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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 191

Blue Wave Update

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 191: Blue Wave Update

What to Watch Until Election Day

September 8, 2026 · 8:28 am ET · Leave a Comment

We’re less than two months from Election Day and the broad contours of the midterm elections have come into focus.

Donald Trump’s approval rating has sunk to the lowest point of his presidency. Gas prices — actually all prices — are way up. And the United States remains stuck in a costly war with Iran with no strategy to get out.

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2026 Campaign, Members, Talking Points

Germany Takes a Hard Right Turn

September 7, 2026 · 7:23 am ET · Leave a Comment

The far-right Alternative for Germany’s strong showing in yesterday’s state elections could have consequences well beyond German politics.

The big loser is Chancellor Friedrich Merz. He’s not yet in danger of losing power, but the AfD has almost doubled its national support in the last two years while backing for Merz’s party has collapsed.

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Foreign Affairs, Members, Talking Points

Democrats Get a Boost in the Map Wars

September 4, 2026 · 10:56 am ET · Leave a Comment

I got to this a little late last night because I was at the U.S. Open watching some great tennis, but Democrats got two potentially significant redistricting wins.

First, the Missouri Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the state must use its old congressional map in this year’s general election.

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Members, Talking Points

The Democrats’ Red State Workaround

September 4, 2026 · 10:20 am ET · Leave a Comment

Democrats may be stumbling into a way to “win” in some of the reddest states in the country.

The trick is not running a Democrat.

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Members, Talking Points

What We Learned This Summer

September 3, 2026 · 9:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

Labor Day is the unofficial end of summer, though with at least another six weeks of outdoor tennis ahead of me, I’m not quite ready to concede the point.

Still, it’s a useful moment to reflect on what we learned politically this summer — and what it means for the fall campaign.

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Members, Talking Points

The Hegseth Warning Signs Were There

September 3, 2026 · 7:35 am ET · Leave a Comment

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) called on President Trump to fire Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

And his criticism was especially harsh.

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Members, Talking Points

Hakeem Jeffries Is No Nancy Pelosi

September 2, 2026 · 8:55 am ET · Leave a Comment

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) suddenly has a leadership problem.

Reps. Jared Golden (D-ME) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) stunned Democratic leaders by voting with Republicans on a procedural rule setting the terms for debate on a package of bills.

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House of Representatives, Members, Talking Points

Can a Democrat Win in South Carolina?

September 1, 2026 · 12:27 pm ET · Leave a Comment

South Carolina’s Republican Senate primary may be over, but Ralph Norman apparently isn’t ready to leave the race behind.

Asked what he would tell voters who remain undecided in the general election, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) had a straightforward answer: “Vote for Ralph Norman.”

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Members, Talking Points

The GOP’s Trump Trap

August 31, 2026 · 9:33 am ET · Leave a Comment

Republicans have a fairly obvious problem heading into the midterm elections.

They need to persuade many of the lower-propensity voters who turned out for Donald Trump to show up again when he is not on the ballot.

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Members, Talking Points

Trump Nationalizes the Midterms

August 28, 2026 · 10:19 am ET · Leave a Comment

A week ago, President Trump told a South Carolina rally exactly how he wants Republicans to think about the midterm elections.

Said Trump: “What I really want you to do is pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot. Just say that I’m on the ballot one more time.”

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Members, Talking Points

Elizabeth Warren’s Tariff Logic Gets Twisted

August 27, 2026 · 5:24 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is demanding answers from Apple after the company received nearly $2.2 billion in tariff refunds.

Wrote Warren: “This amounts to a multi-billion dollar windfall, which could still grow if more of your refund petitions are granted.”

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Members, Talking Points

The Great Technology Backlash

August 27, 2026 · 7:35 am ET · Leave a Comment

What once sounded like the plot of a spy thriller is quickly becoming a real political issue.

And it’s happening much faster than Washington seems capable of responding.

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Members, Talking Points

Trump Can’t Say He Wasn’t Warned

August 25, 2026 · 10:45 am ET · Leave a Comment

President Trump’s war with Iran is shaping up as one of the most spectacular foreign policy blunders of any modern presidency.

The Iranian people are hardly better off. Iran’s leadership appears more entrenched than ever. And the regime now has even more incentive to acquire nuclear weapons, threaten its neighbors and target American interests in the region.

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Members, Talking Points, White House

The Fight Over Trump’s Mail-Voting Order Isn’t Over

August 24, 2026 · 5:32 pm ET · Leave a Comment

The Supreme Court cleared the way for President Trump’s new mail-voting requirements to take effect before the midterms.

But that does not mean the order will take effect.

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Members, Talking Points

Canada Bets Trump Will Blink First

August 24, 2026 · 10:47 am ET · Leave a Comment

President Trump’s attempt to strong-arm Canada into a new trade agreement has instead pushed the two countries toward a full-blown trade war.

That’s a dangerous development for both sides. The Canadian and American economies are deeply intertwined, with enormous amounts of goods, energy and investment crossing the border every day.

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Members, Talking Points

No Better Than a Coin Flip

August 20, 2026 · 8:54 pm ET · Leave a Comment

President Trump’s endorsement record in governor’s races looks strong at first glance.

But it looks far less dominant once the easy wins are stripped away.

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2026 Campaign, Members, Talking Points

Another Expensive Miscalculation by National Democrats

August 19, 2026 · 10:06 am ET · Leave a Comment

Angie Nixon’s upset victory in Florida’s Democratic U.S. Senate primary surprised almost everyone.

Almost everyone except, apparently, Angie Nixon.

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2026 Campaign, Members, Talking Points

Alaska’s Senate Seat Is In Play

August 19, 2026 · 9:39 am ET · Leave a Comment

Alaska’s Senate race suddenly looks a lot more interesting.

With roughly 80% of the ballots counted, Mary Peltola (D) was running more than five points — and nearly 8,000 votes — ahead of Sen. Dan Sullivan (R).

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2026 Campaign, Members, Talking Points

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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