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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 191

Blue Wave Update

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 191: Blue Wave Update

The Fake Poll Problem

August 18, 2026 · 10:59 am ET · Leave a Comment

We learned this week that a new poll showed Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass (D) with a comfortable lead in her re-election bid.

Bass’ campaign was understandably pleased with the result.

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Members, Polling, Talking Points

The Seven-State Battle for Senate

August 16, 2026 · 4:39 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Republicans hold a 53-to-47 Senate majority—and the vice president breaks ties in their favor.

That means Democrats must flip at least four seats, not three, to take control of the upper chamber.

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Members, Talking Points

Why Attacking Democrats as Communists Won’t Work

August 13, 2026 · 12:16 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Karl Rove has some advice for Republicans worried about the midterms: Stop calling every Democrat a communist.

Instead, he argues, Republicans should use Democrats’ own words against them.

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Members, Talking Points

Four Lessons from the Democratic Primaries

August 12, 2026 · 4:37 pm ET · Leave a Comment

The news media loves a simple story about the Democratic Party: the socialists are taking over.

The primary results so far tell a much more complicated story.

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Members, Talking Points

A Playbook for Progressives

August 12, 2026 · 9:40 am ET · Leave a Comment

Money can buy a lot in a Democratic primary. But it can’t necessarily buy credibility with Democratic voters.

Minnesota’s Senate primary offered the latest example.

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Members, Talking Points

Another Warning Sign for Republicans

August 12, 2026 · 9:17 am ET · Leave a Comment

One of the more interesting numbers from last night’s primaries came from Minnesota.

Roughly 677,000 voters participated in the Democratic Senate primary, compared with just 404,000 in the Republican primary — a stunning 67% turnout advantage for Democrats.

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2026 Campaign, Members, Talking Points

The Extraordinary Ruse to Protect Trump

August 11, 2026 · 10:48 am ET · Leave a Comment

The Washington Post’s extraordinary scoop about President Trump secretly switching planes because of an Iranian assassination threat is remarkable.

But one detail stands out, even if it seems ordinary: Trump lied about what was happening.

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Members, Talking Points

Ask Political Wire: The Tradeoffs of Ranked-Choice Voting

August 10, 2026 · 8:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A Political Wire reader asks about the pros and cons of ranked-choice voting — and, more importantly, who benefits from it.

The basic idea is straightforward: Instead of choosing one candidate, voters rank them in order of preference. If nobody wins a majority, the last-place candidate is eliminated and those ballots are redistributed to the voters’ next choices. The process continues until someone wins.

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Members, Talking Points

Mike Johnson May Finally Get a Manageable Caucus

August 7, 2026 · 3:26 pm ET · Leave a Comment

For more than a decade, every Republican House speaker has faced the same problem: the biggest threat to their leadership came from within their own conference.

John Boehner battled the Tea Party. Paul Ryan never fully tamed the Freedom Caucus. Kevin McCarthy was ultimately toppled by members of his own party.

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House of Representatives, Members, Talking Points

Judging a Book by Its Cover

August 7, 2026 · 10:26 am ET · Leave a Comment

At first glance, Sen. Thom Tillis’ (R-NC) new book, How to Lose Friends and Antagonize Presidents, looks like it might be a genuine act of political courage.

In an era when few Republicans are willing to challenge Donald Trump, a senator writing about the costs of standing up to a president sounds refreshingly unusual.

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Members, Political Books, Talking Points

The Democratic Civil War That Never Happened

August 6, 2026 · 11:10 am ET · Leave a Comment

For months, the Democratic Senate primary in Michigan was framed as a looming civil war — a proxy fight over the party’s future that would leave deep scars.

Instead, it ended with something much less dramatic: Democrats acting like a political party.

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A Candidate Who Wasn’t Running Won Anyway

August 6, 2026 · 9:55 am ET · Leave a Comment

One of the strangest primary results of the cycle came this week in Michigan.

Navy veteran Amir Hassan (R) had the backing of President Trump, Republican leaders and the advantages that usually come with establishment support.

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Bill Lee Defies Trump Again

August 5, 2026 · 10:12 am ET · Leave a Comment

It’s not often that a prominent Republican openly defies Donald Trump. It’s even rarer when it’s the same Republican doing it twice.

On the eve of Tennessee’s primary, Gov. Bill Lee (R) endorsed a conservative challenger to embattled Rep. Andy Ogles (R), directly undercutting Trump’s preferred candidate.

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Members, Talking Points

Money Can’t Buy This Election

August 5, 2026 · 8:12 am ET · Leave a Comment

Money is still flooding into American politics. But it may not be buying what it used to.

Much of this year’s political analysis has focused on the Democratic Party’s ideological divisions. That’s a real story.

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Members, Talking Points

The GOP Nomination Is Vance’s to Lose

August 4, 2026 · 1:29 pm ET · Leave a Comment

It’s impossible to know who Democrats will nominate for president in 2028. The field is likely to be large, unsettled and genuinely competitive.

The Republican race may be very different.

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2028 Campaign, Members, Talking Points

Improving Political Wire Without Changing What Works

August 3, 2026 · 11:39 am ET · Leave a Comment

Thanks to everyone who responded to the member survey. 

The most reassuring result was how many of you said some version of “keep doing what you’re doing.” That message came through clearly: improve the fundamentals, but don’t clutter the site or turn it into something else.

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Members, Talking Points

A New Way to Monetize the Presidency

August 3, 2026 · 10:49 am ET · Leave a Comment

Donald Trump has set plenty of records as president. Among them are the historically weak approval ratings he posted in both his first and second terms.

But his real innovation may be finding new ways to monetize the presidency itself.

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Members, Talking Points

The GOP’s Silence on Max Miller

August 3, 2026 · 9:57 am ET · Leave a Comment

When allegations of abuse surfaced against Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner (D), Democrats wasted little time pushing him off the ticket.

Republicans have shown no similar urgency when it comes to Rep. Max Miller (R-OH).

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2026 Campaign, Members, Talking Points

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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