Political Wire

The Curse of the Incumbent

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David Graham: “When Donald Trump completed his own presidential comeback in the 2024 U.S. election, one common explanation was that a fundamental change had occurred in American politics, realigning demographics, parties, and policy for the long run.”

“A competing narrative, especially popular among comparative scholars, focused on a wave of anti-incumbent results in elections around the world. In this view, the results were more a rejection of Joe Biden’s administration and his vice president, Kamala Harris, than they were an embrace of Trump—and part of a broad trend of dissatisfaction among voters in many countries.”

“The specific motivations of the global anti-incumbent wave have never been entirely obvious. They include a post-COVID hangover but also deeper running dissatisfaction with democratic systems of government. Whatever the reasons, the trend is an important shift.”

How Corruption Is Popping Up in Ads Everywhere

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“Amid a knockdown, drag-out fight for control of Congress, one issue is dominating advertising and transcending partisan divides, instead pitting challengers against incumbents: Everyone is running against members of Congress trading stocks,” NBC News reports.

“At least one TV or digital ad mentioning the issue has run in the last month in nearly every competitive race for Congress.”

For members: Affordability Meets Corruption

Trump Has Other Ways to Meddle in the Midterms

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The Economist: “The president appears out of options to change voting rules before November. That does not stop other machinations. Three worries predominate: that the president might send federal officers to the polls to intimidate voters, order police to seize ballot boxes, or pressure MAGA-friendly election administrators to refuse to certify results.”

“State officials, Democratic congressmen and litigation non-profits have been war-gaming those scenarios for months.”

Most Primaries Didn’t Matter This Year

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Washington Sun: “150 winners of primary elections, to fill 435 House seats, faced no opposition in the spring and summer contests, and now head into the general election without any doubt of their victory in November. A huge majority of those are incumbents seeking reelection.”

“Moreover, an additional 233 winners of House primaries sit in uncompetitive districts and are all but assured of winning, making the November general election an afterthought. That’s 88% of the entire House essentially already chosen through a primary process that often lacks competition itself.”

GOP Lawmaker Who Defied Trump Declared Winner

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“Indiana’s Supreme Court on Thursday ruled after a months-long recount that a Republican incumbent state senator narrowly defeated his Trump-backed challenger in the GOP primary for the state Senate seat,” NBC News reports.

“The court declared state Sen. Spencer Deery the winner of the Senate District 23 Republican primary in May, certifying that he beat challenger Paula Copenhaver by three votes, and ordering that his name appear on the general election ballot in November.”

Fired DeSantis Staffer Gets Second Chance with Rubio

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“In 2023, a young speechwriter for the presidential campaign of Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida suffered a seemingly devastating career setback,” the New York Times reports.

“Within days of Nate Hochman’s promotion of a pro-DeSantis video that flashed an image embraced by white supremacists, public outcry grew, and he was among a group of staff members fired by the campaign.”

“But Mr. Hochman’s career was not over… This year, Mr. Hochman took a position as a senior aide to one of the most powerful figures in the federal government… According to Mr. Hochman’s email signature, he is also Mr. Rubio’s chief speechwriter.”

Tonight’s Primary Results

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“Tuesday’s Democratic primaries in Massachusetts are likely to determine who will represent the state in Washington next year,” the New York Times reports.

“The state is so Democratic that its primaries are usually more consequential than general elections in congressional races. The state’s last Republican House members left office after the 1996 elections. Scott Brown, who won a special election in 2010 after the death of Edward Kennedy, was the only Massachusetts Republican to serve in the Senate since 1979.”

Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

Leave your reactions in the comments as the results come in. 

Subpoenas Issued in Dueling Dan Sullivans’ Race

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“The federal investigation related to the dueling Republican Senate candidates in Alaska with the same name has entered a new phase,” NBC News reports.

“A grand jury last week issued subpoenas to compel information from witnesses linked to the campaign of Dan J. Sullivan.”

“The former schoolteacher who recently registered as a Republican is under investigation for potentially being part of a conspiracy to confuse voters and steal votes away from the incumbent, Dan S. Sullivan, who has been in office since 2015.”

Florida Primary Underscores State’s New Identity

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“Tuesday’s primary punctuates just how much Florida, once the nation’s largest swing state, has been transformed into a solidly Republican bastion,” the New York Times reports.

“Florida’s electoral contests are no longer the nail-biters that led to past recounts and countless late-night jokes. Its politics now reflect how Republicans have consolidated power in President Trump’s adopted home state, which has become a proving ground for the next generation of ambitious Republican politicians.”

New York Times: Florida primary underscores state’s new identity as a Republican juggernaut.

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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