it likely means a much different congressional map will be in place in 2024.”

Cook Political Report: “Our analysis, using an approach similar to the Cook PVI, arrives at a similar conclusion: Republicans wouldn’t have won the House without gerrymanders in Florida, Georgia, Tennessee and Texas. But overall, Democrats fared slightly better than they would have under old maps thanks to their own gerrymanders in Illinois, Nevada, New Mexico and Oregon and a temporary court-drawn map in North Carolina.”

“Whereas Republicans focused on locking in as many safe GOP seats as possible (some of which have produced McCarthy detractors), Democrats embarked on a riskier strategy of drawing as many Democratic-leaning seats as possible — and it paid off. Democrats won 24 of the 25 seats they set out to draw for themselves in Illinois, Nevada, New Mexico and Oregon — including five seats by less than five points.”

“The number of state legislative districts where racial or ethnic minorities make up a majority or a near majority of the population dropped substantially after the latest round of redistricting, even as those minority groups accounted for virtually all of the population growth the nation experienced over the last decade,” Pluribus reports.

ProPublica finds evidence contradicting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) claim that his plan to redraw the state’s congressional districts wasn’t driven by partisanship.

“The new details show that the governor’s office appears to have misled the public and the state legislature and may also have violated Florida law. DeSantis aides worked behind the scenes with an attorney who serves as the national GOP’s top redistricting lawyer and other consultants tied to the national party apparatus.” A former state Supreme Court chief justice calls it “significant evidence of a violation of the constitutional amendment.”

Sam Wang: “From press coverage, you might think that partisan gerrymandering is the worst it’s ever been. But a look at the data suggests that at a federal level, the problem is actually getting better – enough to make a difference in Congress.”

“All that coverage tends to overlook the gains that reformers have made in the last decade at the level of individual states.”

“Ohio Senate President Matt Huffman (R) wants to take the state’s congressional map to the U.S. Supreme Court, arguing that the Ohio Supreme Court overstepped by meddling in mapmaking,” the Cincinnati Enquirer reports.

“Since January, judges in Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana and Ohio have found that Republican legislators illegally drew those states’ congressional maps along racial or partisan lines, or that a trial very likely would conclude that they did. In years past, judges who have reached similar findings have ordered new maps, or had an expert draw them, to ensure that coming elections were fair,” the New York Times reports.

“But a shift in election law philosophy at the Supreme Court, combined with a new aggressiveness among Republicans who drew the maps, has upended that model for the elections in November. This time, all four states are using the rejected maps, and questions about their legality for future elections will be hashed out in court later.”

“The Ohio Supreme Court struck down the state’s Republican-drawn congressional map Tuesday, ruling that districts used in the May primary violate anti-gerrymandering rules in the state Constitution,” the Columbus Dispatch reports.

“In a 4-3 decision, the Supreme Court rejected Ohio’s 15-district congressional map and ordered Ohio lawmakers to redraw a new one for the 2024 elections within 30 days. If they can’t, the Ohio Redistricting Commission will have 30 days to adopt a congressional map.”

“Republicans are favored to take control of the House in this year’s midterm elections, and redistricting has given them a built-in advantage that could span the next 10 years,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The GOP is expected to net a handful of seats based solely on new district lines drawn to reflect population changes captured by the 2020 census. Perhaps more important, the party will start with a larger base of safe seats than Democrats. Such an advantage, which could stretch over the next five election cycles if the new maps survive court challenges and the country’s political polarization remains largely unchanged, will allow the Republican Party to direct more resources at fewer seats in seeking a majority. It will also make the party less vulnerable to suffering a large loss of seats in a single election.”

“A federal judge will draw a new Louisiana congressional map with a second Black district after the Legislature failed to draw new boundaries of its own in a Special Session that ended Saturday without the passage of any bill,” the Lafayette Daily Advertiser reports.