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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192

November Surprises

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 192: November Surprises

America’s Support for Capitalism Has Plummeted

July 8, 2026 · 1:16 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Americans are losing confidence in two main pillars of society: capitalism and democracy,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Just under half of Americans say capitalism is working very well or even somewhat well, down from 60% who said so about a decade ago, according to a new Wall Street Journal-NORC survey. Only 35% are even fairly sure that the nation offers people the ability to get good jobs and achieve the American dream.”

“Confidence in the nation’s system of government is even lower. Only 12% say democracy is working very well or extremely well, and a mere 16% say average citizens have considerable influence on politics.”

Democracy, Economy

The Founding Fathers Would Be ‘Abjectly Disappointed’

July 5, 2026 · 2:07 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Ken Burns said the drafters of the U.S. Constitution “would be abjectly disappointed” by the state of the United States in 2026, especially since the legislative branch has effectively “abdicated so much of the power,” The Wrap reports.

Democracy

Trump’s Anti-Patriotic Trap

July 2, 2026 · 10:06 am ET · Leave a Comment

Anne Applebaum: “To hold the country together, we still require functioning institutions. But we also need symbols: a flag, a national anthem, shared ceremonies that remind us of our founding ideas. Thanksgiving. The Fourth of July. Presidential inaugurations. The State of the Union address. Indeed, convention speeches are traditionally used to invoke unity and ‘abstract’ American values too.”

“Since Donald Trump and J. D. Vance took office last year, they have set out to destroy both the institutions and the symbols… Because they believe that only their clan represents America, that only people like them deserve to be considered ‘real’ Americans, and that the American government exists to serve them alone, they need to undermine anything that tells a more unifying story.”

“With that goal in mind, Trump has deliberately and methodically defaced the White House, a structure originally designed to evoke the classical virtues—simplicity, modesty, symmetry—that were widely admired at the time of America’s founding.”

Democracy, White House

The Founders Warned Us About Someone Like Trump

June 23, 2026 · 11:18 am ET · Leave a Comment

John Avlon: “The U.S. Constitution was designed to protect the rights of the people against the rise of a would-be tyrant. The founders understood they were embarking on a rebellious project that had never succeeded before. As John Adams scowled, ‘There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.’ Their aim was to build a structure that could withstand the forces that destroyed democracies in the past.”

“That’s why the founders explicitly warned about the dangers of a demagogue, the poison of hyperpartisanship, the corrosive effects of corruption and foreign influence, the politicization of religion, and the erosion of the separation of powers.”

“Yes, by those basic standards, we’re living through the founders’ nightmare. But the right response is not civic despair but a defiant resolve to reclaim American patriotism and fix what’s been broken so that we can strengthen our democracy to survive the next 250 years.”

Democracy, Political History

The Second Gilded Age Is Much Uglier Than the First

June 15, 2026 · 8:59 am ET · Leave a Comment

Paul Krugman: “Many people have compared our current era to the Gilded Age. But that analogy is deeply unfair to the Gilded Age. Like the robber barons of yore, today’s oligarchs are immensely wealthy — even wealthier, relative to the economy as a whole, than their predecessors.”

“And extreme wealth corrupts our democracy. But the corruption is deeper and more destructive now than it was then: The mitigating factors that once put some brakes on the harm done by excessive wealth concentration are now mostly gone.”

Democracy, Economy

Member feature

How Democrats Can Reverse Trumpism

May 14, 2026 · 3:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Assuming Democrats can win back Congress and the White House by 2028, they will face an immediate question: How much of Donald Trump’s damage can actually be undone?

Democrats must begin planning a sweeping pro-democracy agenda.

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Democracy, Members, Talking Points

The DNC Is Winning Where It Matters Most

May 6, 2026 · 1:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Michael Kapp: “The media evaluate party strength through the same lens used to evaluate campaigns: money raised, money spent, and quarterly comparisons. But parties are not campaigns. A campaign is designed to win one election. A party is supposed to build the infrastructure that makes repeated election wins possible.”

Democracy

When It Takes a King to Praise Democracy

May 2, 2026 · 10:55 am ET · Leave a Comment

Susan Glasser: “The King’s biggest applause line was a tribute to Magna Carta, the thirteenth-century compact between an English monarch and his restive nobles, which, Charles noted, has become a pillar of American constitutional jurisprudence, with the Supreme Court citing it at least a hundred and sixty times in its history, not least to establish ‘the principle that executive power is subject to checks and balances.’”

“It was a telling sign of our dysfunctional times that members of Congress from both parties, having been increasingly iced out of decision-making by a President claiming unprecedented executive power for himself, immediately rose for a standing ovation. There were whoops and cheers and what appeared to be grins of amazement at the King’s cheek.”

“Did it matter that Donald Trump did not get the joke?”

Democracy

The Scapegoat Scam

April 17, 2026 · 8:30 am ET · Leave a Comment

Adam Serwer: “The Hungarian strongman Viktor Orbán, who lost his election in a landslide on Sunday after 16 years in power, presented himself as a defender of Western civilization. But at best, his lofty rhetoric was a code for bigotry and a justification for the persecution of minorities; at worst, it was a scam to fleece Hungarians by persuading them to blame everyone but those responsible for their problems. Maybe both.”

“Eventually Hungarians decided that a major source of their problems was Orbán himself. Maybe someday Americans will come to a similar realization about Orbán’s great admirer, Donald Trump, who praised the former Hungarian leader before the election as a ‘fantastic man’ who had done a ‘fantastic job.'”

“Orbánism was, more or less, a model for what Trump and the Republican Party are trying to do in the United States.”

Democracy

If Hungary Can Do It

April 16, 2026 · 9:30 am ET · Leave a Comment

Hanna Rosin: “Until the day they voted, many Hungarians found it hard to believe that Orbán would be ousted, despite what independent polls showed. Autocrats have a way of seeming inevitable. Nonetheless, Orbán lost to opposition leader Péter Magyar by too large a margin to paper over with propaganda. Magyar had appealed to the people directly, traveling the country, avoiding culture-war issues, and talking mostly about economic hardship. Orbán swiftly conceded, and overnight, Hungarians were dancing in the streets.”

“Whatever happens next in Hungary, Orbán’s downfall contains obvious warnings for MAGA and Trump: Propaganda has its limits. Concerns about affordability are real. True democracy can reassert itself in a single election. Reality can bend only so far.”

Democracy, Foreign Affairs

A Blow to Global Authoritarianism

April 13, 2026 · 12:35 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Jacob T. Levy: “It’s not just that Orbán losing inspires hope in other competitive-autocratic countries ruled by right-wing nationalist authoritarians. It’s that his loss materially changes things in those other countries, because he’s been operating as a headquarters and funding source for the international ideological movement.”

Timothy Ash: “People may go along with a kleptocracy for as long as an economy is doing well, but ultimately, if the economy starts failing, and they see all these guys lining their pockets, then you can expect a reaction.”

Democracy

Illiberalism Is Not Inevitable

April 13, 2026 · 11:39 am ET · Leave a Comment

Anne Applebaum: “Orbán’s loss brings to an end the assumption of inevitability that has pervaded the MAGA movement, as well as the belief—also present in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric—that illiberal parties are somehow destined not just to win but to hold power forever, because they have the support of the “real” people. As it turns out, history doesn’t work like that. “Real” people grow tired of their rulers. Old ideas become stale. Younger people question orthodoxy. Illiberalism leads to corruption.”

“And if Orbán can lose, then his Russian and American admirers can lose too.”

Democracy

The Next Coup Attempt

April 6, 2026 · 10:49 am ET · Leave a Comment

Timothy Snyder: “We are seven months away from the most consequential midterm election in the history of the United States. Meanwhile, we are fighting a war. These are the structural conditions for a coup attempt in which a president tries to nullify elections and take permanent power as a dictator.”

“If we see this, we can stop it, overcome the movement that brought us to this point, and make a turn towards something better.”

Democracy

U.S. Downgraded in Democracy Index

March 18, 2026 · 1:32 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The speed with which American democracy is currently dismantled is unprecedented in modern history,” one of the world’s top democracy researchers says in a new report, CNN reports.

Democracy

On Another Planet

March 6, 2026 · 3:08 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Andrew Sullivan: “For me and many others, the Iraq War of 2003 was a life-altering lesson in humility. In the wake of 9/11, with trauma warping my frontal cortex, I backed a pre-meditated, pre-emptive war for regime change in the Middle East — something stupid and immoral I soon realized, however well intentioned. It changed me. But at least in those tense, polarized months of 2002 and 2003, we had hashed out the case for war thoroughly beforehand, as democracies do. A thousand op-eds bloomed; critical votes were taken in the Congress; political careers were weighed in the balance; and Colin Powell went to the UN to present the ‘evidence.'”

“Seems like a wholly different world, doesn’t it?”

“Come with me a little further back in time to the Persian Gulf War of 1991. That was a war started by Saddam Hussein, not us. How did we go about a new war in the Middle East back then? Well, we had another big public debate, another trip to the UN, and then another vote in the Congress. It was closer than we remember: just 52-47 in the Senate (with one abstention). We then went to war with a very precise aim — ending the occupation of Kuwait — after amassing a coalition of 35 countries, and did so to cement the status of international law in the post-Cold War world.”

“Seems like another planet, doesn’t it?”

“And there’s a reason for that. We had a functioning liberal democracy then, a constitutional system that was imperfectly but actually followed, a responsible president, and international law on our side.”

Democracy, Political History

On Gallup’s Decision to End Presidential-Approval Polling

February 21, 2026 · 4:02 pm ET · Leave a Comment

David Frum: “The Dire Meaning of Gallup’s Announcement”

“Last week, the polling firm gallup announced that it would no longer survey presidential-approval ratings. This news stirred suspicions. President Trump’s numbers are declining badly, much worse than Joe Biden’s at the equivalent point in his presidency. Gallup’s most recent presidential-approval poll, in December, had Trump at 36 percent—well below the RealClearPolitics poll average of 42 percent. Trump is known for taking punitive action. He sued The Des Moines Register and its pollster, Ann Selzer, for an ego-bruising 2024 survey that suggested he might lose Iowa to Kamala Harris.”

“Assuming the worst is often prudent, but Gallup’s own explanation—citing changes in the company’s business strategy—makes a sad commercial sense. Quality polling companies such as Gallup inhabit a world of rising costs, declining rewards, and multiplying competition. Polling worked because people once accepted a call on the phone the same way they accepted jury duty: as one of the small obligations of citizenship that helped democracy work better. Large numbers of citizens have come to perceive the institutions of democracy as unfriendly to them. The dispassionate stranger on the phone inquiring how a citizen intended to vote—and why—is one of those institutions.”

Democracy

Supreme Court’s ‘Declaration of Independence’

February 20, 2026 · 3:43 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Adam Liptak: “Starting with the 2024 decision that gave President Trump substantial immunity from prosecution and continuing through a score of emergency orders provisionally greenlighting an array of his second-term initiatives, Mr. Trump has had an extraordinarily successful run before the Supreme Court.”

“That came to a sudden, jolting halt on Friday, when Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., writing for six members of the court, roundly rejected Mr. Trump’s signature tariffs program. It was the Supreme Court’s first merits ruling — a final judgment on the lawfulness of an executive action — on an element of the administration’s second-term agenda. It amounted to a declaration of independence.”

“It also served as another in a series of clashes between the leaders of two branches of the federal government cut from very different cloth: the controlled, cerebral chief justice and the biting, brazen president.”

Democracy

FCC Chair: Air ‘Patriotic, Pro-America Content’

February 20, 2026 · 2:58 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Politico: “FCC Chair Brendan Carr wants broadcasters to air ‘patriotic, pro-America content’ to support the White House’s plans to celebrate the nation’s 250th anniversary.”

“’As America’s 250th anniversary approaches, it is important to reflect on the ideals and events that have defined our past while keeping an eye towards our country’s bright future,’ Carr said in a statement Friday. ‘I am calling on broadcasters to pledge to provide programming that promotes civic education, national pride, and our shared history.’”

Democracy

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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