The Mythology of Third Party Bids

Nate Silver: “Having looked at data on dozens of third-party candidates in other races — mostly for offices like Congress and governor when building election models — I’m skeptical that they serve as spoilers as often as their critics claim. Third-party support tends to collapse down the stretch if the candidates aren’t seen as viable…”

“Third-party candidates typically also get less support in swing states, where voters know a protest vote could be more costly.”