Speaker Mike Johnson has a message for Republicans worried about the midterm elections: Don’t believe the polls.

Said Johnson, while campaigning in Texas: “Do not believe the polls right now. I’m telling you they are wrong. They’re wrong. They are over sampling Democrats, and they are underestimating Republicans, as they always do.”

Just minutes into last night’s debate, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) faced a question that was almost certainly inevitable: Would he promise to serve his full six-year Senate term if re-elected?

Ossoff didn’t flinch: “Yes, I will. I have zero interest in running for president. I’m not running for president. I’m running for re-election to the Senate.”

The final three weeks of the midterm campaign are shaping up as a test of whether money can overcome an unfavorable political environment.

Republicans have a substantial financial advantage, but Democrats are running strong in the polls, leading or tied in many of the races that will determine control of Congress.

Just two years ago, the idea that Democrats could win back the Senate in 2026 seemed almost fanciful.

The electoral map was simply too difficult. Republicans held a 53 to 47 majority and Democrats needed to flip four seats without losing any of their own.

We’ve seen poll after poll pointing to an enthusiasm gap heading into the midterms.

And it works in both directions: Democrats appear more motivated to turn out, while a meaningful share of Republican voters seem more inclined to stay home.

Republicans already had plenty of reasons to worry about the midterms.

Here’s another one.

The latest leaked audio from Ken Paxton’s Senate campaign raises an unusually basic question: Who exactly is running it?

At a private fundraiser last month, Paxton reportedly complained that he has little control over either his campaign’s message or the issues driving the race.

The Senate map is getting bigger.

The latest New York Times/Siena polls show Democratic candidates tied or ahead in five states that should be comfortably Republican territory.

If you want to understand what’s driving the midterm elections, start with this chart.

It shows just how badly the political conversation in Washington has diverged from what voters are actually worried about.

A Political Wire reader asks:

I see that a lot of people dislike both parties. I also see the DNC has a debt. It’s also clear that there’s a growing discontent with these two parties specifically. What does it take for a political party to implode?

Democrats appear to have the advantage heading into the midterm elections.

But there’s an interesting wrinkle buried in some of the state polling: Democratic Senate candidates are often running noticeably better than Democratic candidates for governor in the very same states.

Earlier this year, Democrats looked like a party at war with itself.

Primary after primary exposed a widening divide between the party’s insurgent left and its more traditional establishment wing, with several centrist candidates getting steamrolled along the way.

There’s no question Democrats are more enthusiastic about this election than Republicans.

Poll after poll has found an enthusiasm gap, sometimes a substantial one. In the latest Marquette Law School survey, for instance, 47% of Democrats said they were very enthusiastic about voting, compared with just 32% of Republicans.

Politico this week offered a neat way to frame the midterm elections: Which kind of money will matter more — the enormous sums Republican groups are pouring into competitive races or the money voters are spending as gasoline prices climb toward $5 a gallon?

It’s a clever framing. But it gives campaign spending far more power than it deserves.

President Trump’s lavish welcome for Chinese President Xi Jinping drew criticism from both the left as well as some prominent Republicans.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) called it a “WTF moment.” Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker (R-MS) questioned the decision to honor Xi with a state visit. Even some Republicans who defended the summit acknowledged the awkward optics.

“It’s the economy, stupid” is still the first rule of politics.

But corruption is quickly becoming a close second in this election.

Six years ago this month, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died just weeks before a presidential election.

Senate Republicans wasted no time. Barely five weeks later, they confirmed Amy Coney Barrett to replace her, locking in a Supreme Court seat before voters had their say.

There’s always a chance the polls are missing something.

Democrats know this all too well from the 2016 and 2024 presidential campaigns.