Axios: “Kalshi is launching the American Power Index, aiming to offer a holistic view of which party currently holds more power and where the tide may be turning.”

“The index blends current control of the House, Senate and White House with Kalshi’s real-time market forecasts on future electoral outcomes.”

Gallup will no longer measure presidential approval ratings, the Washington Post reports.

Washington Post: “Betting on political events on prediction markets has grown sharply in recent months. There is $129 million at stake on political markets on Kalshi, the company said. About 370,000 people are staking more than $90 million on politics at Polymarket, which lacks regulatory approval to serve American bettors.”

“Many of those wagers hinge on actions by President Donald Trump or his administration, including whom he will name as the next Federal Reserve chairman; whether the United States will strike Iran in the next six months; and even the words Trump might say in his State of the Union address next month.”

You’ll want to bookmark this new poll tracking site: Fifty Plus One.

“They refuse to put up polls that correctly show me at 65% in popularity.”

— President Trump, slamming Fox News polls.

As CNN notes, when Joe Biden insisted he’d seen polls that showed him ahead despite the many that showed him behind, it was taken as evidence of his disconnect from reality.

President Trump appears to be in deep denial about his historically low approval ratings, the Daily Beast reports.

Said Trump, on Truth Social: “Except what is written and broadcast in the Fake News, I now have the highest poll numbers I’ve ever had, some in the 60’s and even 70’s. Thank you.”

Patrick Ruffini writes that iOS 26 “will move calls and texts outside of a sender’s close contacts to an unknown senders tab. Many will welcome this as a way to fight spam.”

“But a big unintended consequence of this will be to make it harder for pollsters to reach a representative sample of Americans.”

“President Trump’s strategy to ‘flood the zone’ may be working to keep his approval rating from sinking even lower,” the New York Times reports.

“Voters who have not heard much about some of the many major news events from the first 100 days of Mr. Trump’s second term have a higher opinion of the job he is doing, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll. A little under half of the 42 percent of voters who approved of the job Mr. Trump is doing as president said they had not heard much about at least some of the ups and downs of his administration’s decisions.”

“Trump advisor Stephen Miller told Fox News anchor John Roberts that the network needs to ‘fire its pollster’ in a live segment on Tuesday after the latest polls showed that the president’s approval rate was only at 44%,” The Wrap reports.

President Trump is fuming after a series of bad polls marking his 100th day in office and wrote on Truth Social that these pollsters are “criminals” and “should be investigated for ELECTION FRAUD.”

He added: “They are sick, almost only write negative stories about me no matter how well I am doing.”

Trump has already sued the Des Moines Register and pollster J. Ann Selzer over the publication of a poll that incorrectly predicted a victory for Kamala Harris in Iowa.

With FiveThirtyEight now shuttered, the New York Times has begun a new effort to track public opinion surveys, starting by collecting all polls on President Trump’s job approval.

Monmouth University is planning to imminently shutter its lauded polling institute, the New Jersey Globe reports.

Nate Silver: “The short answer is that the polls were biased again — but not to the same extent that they overestimated Joe Biden in 2020. Nor, with no clear favorite heading into Election Day, was the outcome anywhere near as much of a surprise as in 2016 (unless perhaps you were consuming too much ‘hopium’).”

“By some measures, in fact, 2024 was a considerably above-average year. The polls weren’t that far off the mark. The problem was that nearly all of them erred in the same direction, again underestimating Trump and other Republicans.”

There were some big changes in the pollster ratings.

New York Times: “While election polling has been around for more than a century, election forecasts have come to the forefront only in the past decade and a half. And while polls are intended to provide a snapshot in time, taking the pulse of how Americans are feeling about a race, forecasts go a step further, analyzing the polling and other data to make a prediction about who is most likely to win, and how likely.”

“But this year, with the polls already showing a razor-thin presidential race, the forecasts often indicated that the race was tied nationally or in swing states, or they gave one candidate or the other only a slight edge.”

“These results raise the question: What is the value of these election forecasts? Proponents say they help synthesize the available information and that more data is better than less. They also argue that the forecasts this year performed well, generally — capturing the uncertainty of a close race, while holding out for the possibility that Donald Trump could sweep the swing states, as he did.”

“But critics say forecasts add more noise than signal — and may even be doing harm.”