Should You Believe the Polls?

Nate Silver: “Most analysts seem to have little to no confidence in the polling, but maybe they should. Polls in the past two midterms were pretty accurate and unbiased. More important, they may not be projecting anything all that remarkable. ‘Waves’ are very normal in the midterms and almost the default outcome.”

“You might expect a bigger-than-average wave given Trump’s approval numbers, gas prices, Iran and Epstein. I could absolutely see the polls being wrong again, especially in the Midwest, where they have overestimated Democrats in the past. But polling error can run either way; I could imagine Republican turnout collapsing, giving Democrats an even bigger rout.”