“Democrats are heading into the final stretch of the 2026 midterms with their largest lead yet in the race for Congress and President Donald Trump’s approval rating at a significant low,” NBC News reports.

“A 9-percentage-point advantage for Democrats when it comes to control of Congress is part of a steady deterioration of the political environment for Republicans. The parties started the road to this November effectively tied in the weeks after President Donald Trump returned to office last year, but independents have gradually begun to prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress. And those voters have soured on Trump and his economic policies in particular.”

Nate Silver: “So if you take the polls at face value, we’re seeing a blue wave that’s… overwhelmingly concentrated in red states. As I wrote, there’s a coherent story behind it. And the evidence for it has been consistent enough that it probably has to count as the ‘base case.'”

“But there’s also some risk here for Democrats. Precisely those groups with whom they’re making the largest gains are those where polls have most overestimated Democrats in recent years.”

“There are also potentially huge, lopsided rewards. If the map is reverting more to something pre-Trump-like, that was a map where Barack Obama won Iowa and Ohio twice. Meanwhile, in the House, Republican gerrymanders in states like Florida and Texas were implicitly premised on the GOP having made permanent gains among Hispanics.”

The Downballot: “Throughout this year’s just-concluded primary season, there’s been one consistent storyline: Democratic primaries have seen much higher turnout than their Republican counterparts. But does this meaningfully indicate what we might expect in November?”

“It turns out the answer is very much yes.”

“In midterms over the past 80 years, there’s been a surprisingly tight relationship between voting behavior in a given cycle’s primaries and the House popular vote in the general election that follows. Based on that relationship, this year’s primary turnout suggests that Democrats would win the House vote by an enormous 13-point spread.”

Seth Masket: “If you’ve been following the midterm election polling over the past week or so, the big story has been the sudden expansion in Democrats’ leads, both in many individual races and in national polling. Just in the past few weeks, Democratic odds of winning the Senate have gone from 50-50 to 64% at the FiftyPlusOne model and 65% in Nate Silver’s model. The median forecast for House elections at FiftyPlusOne has Democrats picking up 39 seats — not too far from my 46-seat forecast I made back in the spring, which I thought was insane when I wrote it.”

“The reasons for an overall Democratic lean this year are well documented. But in terms of the recent boost for Democrats, one can make a case that this is the product of the Republican midterm convention that Donald Trump organized September 9th-10th.”

Dan Pfeiffer: “During midterm elections, the incumbent president is almost always a drag on their party. Voters quickly grow impatient with the lack of progress and tend to want to check the recently elected President.”

“However, the President usually has something to offer his party—a popular accomplishment or at least some progress on solving a problem. In 2010, the Democrats lost more than 60 seats in the House, but Obama was still pretty popular and could at least argue that the worst of the financial crisis was behind us. In 2018, Trump was unpopular, but voters still liked his economy and gave him credit for managing it well.”

“The NBC poll shows that Trump really offers Republicans nothing. His political problems are historic, and voters are rejecting not just him, but every element of his agenda.”

NBC News: 43% of voters want midterm vote to “signal opposition to Trump.”

Nate Silver: “The streak of excellent polls for Democrats continues. The latest New York Times/Siena poll shows the generic ballot at D +8, and this week’s YouGov/Economist wave has it at D +12 among likely voters.”

“As a result, Democrats’ chances of retaking the Senate are up to 65 percent in our Deluxe forecast. That’s the highest they’ve been this cycle.”

Ed Kilgore: “While there are plenty of race ratings and election forecasts weighing the odds of a Democratic takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives in November, the single most reliable indicator historically has been the so-called generic congressional ballot, a poll question asking voters which party they want to control the House.”

“It has probably become a bit more reliable of late given the steady rise of straight-ticket voting. And right now, the generic ballot numbers are spiking for the Democratic Party.”

Check the Polling Dashboard for the latest.

Nate Cohn: “Today’s New York Times/Siena poll finds that the conditions for a so-called wave in November’s midterm elections might be coming into place. The only question is whether — and where — Democrats will be able to ride it.”

“Overall, Democrats lead Republicans, 51 percent to 43 percent, among likely voters on the generic ballot question, which asks voters which party they will support for Congress in their district.”

“That’s ‘blue wave’ territory. At least in terms of the national vote, the Democratic margin in the poll — 8.5 points — would almost exactly match the party’s 8.6-point margin in 2018. And it would exceed the winning margins for the party out of power in other recent wave elections, like in 1994, 2006 and 2010.”

MS NOW: House Democrats expand the map — and the definition of a Democrat.