“Andy Burnham’s Labour Party is leading Nigel Farage’s Reform UK for the first time in more than a year, according to a new poll, adding to signs that Britain’s new premier has boosted the standing of the governing party,” Bloomberg reports.
“If a general election were held tomorrow, 27% of respondents to a JL Partners survey said they would vote Labour, compared to 25% for Reform.”
“President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s advantage over right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro narrowed ahead of Brazil’s October election, a new poll found,” Bloomberg reports.
“Lula would earn 46% to Bolsonaro’s 45% in a runoff scenario, according to the BTG Pactual/Nexus survey published Monday.”
“The 80-year-old incumbent led by 6 points, 49% to 43%, in an AtlasIntel poll released last week, while a Datafolha survey released in late July found him ahead by 5 points.”
“Turkey detained a rising opposition mayor who wrested control of one of Istanbul’s most symbolically important conservative districts, widening a crackdown that has already reshaped the country’s political landscape,” Bloomberg reports.
“The Kremlin has initiated a new crackdown on anti-war voices ahead of Russia’s parliamentary elections in September, barring candidates from running if they show any sign of opposing the bloody, expensive and increasingly unpopular military operation in Ukraine,” the Washington Post reports.
“While repression of political opposition forces is nothing new in President Vladimir Putin’s Russia, the new clampdown is jarring because for a moment this spring, it seemed like a rare window had opened for dissent, as the authorities appeared to create a pressure release valve for growing dissatisfaction over the war.”
Semafor: Russia’s war narrative falters.
“German Chancellor Friedrich Merz came under criticism from his own party members after a cabinet reshuffle, which was meant as a fresh boost for his leadership, turned into chaos,” Bloomberg reports.
“Andy Burnham has promised to disagree with Donald Trump if necessary, including in public, in his first big broadcast interview since becoming prime minister,” The Guardian reports.
“Burnham’s comments came as Wes Streeting, the new defence secretary, said he did not believe the Trump administration was looking for allies who ‘suck up,’ but rather those with the confidence to set out disagreements when needed.”
“Brazil has denied visas to two senior U.S. State Department officials whom the Trump administration planned to send to scrutinize the fairness and integrity of the country’s electoral system before the October 4 presidential vote,” Bloomberg reports.
“The Brazilian Foreign Ministry confirmed to Bloomberg News that it had denied the visas. The government saw the visit as election interference.”
Politico: “The collapse of the center and the rise of extremes is a global trend… Even in that bilious context, France stands out as a land of political desolation — a country where voters are so despairing and the center and left so depleted that Marine Le Pen, criminal conviction and all, may well be the next president.”
“Prime Minister Mark Carney swept to power promising an ‘elbows out’ stance against President Trump’s tariff threats and rhetoric, vowing he would never accept a bad trade deal,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Sixteen months later, Carney says he has avoided making a bad deal but critics say it has come at a cost: a series of trade concessions to the U.S. that are beginning to add up.”
“Andy Burnham is set to become the U.K.’s seventh prime minister in a decade on Monday, with investors and market watchers already questioning his policy agenda,” CNBC reports.
“King Charles will formally ask Burnham to form a government at Buckingham Palace this morning ahead of his official appointment as prime minister.”
Wall Street Journal: “Large though it may be, Germany’s economy is far from healthy. Growth has been flatlining since 2019. Battered by U.S. tariffs and Chinese competition, manufacturers have been shedding thousands of jobs. A desperate government is grasping for ideas to get the engine going again.”
“One of them: to shore up consumption, which has stagnated in recent years, by opening up retail across the whole week. Yet the effort faces formidable cultural and bureaucratic barriers, as evidenced by Günes’s clashes with what he calls the Sunday shopping police.”
“Andy Burnham wanted to take over as Britain’s prime minister on a wave of hope, positive vibes and a promise to end the Labour Party infighting that marred Keir Starmer’s premiership. That optimism is fading before he’s even taken office,” Bloomberg reports.
“Burnham will complete his ascent to power when he enters 10 Downing St. on Monday. Yet even some of his own supporters fret that his transition into government has been dominated by a policy vacuum, indecision in his inner circle, a high-profile falling out with one of his main allies and a nascent rebellion from Labour’s left flank — the faction that fought to get him the job in the first place.”
“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is bracing for a fight to stay in power as he heads toward his first election since a Hamas-led attack shocked the country and plunged it into nearly three years of war,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The country’s longest-serving leader, who has held the prime minister’s officer, on and off, for a total of almost two decades, oversaw one of the most tumultuous periods in its history in the wake of the Oct. 7, 2023 attack. Since then, he has faced criticism over his handling of the wars in Gaza, Iran and Lebanon and Israel’s souring relations with the West, but also for a host of deeply divisive domestic issues that have split the electorate.”
“Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, was dissolved Friday, paving the way for a vote in late October.”
“Andy Burnham will be the U.K.’s new prime minister after becoming Labour’s leader Friday,” Axios reports.
“Burnham vaulted from regional politics to the cusp of Downing Street within weeks — an unusually rapid ascent that leaves him little time to prepare for mounting economic and political challenges.”
“He spent seven years as the mayor of Greater Manchester before he was reelected to Parliament in June. He is due to officially become PM on Monday.”
“Every political alliance comes with a price. Brazil’s Bolsonaro family may have just discovered theirs,” Bloomberg reports.
“For more than a year, they turned to Donald Trump as former President Jair Bolsonaro fought to avoid conviction over his attempted coup and escalated his confrontation with Brazil’s institutions.”
“Now, the U.S. decision to slap 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods has given the family’s nemesis, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the perfect opportunity to cast himself as Brazil’s defender against foreign interference — just three months before presidential elections.”
“Andy Burnham will officially become leader of Britain’s governing Labour Party on Friday, clearing his final hurdle to taking office as prime minister next week,” the Associated Press reports.
“The center-left party will announce the result of a leadership contest to replace departing Prime Minister Keir Starmer, in which Burnham was the only contender. He had secured nominations from 379 of the 403 Labour lawmakers in the House of Commons as of Thursday night.”
Bloomberg: The work of disappointing people begins as soon as Burnham enters No. 10.
“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is passing laws aimed at strengthening his rightist-religious political bloc before tight elections in October,” Bloomberg reports.
“At the center of the drive are measures to ensure military exemption for ultra-Orthodox men, along with curbing the attorney general’s powers and tightening government oversight of media.”
“The moves are proving highly controversial in Israel, with the head of the military among those voicing their criticism. But while they could alienate some voters, Netanyahu likely sees them as the best way to stay in office.”
“A Brazilian Supreme Court justice barred presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro from visiting his father, former leader Jair Bolsonaro, for 90 days, effectively preventing any visits until after the first round of October’s election,” Bloomberg reports.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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