What Might a Polling Miss Look Like?

Sean Trende: “While I can come up with stories about why polls this year might be underestimating Republicans on balance, I can also come up with theories about why polls are now underestimating Democrats on balance.”

“One obvious explanation is that pollsters are overly sensitive about misses in 2016, 2020, and 2024 and have overcorrected for them, effectively solving for Republican turnout problems in their polls that will still exist in the wild. Another is that pollsters are simply weighting 2024 turnout patterns too heavily.”