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You are here: Home / Archives for Polling

No Matter the Polling Method, Biden Is Ahead

November 1, 2020 at 10:58 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nate Cohn: “This morning, a big wave of polls showed Joe Biden with a clear lead. Nearly all of these were sponsored by major media organizations and conducted via live phone interviews. If you want to check out what we had to say about them, you can scroll down a bit farther on the page. TLDR: Biden’s still ahead by a lot.”

“This afternoon, we got a big wave of polls showing a very similar result, but by very different means. Nearly all were conducted online or by automated phone calls. Emerson, Ipsos, YouGov (here as part of the Cooperative Election Study) and SurveyMonkey are all fairly familiar pollsters with this approach…”

“I don’t want to get into the ins and outs of which methods might be best. What’s important: Mr. Biden seems to hold a significant lead, no matter the methodology.”

Filed Under: 2020 Campaign, Polling

No Late Shift Toward Trump So Far

October 28, 2020 at 8:36 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News study has found no evidence, so far, of the kind of late surge toward President Trump among undecided voters that helped produce his unexpected wins in 2016.

When pollsters asked themselves how so many missed signs that Trump would win the 2016 election, one factor they identified was a late swing toward him in the last days of the campaign.

Filed Under: 2020 Campaign, Polling

‘The Needle’ Won’t Be Used on Election Night

October 24, 2020 at 3:46 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The one thing most likely to conjure nightmares of the 2016 election night for opponents of Donald Trump is the Needle,” the AP reports.

“A graphic on The New York Times’ website, the Needle measured in real time the probability of victory for Trump or Hillary Clinton as votes were counted. Its steady movement triggered anxiety for Clinton supporters, who repeatedly refreshed the page, and elation for Trump fans.”

“The Needle won’t be making a reappearance on Nov. 3, one change in the world of election probability gurus following the unexpected 2016 result.”

Also curious: “Nate Silver’s influential FiveThirtyEight blog used a number, not a needle, for the same task four years ago but won’t on election night 2020.”

Filed Under: 2020 Campaign, Polling

If Trump Wins, Polling Is Dead

October 23, 2020 at 9:05 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Pollster Frank Luntz told Fox News that if poll predictions are wrong about the 2020 election between President Trump and Joe Biden, his “profession is done” in terms of faith and confidence from the public.

Said Luntz: “Well, I hate to acknowledge it, because that’s my industry — at least partially. But the public will have no faith. No confidence. Right now — the biggest issue is the trust deficit. And pollsters did not do a good job in 2016. So if Donald Trump surprises people. If Joe Biden had a 5 or 6 point lead, my profession is done.

Filed Under: Polling

Biden Leads By Enough to Avoid Polling Misfire

September 30, 2020 at 5:29 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nate Cohn: “For the first time since we started our poll tracker several weeks ago, Joe Biden leads by enough to withstand a repeat of the polling error in 2016.”

“If the polls were exactly as wrong as they were four years ago, Mr. Biden would hold the Clinton states and flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nebraska’s Second District, giving him more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win.”

“Of course, the polls won’t be exactly as wrong as they were in 2016. They could understate support for Donald Trump by an even greater degree. But there are good reasons to believe that many causes of 2016’s poll misfire are less likely this time around.”

Filed Under: 2020 Campaign, Polling

There’s Little Evidence for ‘Shy’ Trump Voters

September 22, 2020 at 12:45 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Morning Consult survey finds little basis for the theory that there are “shy” Trump voters who don’t tell pollsters the truth about who they will support.

Filed Under: 2020 Campaign, Polling

A New Twist on Polling Averages

September 18, 2020 at 10:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Upshot has an interesting twist on polling averages, showing the key battleground states along with what would happen with a polling error similar to those in 2016 or 2012.

But Jonathan Bernstein has two caveats: “One is that the chart assumes any error would be in the same direction, which it may not be; I’d rather they demonstrated the size of the error, which could favor either candidate. The other thing is that the ‘polling error’ here includes the final three weeks of polls in each of those previous elections, but there’s good reason to believe that the race shifted in Donald Trump’s direction in the final days in 2016, so part of what’s being called an error here is really polls taken before voters changed their minds.”

Filed Under: 2020 Campaign, Polling

Are There Really ‘Shy’ Trump Voters?

September 16, 2020 at 4:38 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Philip Bump: “A number of recent polls at the state level have measured both the presidential election and Senate races. If people were wary of revealing support for Trump specifically, it’s safe to assume that Trump would trail the Republican Senate candidates.”

“For the most part, though, the opposite is true.”

Filed Under: Polling

Have Pollsters Figured Out How to Poll the Midwest?

September 15, 2020 at 6:43 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sean Trende: “In 2016, as I was preparing to write my ‘Why Hillary Will Win’ piece, I decided to have my able then-assistant, David Byler (now of Washington Post fame), do a bit of research. His job was to look up the share of the electorate that pollsters were anticipating for whites without college degrees and for African Americans.”

“What he found put an end to the piece. It seemed a big bet was being placed on 2012 levels of black turnout occurring in 2016 and, more importantly, that pollsters were badly underestimating turnout for whites without college degrees. In previous years, that hadn’t really mattered – whites with and without college degrees voted Republican at roughly the same levels. Underestimating the share of whites without college degrees and overestimating whites with college degrees wouldn’t have mattered in 2012 or 2008, because their votes were fungible.”

Related for members: The Uncertainty In This Election

Filed Under: Polling

The Uncertainty In This Election

September 15, 2020 at 11:22 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

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Filed Under: 2020 Campaign, Members, Polling

Why National Polling Still Matters

September 13, 2020 at 10:48 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Harry Enten: “Let’s state it up front: winning the popular vote means nothing in and of itself. You only become president if you win the Electoral College.”

“That said, the national polling matters a lot. We have a ton of it, unlike in a number of swing states. It’s more accurate than the state polling on average. Most importantly, we have a fairly good idea of what Biden’s margin needs to be nationally in order to win in the Electoral College.”

Key takeaway: “If Biden wins by more than 5 points nationally, he’s almost certainly going to win enough electoral votes to get to at least 270 and take the Electoral College. There’s simply little record of a difference between the margin in the key swing states and the national vote being greater than 5 points.”

“If Biden wins by somewhere between 3 and 5 points nationally, he’ll be the clear favorite in the Electoral College, even if there is some non-negligible chance Trump could emerge victorious.”

Filed Under: 2020 Campaign, Polling

Trump Says Fox News Polls Are ‘Fake’

September 3, 2020 at 11:31 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump on Twitter:

“Fox News Polls are, as in the past, Fake News. They have been from the beginning, way off in 2016. Get a new pollster. I believe we are leading BIG!”

Filed Under: Polling

Trump Says You Can’t Fairly Poll Registered Voters

August 20, 2020 at 4:59 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump claimed it’s not possible to do fair polls of registered voters — only likely voters — because many registered voters have died, CNN reports.

He did not explain how dead voters answer polls.

Filed Under: Polling

Why the Forecasts Still Give Trump a Chance

August 12, 2020 at 8:57 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

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If you’re already signed in and still seeing this message, your subscription has expired. To renew your membership, navigate to your account, adjust your credit card information and click Renew Now.

Join for just $6 a month or $60 a year.

Filed Under: 2020 Campaign, Members, Polling

How to Look at National Polls

July 29, 2020 at 3:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nate Silver says national polling trends are more important than the lead itself.

“In other words, I don’t really care if Biden us up 8 nationally or whatever. I care about the numbers in Wisconsin, Florida, etc. But if Biden has gained 2 points in national polls, it’s likely that he’s also gained roughly 2 points in Wisconsin and  Florida since they were last polled.”

“In theory, you can also impute these trends from state polls (i.e. if Biden is gaining in Michigan, he’s probably gaining in Wisconsin) and our model does do that too. But national polls give you a high volume of polls from a relatively constant set of pollsters—making trend detection easier.”

Filed Under: 2020 Campaign, Polling

Swing State Pollsters Still Grappling with 2016 Problem

June 17, 2020 at 7:21 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Pollsters aren’t deliberately skewing their surveys against the president and his party, as Trump’s orbit alleges. The national polls showing Trump trailing Biden by an increasing margin aren’t ‘phony’ or rigged.”

“But some pollsters, especially the relatively few who conduct surveys in battleground states, are still grappling with the same problems that plagued those polls four years ago. In fact, most pollsters believe that, on balance, state polls are overstating the scale of Biden’s advantage.”

“That was precisely the problem in 2016: The national polls were largely accurate, to within the margin of error. But there were too few state polls, and many of those that were conducted failed to collect accurate data, especially from white voters without college degrees in key swing states.”

Filed Under: 2020 Campaign, Polling

Trump Campaign Demands CNN Retract Poll

June 10, 2020 at 1:40 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump’s campaign is demanding CNN retract and apologize for a recent poll that showed him well behind Joe Biden, CNN reports.

The demand, coming in the form of a cease and desist letter to CNN President Jeff Zucker, was immediately rejected by the network.

Filed Under: 2020 Campaign, Polling

Trump Hires Pollster to Denounce Poll

June 8, 2020 at 5:16 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

After a new CNN poll came out showing Donald Trump trailing Joe Biden by 14 percentage points, the president announced he has retained Republican pollster John McLaughlin to write a memo denouncing the poll.

However, Jonathan Chait points out McLaughlin is “a laughingstock within the profession.”

“McLaughlin is notorious for producing rosy polling data on behalf of his clients. (Or, at least, purportedly on behalf of his clients, who often find themselves unpleasantly surprised on election night.) A lengthy stream of overly optimistic polls culminated in McLaughlin convincing his client, Eric Cantor, that he was leading primary challenger David Brat by 34 points in 2014. Cantor lost by 11, at which point leading Republicans began begging their party not to hire him.”

McLaughlin has a FiveThirtyEight pollster rating of C/D and is one of the lowest-rated polls in their database.

Filed Under: 2020 Campaign, Polling

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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